current position:Home>Rising indicators appear in the crypto market, is the bear market really over?

Rising indicators appear in the crypto market, is the bear market really over?

2022-08-05 10:49:37golden finance

比特币以太坊In JulyMOFCAfter the meeting is affected by the good news,Start out of the trend of the extreme oversold and bounce back.It is worth attention this rise is in the bear market rally,Or the beginning of a new sustainability.

COINS and digital asset markets for the fed to raise interest rates this week 75 A strong point of policy,本周BTC收盘上涨 5.7%,ETH 上涨 7.6%.The market also at the same timeFOMCMade a positive response,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,目前 2.25% 至 2.5% The federal funds rate is suitable,And the fed's main concern is tending to slow economic development in the direction.

在许多方面,Recent positive prices for COINS and etheric fang after nearly nine months of falling trend of long brought a long-awaited news.2022 In a bear market a lot of adverse effects on the field of digital assets.After the market continued risk aversion,Now a rebound after all is just a relief of the bear market,Or bull market started omen attracted a lot of attention.

在本文中,We will have a digital assets on the chain of activities as a benchmark to discuss this concept,We need to clarify whether the market is a new enter signals,Or this rally is just a flash in the pan.

第31Weeks the currency price

The currency sideways

一般来说,Chain network is a new demand into blocks by chain demand continues to rise as the support and the signal.So we can use and supply chain activities dynamically analyze the recent historical data.

Bullish trend behavior often comes from the chain and the increase of the users.Usually this kind of behavior in the chain of trading turnover increased from the chain profit——For example, the old participants will they held byTokenFlips,Which is the transfer of theTokenBy new players will buy again.Such frequent trading drove in the chain of the wholeTokenMarket is bullish trend.

Lack of bearish trend from the chain,This kind of behavior of less often occur in theTokenThe price plunge.持有TokenThe crowd would mainly long-term holders and firm——Because speculators sell theirToken.Bear markets often require a long time will slowly in the past.

Many COINS address within the downlink channel(红色)Remain firmly hold.另外我们需要注意的是,10月至11月的ATH的峰值(蓝色)比2021年4月的ATHThe peak is much lower,This suggests that there have been a lot of users away,Trading and chain of the demand is still weak.

In addition to the requirements during the slump in the chain show some local and temporary peak,The current new influx of the network demand is still very little.

提示:活跃地址 (14日简单移动均线) 突破9.5Wan will show increased activity in the chain of,The potential market power and demand recovery.

比特币:Amount of active trading accounts(7Day moving average)

The demand chain trading and block space to show similar results.Last year's market structure and the 2018-19 During the years are very similar(As shown in the blue part).

在 2021 年 5 月的TokenAfter price slump in demand and chain(红色),Trade sideways but only slightly lower,This suggests that the firm faith of traders and stable basis of participants still exist.

提示:交易率(14日简单移动均线)突破 3.0 Will show increased activity in the chain of,The potential market power and demand recovery.

比特币:每秒交易量(7Day moving average)

Because of the depressed demand of,Chain on the transaction costs in a bear market area(蓝色),Every day to pay the total cost of the transaction cost of only as 13.4 BTC.Similar to active address and transaction demand,A slump in trading fee(红色)在 2021 年 5 In visible,Because the network congestion situation drastically reduce,Costs began to form a bear market baseline.

The bull market usually maintain a higher rate□,Market demand and is usually the first sign of recovery.Although we haven't seen a marked increase in the costs,But we still need to pay close attention to the index,Because it will likely be a market recovery signal.

提示:交易费(14日简单移动均线)突破 35 BTC/Days will show increased activity in the chain of,The demand of the market began to recover.

比特币:交易费用(7Day moving average)

We can see the currency block of data(以字节为单位)To confirm our observations.

Network congestion and full block(红色)Blocks that would allow the currency to become more,因为MinerWill be filling blocks as closely as possible to achieve maximum fee income.

Low network congestion and part of the empty block(蓝色)Will lead to smaller pieces,因为MinerThere is not enough deals to fill all capacity.

Considering the maximum data in order to increase the currency block capacity,COINS have isolated witness technology upgrade.在 2021 年 6 月之前,Based on the isolation to witness the block adoption rate is lower than 55%,This means that the largest block size is smaller than now.Due to the recent isolation witness adoption are now more than 72%,Although effective block space capacity bigger,But the current degree of congestion and even lower than 2021 年 5 When the month congestion.

这表明,总体而言,The currency network is still HODLer 的主导.From the point of view of chain activities,到目前为止,There is no notable new demand.

比特币:The average block大小(14日移动均线)

然而,更积极的一面是,比特币闪电网络(LN)Public channel capacity continues to hit record highs.Although still in a bear market in,LN The total capacity of public now stands at 4,405 BTC,Growth than in the past two months 19%.Which measures the user through public node can be used to send the value of the liquid,And extend the network effect is also a good measure of.But the index does not consider the two have not yet opened its node routing between counterparties to public private channel.

比特币:闪电网络容量

Short bursts of the etheric fang

在过去的 12 个月中,The etheric lane network has experienced many of the same as the currency movements,For example, the falling network usage of congestion and deteriorating situation.Although the etheric lane in the past few weeks prices strong,But the etheric lane network congestion is, in fact, its lowest level since a period of time,To pay the requiredGasCosts in years of low.

自 2021 年 5 Month since selling,The etheric fang trade demand has been declining gradually,In recent weeks have short outbreak of activities.But if you can continue to go up the outbreak tendency,That could herald a rise in the etheric fang trends will continue.

提示:交易数量(14日简单移动均线)突破 125 Wan will show increased activity in the chain of,The potential market power and demand recovery.

以太坊:交易数量

与比特币相比,The etheric lane in memorypool(mempool)中的交易pool往往更大,And the block space filling capacity of the market to99%以上.因此,We passed the etheric fangGasFee to determine the network congestion situation.同样的,GasThe urgency of the fees can be used to measure the user seeking deal,Because of more pressing fair push users pay higherGas费用.

下图展示了:

  • 绿色:平均Gas Limit,即MinerIn a block can accommodate the largestGas(目前为15M,但在 EIP1559 Under the agreement can be extended to 30M).

  • 红色:The average blockGasConsumption is relative to theGasCosts in terms of onlineGasCost of actual usage.

  • 蓝色:GasThe median fee(以单位Gwei计算)During the period of the demand will increase,In demand lower period will reduce.

以太坊:Each block averageGas费用

以太坊Gas费用的7Day median prices recently fell to only17.5 Gwei.这是自2020年5月(即 DeFi Summer As well as the last round of bull market began before)The lowest since the network congestion andGas价格.

这表明,Although the etheric fang recent price action is better,But there is no new users join.因此总体而言,The etheric lane relatively active in low for many years.

提示:GasValue in the cost price(7日简单移动均线)突破30GweiWill show increased activity in the chain of,The potential market power and demand recovery.

以太坊:交易GasThe median fee(单位: Gwei,168Hours moving average)

As a result of the etheric fang low activity,在EIP1559协议下的 ETH Burning rate is now at the lowest level.Now destroyed ETH The total accounted for total circulation 11%.In the release history of etheric fang,In the past it has experienced only3Time deflation.

And this actually means andEIP1559After agreement online than,Relatively moreETH正在流通.

以太坊:Burning vs. 发行总量

Profits to absorb

In order to export in this paper, the conclusion that,We will through spending output profit margins(以下简称SOPR)Indicator to evaluate the currency and market structure of the etheric fang.SOPRMeasure of the market for the tradingTokenImplementation of average profit (> 1.0) 或损失 (< 1.0).一般来说:

  • 绿色:高值(> 1.0)The growth of the said profit,And demand enough to take on more.

  • 向上箭头:The characteristics of the bull market support isSOPR值为1.0作为支撑,Because the participants during the correction on the basis of the cost price to buyToken.

  • 红色:低值(< 1.0)The loss of the said profit,Participants average to sell at a price lower than the cost of its holdings ofToken.

  • 向下箭头:The characteristics of the bear market resistance in1.0的SOPRValue as resistance,Because the participants during the rebound will be based on the cost price to sellToken.

In the currency market,其SOPRValue is trying to since6Since the beginning of the second breakthrough1.0关卡.Market usually need attempts to go beyondSPQR的上涨速度.The ideal bullish scenario is breakthrough 1.0,After rising market will repeat the process of,At a higher site looking for support.

提示:比特币的SOPR(7日简单移动均线)突破 1.0 And keep in this level will show that profitability is recovering,The market may have signs of recovery.

比特币:SOPR(7日移动均线)

相较比特币,The etheric fang better luck,其SOPRValue successfully broke through the1.0,And find the first high point for support.然而,Just to discuss aboveSOPRAs a measure and is not fully determine its market,为谨慎起见,We will look at it inSOPRThe weaker period(<1.0)The shape of the Ethernet in the lane to the comprehensive judgment.This is very similar to the bearish periodSOPR值大于1.0Before fall short when high.

提示:SOPR (7日简单移动均线) 跌破1.0Illustrate profitability decline,And the potential market weakness.

以太坊:SOPR(7日移动均线)

结论

在今年7月FOMCUnder the stimulus of meeting,Even under extreme oversold cycle,This week the price of the COINS and etheric fang still have rebounded.

然而,透过TokenThe rising price of the surface to the entire market,We must pay attention to the chain trading lackluster demand still,And the subsequent rebound not produce optimism.In the rebound,We can observe the currency block not all full of transaction data,而以太坊的GasCosts in years of low,在EIP1559协议下,The etheric fang still historically low burning rate.

当然,Chain activities is one of the market index,尽管SOPR Profitability back early signs encouraging.We still need to watchTokenIf prices rise can continue,In order to measure whether this is simply a bear market ease,Or more exciting market structural shift.

文章来源:https://insights.glassnode.com

原文链接:https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-31-2022/

翻译:Akechi丨达瓴智库

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