作者:Jack Inabinet

来源:Bankless

不知道你是否注意到了,11Month has not been so kind to the crypto industry!

The outlook for this week also looks less rosy,because people are thinkingGenesisIs disaster imminent.

让我们来看看Barry Silbert的Digital Currency Group是怎么回事.

上周,GenesisFreezes withdrawals from its lending business.

crypto twitter start传播GenesisRumors of impending disaster.

Not only the only full-service prime brokerage firm in the crypto industryGenesisThe solvency of the,Bitcoin trust productGBTCSupport has also been a similar review.此前,Grayscale, the fiduciary for the product(Grayscale)表示,以“安全考虑”为由,Don't share their reserves audit certificate.

GenesisWhat does it have in common with grayscale?

这两家公司都是Digital Currency Group(DCG)的子公司.

据传,DCGin the last week toGenesis注入1.4After $100 million in new capital,Liquidity is running out.在Genesisof the lending sector lost lock inFTX账户上的1.75亿美元之后,it's necessary,And just after this incident,Genesislending platform freezes withdrawals.

All of this has crypto Twitter wondering:how bad it could get?

今天我们得到了答案:Genesis濒临破产……

截至撰写本文时,GenesisNo current plans to file for bankruptcy.看起来很乐观,但不幸的是,可能不是.

(11月23日消息,据知情人士称,Genesis Global Capitalinvestment bank hiredMoelis&CompanyExplore options, including bankruptcy,报告称,Have not made any final decisions,The company is still likely to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection.)

FTXThe collapse of Bitcoin and the ensuing crypto credit crunch created an industry-wide credit crunch,导致了Genesisbank run.Current relief packages includeextra injection5亿美元,Is the company's first request10亿美元的一半,Binance considered a potential funding source(然而,据知情人士透露,由于担心GenesisSome of the business may create conflicts of interest in the future,Binance decides not to invest.)

Genesis是什么?

让我们退后一步,仔细看看GenesisWhat is and the company's potential sources of financial risk.关于GenesisA more detailed description of the service provided,请参阅Ram Ahluwaliathis amazingtwitter thread(I summarize below).

GenesisPerforms many of the same functions as a traditional broker,At the same time, it tailors its products for institutional customers.像GenesisServices offered by such prime brokers include lending and over-the-counter trading services.

在传统金融市场上,高盛(Goldman Sachs)and other prime brokers will offset positions with counterparties.Suppose a client of Goldman Sachs wants to go long1亿美元的美国国债:If Goldman Sachs completes this order without hedging,they will be short1亿美元的美国国债.If yields start to fall,Goldman Sachs will be in the red,But if yields continue to rise,Goldman Sachs will profit from the position.

Goldman Sachs does not expose itself to price swings in underlying securities,Instead, simultaneously take a long position with JP Morgan,report to its customers(要价)than the price received from JPMorgan Chase(出价)略高的价格.

This allows traders to execute client orders,Without having to bear the risk direction,bid-ask spread.

As a pioneer in the cryptocurrency OTC and prime brokerage markets,GenesisNo access to a robust inter-dealer market like traditional financial institutions.Despite the lack of similar risk management solutions,但GenesisTrying to provide the same services as its traditional counterparts.

Genesis的风险来源

我们知道GenesisWithdrawal request no longer fulfilled.但这是为什么呢?

Genesisfacing liquidity problems——There may also be solvency issues.

流动性问题

Just like banks rely mainly on demand deposits as a source of funds,GenesisReliance on short-term funding sources,包括Circle的Yield项目和Gemini Earn.此外(很像银行),GenesisParticipated in maturity transformation of assets,This means they use these short-term deposits to make long-term loans.

Loans with a longer term,使GenesisAbility to obtain the difference between cost of funds and interest income,Provides the basis for a potentially profitable business model.然而,The risks posed by this strategy are,A bank-like entity does not have sufficient liquidity to meet an unexpectedly high volume of withdrawal requests.

in times of economic uncertainty,Lenders generally try to recover outstanding credit as much as possible,and grow your own cash/liquid asset reserve.像为GenesisThose sources of short-term deposits that provide funding,Allow users to withdraw funds on demand,One of the preferred places for lenders to find liquidity.

就在GenesisBefore freezing withdrawals,在FTXIndividuals and institutions with funds(包括Genesis)Sudden loss of what they thought was liquid capital.此外,FTXMismanagement of user funds reignites outrage over crypto lending practices,And increased the voice of the industry to re-examine the non-full mortgage and off-chain lending behavior.

FTXImplosion triggers liquidity demand for funds locked in trading platforms,And reduce the willingness of crypto ecosystem participants to lend money to centralized black boxes,减少了Genesisavailable sources of funding.

不幸的是,(much like a bank)GenesisBorrowers are granted loans with longer maturities,There is not enough on-demand liquidity to satisfyFTXUnusual number of withdrawal requests after crash.

solvency problem

GenesisThere may be counterparty exposure related to duration management activities and position hedging.

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of asset and liability values ​​to changes in interest rates.Longer durations mean prices are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations,Higher interest rates negatively impact valuations,Lower interest rates have a positive impact on valuations.Use shorter-term funding sources(short duration)and longer-term loans(Longer duration),would expose financial entities to maturity mismatch issues.

对Genesis来说,This means that for a certain change in interest rates,对GenesisThe impact on assets will be greater than the impact on their liabilities.

before managing the duration gap,GenesisThe solvency of the company is negatively correlated with changes in interest rates.Given the frozen state of crypto credit markets and the rise in risk-free rates driven by tight monetary policy,without hedging,There is no hedgeGenesiswill struggle with its solvency.

虽然GenesisPossibly a hedge against the risk of rising interest rates,But the insolvency of key counterparties to its duration management strategy will makeGenesisfacing directional risk,thereby increasing its own insolvency risk.

还记得Luna Foundation Guard用USTThose bitcoins you bought?

Genesisgained from this exchange10亿美元的UST!虽然Genesismay try to hedge against itsUST的敞口,However, the insolvency of the counterparty to this hedge will createUSTdirectional exposure.

如今,这10亿美元UST的市值仅为2300万美元!

Every Crypto Hedge Fund Thunderbolt GrowsGenesis对加密资产(including unsoldUST)Possibility of directional exposure to.

对Genesis而言,Counterparty risk is a much bigger threat than liquidity issues.Liquidity problems meanGenesisHave enough assets repaid in full for all users,只是现在还没有,Counterparty risk directly affectsGenesis的偿付能力.

Risk management strategy failure due to counterparty insolvency,将对Genesisnegatively affect the solvency of,and result in reduced payouts to its creditors!

suspicious connection

Genesis、3AC、GBTC和DCG.这4what do they have in common?

They are all involved in complex、相互交织的GBTC交易.

DCGSubsidiary Grayscale isGBTC的受托人.in exchange for its services,Grayscale receives an annual fee of all assets under the trust's management2%作为管理费.2022Submitted to the U.S. in Q3SECregulatory statement显示,Grayscale YTD fromGBTCearned fee income in excess of3.02亿美元,而2021年同期为4.33亿美元.

DCG的另一家子公司Genesis是3ACmain lender of.根据DataFinnovation在7月份to public beautySECand analysis of investor documents,GenesisFundamentally lending to Three Arrows Capital at its single counterparty limit.

分析推测,in exchange for collateral,3AC从Genesis借入BTC,将BTC归还给Genesis以创建GBTC(Genesisis the only one that can createGBTCAuthorized Participants of Shares),并将GBTC提供给Genesisto restart the cycle.

当GBTC的交易价格高于BTC时,3ACessentially making money for free,and use profits to increase theGBTCand other cryptoasset exposure.Assuming the premium remains constant,3ACTheoretically, this arbitrage process can be repeated forever.

事实证明,this trading pairDCGIt is also very profitable for,because it adds grayscaleBTCTrusted Assets Under Management,and increased fee income.

不幸的是,随着GBTCIncreased selling pressure and less demand for products,A premium becomes a discount.加上Luna的死亡螺旋(之前在3ACOccupy a sizable investment position in the portfolio),最终的结果是3AC破产.

Genesisunlikely to fully retract the pair3AC的未偿还贷款,Given the lack of mature counterparties in the crypto space,他们可能对3ACHave a counterparty risk that cannot be ignored.

Existing loan relationships and3AC(or other bankrupt crypto funds)The potential counterparty risk ofGenesisBringing continuous liquidity pressure,and remains a source of insolvency risk.

灰度FUD?

DCGnot only to deal withGenesisWithdrawal and solvency issues,But also toGBTCsupport for defense.这100%是DCGself-inflicted injury,DCGRefusing to publish wallet addresses holding Grayscale Trust assets or their full reserve audit certificates.

在FTXIn the wake of events and fears of exchanges falsifying reserve audit certificates,Its reserves audit evidence within the gray level of hesitation is a bad idea!

Third-party on-chain verificationGBTCAttempts at holdings traced the trust to approximately50%的BTC.

然而,Coinbase Custodyin defense of grayscale,证实GBTCand other grayscale products are still entirely made ofCoinbase CustodyControlled Asset Backing.

Nansen的Alex SvanevikThe relevant analysis found that,灰度的ETHProducts may consist entirely ofCoinbase Custody持有的储备支持,进一步证实了GBTCfully supported.

Given the deceitful nature of such conduct,并可能使Coinbaseface legal consequences,因此Coinbase Custodyunlikely to be falseGBTC的持有情况.但在FTXAfter the crash and the resulting scandalous allegations,Coinbasein representing grayscaleBTCIt is not entirely inconceivable to be fraudulent about possession.

DCG危机?

尽管人们对GenesisSolvency and Grayscale support(以及DCGoverall financial health of)仍存在疑问,But the bankruptcy of either of these two companies will have a catastrophic impact on the crypto industry.

Genesisbusiness scope compared toFTX大得多,And provide prime brokerage services,Authorized institutions to invest in cryptocurrencies.

Scene ending with Grayscale liquidating its trust fund,会导致BTC、ETHand other Grayscale assets under billion-dollar selling pressure,This event will hit the crypto market hard.然而,Taking into account the fee income generated by this product and the profitability of the group,This outcome is unlikely.

虽然目前尚不清楚Genesishow the event will end,But the near-term fate of the broader crypto industry,again depends on another black boxCeFientity's solvency.如果Genesis失败,will have huge consequences,Especially considering that the company is the nexus for institutional investment in cryptocurrencies.

系好安全带,前路坎坷!