current position:Home>Robbing Peter to pay Paul, DCG is to save the Genesis gray to sell?

Robbing Peter to pay Paul, DCG is to save the Genesis gray to sell?

2022-11-24 10:31:43Sina Finance-Blockchain

  来源:链得得  作者|宋宋

  作为DCGAn important part of the layout,GenesisThe financial crisis also had a major impact on its parent company.to get funds,DCGmay have to sell equity、风险投资、流动性资产,even sell the company's other flagship brands.

  FTXThe bankruptcy of like dominoes,引发了一系列的连锁反应,如今,This is setting fire to crypto brokerages Genesis 及其母公司 Digital Currency Group(DCG) 的身上.

  11月11日,也就是 FTX date of bankruptcy declaration,加密货币做市商和贷款公司 Genesis Trading 在推特上表示,Its derivatives business and FTX 有关联,但 Genesis Trading 再次强调,与 FTX 或 Alameda No ongoing loan relationship.其表示,“Genesis Derivatives business in the us FTX Locked in the trading account for about 1.75 亿美元的资金,But this will not affect our market-making activities.此外,我们在FTXworking capital and net position are not material to our business,FTXconditions have not prevented the full operation of our trading business.”

  随后,Genesis announced on the same day,将从其母公司 Digital Currency Group 处获得 1.4 亿美元的股权注入,Capital injection will be used for optimization Genesis 的资产负债表并巩固其在加密市场的地位.

  然而,it's over 5 天,又有消息传出,Genesis 或存在偿付能力问题.as if to prove that,Genesis Global Trading Its lending department focuses on serving institutional customers Genesis Global Capital 于 11 月 16 Day has suspended redemptions and the issuance of new loans.Also affected are crypto exchanges with which it has lending partnerships Gemini and jointly launched “Earn 计划”.

  尽管 Genesis Denies that business has been compromised FTX 事件的影响,但 Arkham Intelligence Data released today show,在过去三个月里,Genesis 从 FTX received the value 9.3256 亿美元的 FTT,while the same period from Alameda Research also received the value 1.411 亿美元的 FTT,总数高达 10.7 亿美元以上.此外,数据显现,Genesis A tradable asset at its peak was close to 50 亿美元,而如今,The company's tradable assets are worth only about 2.38 亿美元.

  事已至此,People are starting to predict,Genesis Will it follow FTX The next institution to fail after that.一时间,包括币安、火币、OKX、Tether、Coinbase、Circle Major encryption companies, including others, have come forward to express their views:公司不存在 Genesis 的风险敞口,no business relationship with.Grayscale, which belongs to the same company, also issued a statement immediately:“Given recent market events,The security of grayscale digital asset products held by investors will not be affected.Genesis Global Capital Not a counterparty or service provider of any Grayscale product.”

  但是,作为 DCG An important part of the layout,Genesis The crisis had a major impact on its parent company.

  报道称,Genesis 在 FTX 破产之后,Before suspending the redemption, the investor sought 10 亿美元的紧急贷款,The reason is that a liquidity crunch has occurred due to certain illiquid assets on its balance sheet,但并没有成功.

  同时,Genesis Had talks with Binance about potential investment,但 DCG require at least 20 亿美元,Binance believes that Genesis 的一些业务可能会在未来产生利益冲突,So the deal didn't happen.

  如今,知情人士称,This fundraising goal is also from 10 亿美元降至 5 亿美元.

  —1

  DCG“帝国”基业

  风险投资公司Cinneamhain Ventures的合伙人 Adam Cochran 于 11 月 20 Tweeted today outlining DCG “帝国”的基线,披露了 DCG 的资产构成,and assessed the potential 10 The market impact of the $100 million vulnerability.

  他认为,如果DCG继续挣扎,The impact on the entire industry could be catastrophic.

  The following is the original text compiled by ChainDD:

  假设 DCG 出了问题,他们有 10 亿美元的漏洞,and did not get help.what can they do?I decided to dismantle their assets,try my best to understand.

  2021 年,In the sale to SoftBank,DCG 的估值为 100 亿美元,而当年 GBTC 的费用约为 5 亿至 7.5 亿美元,资产管理规模为 380 亿美元.

  This gives us an idea of ​​what each component in the empire looks like by value.

  我们假设 DCG Received preferential terms,The annual fee is 5 亿美元,value per component 8 倍.这样一来,Reasonable valuations about gray 40 亿美元.假设 Genesis 也一样,then its value is approximately 30 亿美元.

  据我猜测,他们对 Luno The book value of the acquisition is at least 10 亿美元.

  I guess they investment accumulated of history 2 亿美元的现金投资,The book value at the time of investment may be 8 亿美元,because it was a bull market.

  What we're looking for is something like this.

  从外部来看,this is just an approximate number,But it can give us a general idea of ​​their venture capital portfolio.

  -Liquidity has declined 70% 以上

  -Big cuts in venture capital,and progress is slow;

  -they look messed up;

  -Advertising revenues in this segment have also fallen sharply

  因此,let's reevaluate:

  -Grayscale asset management scale(AUM)下降了,income is more like 2 亿美元/年,lower multiple,so probably worth 20 亿美元;

  -If you look at the changes in private equity,Luno will also drop about 50%.

  If we check that they hold every liquid currency(除 BTC/ETH)的最大持有者,Let's assume they are top ten holders,这大约是 5000 万美元以上,可能还有 5000 万美元的 ETH/BTC.

  while they hold at least 2.5 亿美元的 GBTC,So let's assume the fee has reached this figure.

  此前,Binance in the bull market with 4 Acquired data platform for $100 million CMC,Coindesk The traffic and added value may only be one-tenth of it.因此,unless there are rich people buying it for branding,Otherwise we can mark it down to 4000 万美元.

  而且说实话,我不知道 Foundry Are you still making money,so I set it to 0 美元.

  接下来,就是这 44 Overview of billion dollar valuations:

  Considering the way the market crashed,This algorithm still seems to be generous and optimistic,But it's no wonder they couldn't raise 10 亿美元.

  So let's assume,They want to follow the grayscale、Genesis和LunoThis sequence is rescued.

  but they may not,Because their book value is only 5 亿美元.

  由于 GBTC、ZEC、ETC、ZEN and all other assets with shrinking markets and thin liquidity positions,If they have acquired in these assets 75% book value above,will surprise me,Because they will have a lot of selling pressure,The market may not be able to bear it.

  their risky portfolio is so low,because many of their best investments had exited in the previous cycle——Current portfolio is a bit mediocre.as a VC,I wouldn't bid too much on secondary assets.

  因此,to raise 10 亿美元,they seem to need:

  -出售部分股权;

  -sell all venture capital;

  -sell all liquid assets;

  -出售Luno/Coindesk/Foundry(if they are worth anything).

  Hope they can sell a good price.

  否则,they need someone to Coindesk 和 Luno bid too high,Or hold a lot more than I thoughtBTC和ETH.或者另一种选择是,they try to raise 10 亿美元,But this is significantly more difficult to do.

  maybe they were lucky,someone paid a premium for it,or they successfully 灰度 或 Genesis part of which was sold to like Fidelity 这样的大公司.但是,They may have to drop everything to save this bird“goose that lays golden eggs”.

  我的猜测是:If a round of financing cannot be completed in the near future,That means most of these things will be sold.And had to consider splitting the gray scale out.

  We still don't know if they're in debt or if they'll close the financing,但我们知道,无论情况如何,The scale of impact will be enormous.

  —2

  Genesis Confusion with Grayscale

  今年早些时候,After the collapse of Three Arrows Capital,Genesis 已经得到了 DCG 的救助.但如今,DCG Maybe I can't protect myself,There is no spare for more Genesis 伸出援助之手.同时,人们也在担心,Will the crisis spill over to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust?.

  值得注意的是,截至 2022 年 10 月,Genesis Is no longer a gray COINS of the trust of the participants,But continue as liquidity providers of gray.

  然而,11 月 16 日,Grayscale announced,Its assets are now held by Coinbase 持有,而 Genesis “Not a counterparty or service provider of any Grayscale products”,进一步拉开了与 Genesis 的距离.

  然而,This statement is consistent with the previous 10 月 3 Japan's statement is completely contradictory,grayscale chief executive at the time Michael Sonnenshein 告诉CoinDesk,Genesis 是灰度“The only liquidity providers”,Diversification is not considered necessary.Sonnenshein进一步表示,“Genesis Grayscale Trust will still be responsible for buying cryptocurrencies.”

  Currently on Grayscale's official news channel,no further about removal Genesis 的消息.Gray scale it to“流动性提供者”The requirements are defined as ensuring“investment satisfied”的一种方式.It said in a statement:

  “与 Genesis Such liquidity provider cooperation,Allows us to enter various digital asset or protocol markets,To ensure timely completion of investment.”

  There are indeed instructions in the small print on the Grayscale official website,Its products are issued by Grayscale Securities,并且“在2022年10月3日之前,该产品由 Genesis Global Trading, Inc.分销.”

  然而,令人困惑的是,Grayscale is in 11 月 18 In a statement issued on Genesis no exposure.

  Given that less than two months ago,Genesis Recognized as a Liquidity Provider,任务是“Cryptocurrency to buy Grayscale Trust”,目前很难确定 Genesis 和 DCG exact exposure of.

  此外,正如 Cochran 所言,to get funds,DCG may have to sell equity、风险投资、流动性资产,or sell the company's other flagship brands.former goldman sachs traderPatrick Feeney认为,DCG and grayscale is at“困境”,lack of liquidity and face“jumbo loan problem”.

  Genesis Whether the financing can be completed in the end is still unknown.But as a veteran and core company in the encryption market,无论 DCG、灰度或 Genesis either side collapses,eventually faced insurmountable financial difficulties,will bring a new bear market.

责任编辑:张靖笛

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