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VR, born to "B"

2022-11-23 13:54:15fantasy space

来源:“产业家”(ID:chanyejiawang),作者:斗斗

图片来源:由无界版图 AI 工具生成

“This is one of the most difficult decisions in my eighteen years.”MetaThousands of people's congress (NPC) after job cuts,Zuckerberg in video to employees to apologize.值得注意的是,押注元宇宙的MetaNow market plummeted60%,Cause abroadVRIn the field of shock.

而在国内,Detonated last year againVR,Now also started to come down.

字节收购Pico、Facebook更名Meta、Quest销量迎消费级拐点、《Halflife:Alyx》引爆市场、Apple's future is expected to release phenomenal virtual reality devices......

2021年VRIndustry a recovery.

据IDC数据,2016-2021年,全球VRHead show equipment shipments from180万台增长至1095万台,CAGR高达43.49%,预计2022年全年VR头显出货量将达到1390万台,同比增长约27%.

Together with Mr Luo second startup,入局AR;Pico发布新产品,让VR这个领域在2022Increasing in heat.

But the heat of the subjects and not and growth in the equal sign.在2022Years to the end,2021年高速增长之后,Return to rational trend more obvious.截止11月15日,2022年共发生31笔融资事件,融资金额为29.55亿元人民币.

From the chart can clearly see the,Although the financing quantity and amount is still rising trend,但从增速来看,同比2021Is to special.

一个值得思考的问题,VRWhy always escape“狼来了”的魔咒?


一 中国式VR,Still depends on the content“续命”


自“元宇宙”概念爆火之后,VRCrossover is endless.互联网大厂、汽车厂商、手机厂商、Home appliance makers are off,Almost all industry blending a.But also causes the competition is in the field of“混乱”.

VRBusiness models can be broadly divided into two kinds of,一是硬件,Secondly, the content and services.

The main product,As a whole is divided into all-in-one PC makers and fission machine manufacturer,Development of all-in-one PC manufacturers.目前,PicoIs the main representative domestic manufacturers,The all-in-one PC market share tops,高达近60%.A strong Matthew effect,Make it hard for new firms to find competitive advantage.但事实上,Because the all-in-one PC manufacturers committed to independent equipment,So the control in the industrial chain of the market is the most important,So this kind of vendor selection and auto makers is unlikely to、手机厂商、TV makers such as intelligent terminal cooperation.

Its consumption field consumer sales all-in-one;在商业领域,Mainly for offlineVR体验馆,游戏厅等,为用户提供VR体验服务,The user is charge.

值得注意的是,This part of the all-in-one up market,Would be very good fission machine manufacturers to undertake.For example, vehicle-mounted fission machine、Mobile phone fission machine、TV computer fission machine and so on.在商业VR领域,Fission machine manufacturer is go product differentiation route,Use of open source development platform operation,提高兼容性,More available technology breakthrough.

The latter focuses on platform and software,通过优质内容/Activity of sponsorship andVRExperience in video market dominant,For example in the field of sportsIntel True VR、The live activityNextVR等.

在VR爆发的初期,These two kinds of mode split,A phenomenon is, however, investment and financing gradually focused on the VE 内容制作与分发.

这种变化发生在2019年,这一年 VR Hardware and software away, 2022 年,光线传媒、蓝色光标、完美世界、恒信东方、芒果超媒、The wind language building as the main representative of manufacturers such as,Began to VR 内容制作与分发 .

究其原因.Since the early yearsVR走红后,The game has been the most popular application scenario,So many vendors will beARAs a new generation of gaming devices.然而,A single content of ecological imagination is limited.一个事实是,把索尼、微软、Nintendo shipment in three games together,也不过4000万台左右,Far less than smartphones andPC.

然而,Another group of data is,HTC viveOnly sell ErSanShiWanTai,但Steam VR 上却有 6000 多款VR内容.Oculus quest 卖了1700万台,But its content is only400个左右.

This means that the currentVRContent marketing is no problem.说一千道一万,Not mature enough or because technology hardware can't spread.即VRThe lack of content displayed on,Mostly owing to lack of technology cannot be completely rendered content.

正如MetaVery not easy to send a much-anticipatedHorizon,The result was laughed at by all,The reason is the all-in-one support is not goodVR内容.

然而在国内,Many manufacturers choose to bypass the sensitive problem.Rush to do content,Will only make the domesticVRA vicious cycle of industries into technology board.

总体而言,这种变化背后,Is that manufacturers desperate to pushVRApplication of large-scale ground,However, in the industry's,VRThe breakthrough of landing,Not in the content.


二 VR落地的“Five mountain”


整体来看,VR想要大规模落地,Must implement the consumption side spread.然而这并不是一件易事,具体来看,There are three big pain points.

首先,VREquipment that immersion effect,Good immersive can let users forget are using head show and accessories,Makes the boundaries between real and unreal blur,Reach an immersive experience.

在二维空间,Because of the people's vision is limited,优秀的CGTechnology, combined with excellent art processing is enough to make people enjoy them.

But virtual reality is involved in,Even now the topVREquipment at the time of physical movement or there will be a delay,And the sensitivity of capture also not up to hundred of accurate,要使VRHost level to the film and television effect and action of every detail feedback on people look and feel,A big challenge for processor developers now or.

值得注意的是,VRContent to render the best,Resolution also need to improve,It also requires a lot of computing power.

其次,Application scenario for the scarce,目前来看,The game is the main application scenario,教育、Medical aspects while also on the ground,But the lower level of commercial.

The other is a high price,VRVendors need to control the cost,但VREquipment cost chip accounted for nearly half a,Screen costs accounted for20%,Cost can be optimized space is very limited.

In newly releasedpico4为例,The all-in-one cost side mainly chips、屏幕、Optical accounted for three big head,The chip of31%;屏幕占比23%;Optical accounted for12%.This means that in factpicoCost can be optimized space is not much.

但pico在字节vr内容生态下,To build a complete closed loop,In other link to profitability.But for most of theVRMakers do not have the ability to do this.因此,Price has been down.

对于大部分消费者而言,VRAlthough equipment can bring on the look and feel different feelings,But it is not just to,The price of will stop most people.

最后,Is the impact of mobility on the availability,通常情况下,Engineering purposesVRHead show with the computer相连,Will obviously influence the user freedom of action,The player's experience could be discounted.

总结来看,当前VRThe development of the industry facing the main bottleneck is that the imbalance of cost and the user experience.Vendors on the one hand, need to beVRThe terminal has reduced the cost of,On the other hand, need to strengthen technology research and development,Strengthen the virtual experience.

更重要的是,由于VR在CThe market has not yet been cultivating mature,Vendor need outside in addition to the consumption of more business,Looking for more application scenario.In order to realize their own blood.

云计算,May become the new solution.


三 云化,是VRThe new export?


数字时代,随着云计算、大数据、物联网等技术兴起,为VRIndustry has brought more possibilities.

具体来看,云VR使GPURendering function from the localPC/Host migration to the cloud,Powerful cloud server greatly improve the computing power and image processing ability,Multi-user Shared hardware resources the clouds,节省用户投资.从而使得终端的设计变得更加轻便与高性价比,降低了用户购买硬件设备的成本.

云VRUsing virtual machine technology,A hardware to time-sharing multiplexing multiple users,提高了设备利用率.The ubiquity of mobile broadband network provides a more natural business model,Let the user available anytime and anywhere.

Based on the cloud development tools and high quality network,Content developers will be able to better and faster for content storage and update,At the same time effectively prevent piracy;借助云VR的形式,大大减少了VR体验馆、VRExhibition hall operational operational scenarios such as.

VRCloud not only has brought the whole authors efficiency,也改变了VRInherent in the business model.

一个趋势是,Cloud will reposition of powerful hardware、数据存储和图像处理的需求.当VR云计算在市场上普及时,终端将是免费的,Easy access to and can be from many places and equipment.改变VRInherent in the business model.

彼时,你所需要的只是一个足够强大的5G来实现在线用户交互式虚拟现实体验.云解决方案将直接在云服务器上执行VR软件,只将必要的资源流给最终用户.这将使得虚拟现实头盔更薄更便宜.此外,内容的分辨率将在流媒体到最终用户之前进行优化,使VR体验更加定性和愉快.

换言之,未来,VRDefined by software.在这种模式下,Or will accelerateVR的大规模普及.VRComputing is the trend of the future,更是VR大规模普及的“杀器”.

值得注意的是,云VRThere is a vital premise——5G的全面普及.但目前来看,道阻且长.对于VR厂商而言,Today still need to focus on cashability stronger field.


四 张扬TO BBlue ocean in the market


A logistics company,Is the world's leading logistics company,全球共有12.5万名司机.It is the first to useVR技术的公司之一,2017年,The company has adoptedVRVirtual reality simulator for new driver safety driving training,Let the driver in the simulation of dangerous environment focus and remain calm.

另外,VRSimulator also allows the driver to meet unfamiliar situations know how to deal with.比如,Assume that a driver only in Florida car,But he signed a contract with long-distance freight team,Need across the United States arrived in California in the winter.通过VR训练,The driver can be risk-free to grasp the actual situation of the long-distance freight,Familiar with the feeling of driving trucks in winter.

In addition to the simulation of the driver x out,This is training employees inVRSimulation of supply chain logistics system in the rapid identification of conveyor belt moving package information,Check the label on the package is correct.通过VR培训员工,The company greatly reduce the errors in real scenarios logistics chain.

在商业领域,VRNot only has played an important value in logistics freight scene,In the enterprise training also played a great potential.

据头豹研究院发布的《2021中国VRAn overview of the industry》指出,2025年,中国VRThe content of the size of the market will reach832.7亿元,There in the future5年内,The fastest growth is the enterprise trainingVR内容,The growth of55%.

除此之外,零售、包装制造、汽车制造、基础设施、制药、酒店服务、航天等领域,均是VRPerform field.

一个事实是,以医疗、教育、地产、Manufacturing ofB端应用场景,At present is supportVR价值的“Strategic anchor”.

其实,在VR领域,CThe homogeneity phenomenon is relatively serious,面向BClient can be formed with the help of a professional barriers to competition,To win the greater development space.

IDC的报告显示,2020年Pico在中国国内VR一体机市场排名第一,2020年Q4市场份额高达57.8%.市场的认可,离不开Pico在教育、医疗、培训等BThe field created by the high-quality service case,This has become its to be reckoned with“护城河”.

HTCChina alvin wang graylin had said last year,“当下HTCThe main customer is inB2B行业,The industry is not so dependent on content,More is to rely on the professional development team to do custom content.”

长期来看,Virtual reality track the real champion,A certain application will not be satisfied with simple entertainment brand,But for all walks of life to bring personalized solutions,And constantly promote the economic and social efficiency and the experience of ascension enterprise.

VRIs still a good business,对于VR厂商而言,能否看到VRThe popularization of the technology on a large scale that day,On whether to recognize the present situation in the,What time is doing.After all, in the field of the bubble more,“脱虚向实”,活下去,Focus on technology and services,更为重要.

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