Analysis of the value and success probability of Ethereum forked Token
2022-08-03 14:17:39【Golden finance】
原文标题：《ETHPoW vs ETH2》
在这篇文章中,We discussed the etheric lane merge new chain division,从而产生一个 ETH2 Token 和一个新的 ETHPoW Token 的可行性.
就 Token In terms of price and the use of the economic chain,几乎可以确认 ETHPoW The chain will be a few people who support.
尽管 ETHPoW Chain may be faced with many technical challenges and in the long-term feasibility problems,But its existence may in the short or medium term for traders and speculators provide exciting opportunities.
After several delays,The etheric lane seems to be will end up in 2022 年 9 Month began to merge.以太坊核心开发者 Tim Beiko 在2022 年 7 月 14 Developers conference call advice will be 2022 年 9 月 19 As a possible merger Monday, date.The first major part of merge,Is to stop work proved that（PoW）挖矿.The consensus of the etheric fang part select which block chain,And then transferred to the already existing equity that beacon chain.然而,2022 年 9 月 19 The date of the day is far from final,With combination of time parameters of the client has not yet been released,在此之前,Merge the specific time still exist a lot of uncertainty.
合并后,Need to run two Ethernet fang client,Layer, common client and executive level client,例如 Geth,Will verify and handle the etheric fang intelligent contracts and transactions.值得指出的是,即使在合并之后,The etheric fang pledge nor will they pledge to withdraw to the executive level,「第二次合并」可能还需要 6 到 12 个月的时间.
When discussing merger,Many people report said the etheric lane community support close PoW.在最近的一次会议上 Vitalik 提到,If someone don't like it,They can always use Ethereum Classic（即 ETC,2016DAO Wars的产物）.然而,正如人们所预料的那样,PoW Miners will surely not a supporter of closing down PoW.Why they should be so？They will completely be etheric fang system rejected.EIP-1559Compared with all of this is nothing,This time they earn income from the etheric lane may drop to zero.几个月来,Some miners worked behind the scenes have been issued against the merger of voice,并表达了「Who can stand up and do something」的愿望.最终在 2022 年 7 月 29 日,One of the largest participants in China mining ecosystem「宝二爷」（郭宏才）Says he may plan to continue in the etheric fang PoW Chain on the dig.
如果 PoW Chain still exist and continue to expand,There is speculation the dollar might be called ETHPoW.在我们看来,Whether the chain has no economic significance is an open question.有一种观点认为,Which chain can long exist.与 PoW 相比,PoS There may be some weakness（例如 Staking Derivatives as natural monopoly）,最终使 PoS Chain in some cases the less attractive than PoW 链.All compete with etheric fang platform for the intelligent contract（或许只有 ETC 除外）都走上了 PoS 的道路,因此一个 新 PoW The emergence of intelligent contract chain may be able to get a lot of appeal.除了 ETHPoW 之外,No other real candidates.
无论如何,在对 2016/17 比特币And etheric fang split in the era of nostalgic,ETHPoW May cause some market participants seem interested.
More than seven years ago,当以太坊的 PoS System is just a series of bizarre drawing board and broken when the idea of,Vitalik Already foresee the potential problems.And puts forward a solution for this,称为「Ice Age」.在这个系统中,PoW The difficulty of mining network with time exponentially increase,Finally can't effective extension chain.在最初的 Frontier 客户端之后,The etheric fang's first major network upgrade is called「Ice Age」,Including the first difficulty bomb.The bomb will be 2017 年「引爆」,当时Serenity Upgrades will transition to the network PoS.但最终 PoS The upgrade has been delayed,Therefore bombs were hard bifurcation is delayed.
其实,Difficulty bomb has become the past「哑弹」很多次了.例如,在 2017 年 10 月上旬,The etheric lane, on average, block time about 30 秒,After a difficult bomb system reset,The average block time back to normal 13 秒左右.Difficulty bomb in the history of the etheric fang has been reset 6 次,Six hard y.
A recent reset is in 2022 年 6 月提出的,Now the bomb is estimated to be2022 年 9 月中旬「引爆」,这是切换到 PoS 的完美时机,Just like before 2015 In the original plan.Although the bombs are in 9 月,According to the bomb before time to see,Impact on the average spacing block could take several months to become significant.estimated,The average block time reaching 30 Seconds may need 175 天,在此之后,Should be exponentially worse.
Another interesting factor is,这次向 PoS 的过渡「真的来了」.与 ETH 相比,ETHPoW May lower the price of,Also may be volatile.This may reduce the miners dug ETHPoW 的欲望,Therefore accurate assessment Ice Age The situation of The Times can be very challenging.
新的 ETHPoW Hard bifurcate client
随着 ice age 的到来,之前的 PoW Chain in perhaps only bifurcate again after surviving a few hundred days.如果 PoW The chain should exist for a long time,It requires hard bifurcate a new client to permanently remove ice age 的效果.这给 ETHPoW 带来了一些问题,也许这正是 ice age 的存在意义.It from a certain extent the negative ETHPoW 的合法性.ETHPoW Will not be able to claim to be the orthodox or conform to the original rules of the chain.It also needs a hard y.然而,Today may not have how many the etheric fang users really care about this,In the seven years ago seems to be more valued.
同时,任何 ETHPoW Communities need to look for developers with technical feat to write a new client.They also need to solve a schelling 点问题,Agree on a new client and new parameters,以移除 ice age And activate hard y.Then the community need to persuade trading platform and custodian to run and support this new client,This may be to persuade them to continue in the new ETH2 Infrastructure run next to the old Geth Nodes slightly harder.然而,在实践中,These problems can be easily overcome,并且 ETHPoW The size of the community could not particularly big,So it should not be a major problem.There may be some big miners worked behind the scenes for the entire operating funds.
Locked the pledge of ETH
目前,Beacon chain is about 1320 万枚 ETH 质押,If you include actual amount（Through the etheric fang pledge plus any more than 32 ETH Threshold value of the deposit）,则接近 1400 万.据我们了解,在 ETHPoW The beginning of the chain,If you don't happen hard y,The funds will be lost forever.相比之下,在 ETH2 链上,这些 ETH Can at some point in time taken back to the executive level.这对 ETHPoW Chain has a few consequences.首先,有人可能会认为,由于 ETHPoW 链上的 ETH Supply is less a part of,This may push up ETHPoW 的价格.或者,Because the user lost a lot of money,This could reduce the credibility of the chain and hurt ETHPoW.
If hard bifurcation of a new ETHPoW 客户端,为了解决 ice age 的问题,On how to deal with the pledge ETH On the issue of community will face a choice.This is a dilemma.一个可能的结果是,由于它是一个 PoW 币,The community can pledge Token Never lock.在 ETHPoW 世界中,The pledge is a wrong choice.At least before the merger to get around 800,000 ETH The accumulation of pledge income in ETHPoW Chain should be considered completely illegal.因此,If you are a verifier or have stETH,你可能不会在 ETHPoW Additional revenues in the chain of.
许多人推测,If there is a controversial etheric fang bifurcate,The decision will no longer belong to the etheric fang foundation or Vitalik.They think in this case the new kingmaker may be Stablecoin The depository.The custodian must choose a chain to support,And consider these Stablecoin The popularity and prevalence,以及它们与 Defi The degree of correlation,Their decision will determine the chain of winning.因此,也许是 Jeremy Allaire（Circle 的 CEO,USDC 发行人）Is the most powerful man in the etheric fang,而不是 Vitalik.
当然,Jeremy Chief executive of the company,He must respond to his customer,Don't do that could mean he doesn't have to act in the best interests of his shareholders,这可能是非法的,So he can really didn't have the power to reality.然而,If the official regulation for some reason the command Circle Support one or the other chain,那情况就不一样了.This is also the etheric fang present a potential weakness.
If the chain after merger y,Circle、Tether、Binance 和其他 Stablecoin The trustees will seem to support ETH2.因此,Even without the etheric fang foundation and the community of ETH2 的大力支持,The result of the division is clear,ETH2 将成为赢家,ETHPoW Will be a loser.在 ETHPoW 上,Many rely on the dollar Stablecoin 的 Defi Apps Will be in the form of a catastrophic collapse in economic.但是,Stablecoin The issuer of the position and some other meaning,我们将在本文后面讨论.
Many etheric fang extremists strongly support to PoS 转变,So you don't like ETHPoW.They may want to ETHPoW Chain rapidly disappearing.
And then a layer on top of this thought.The etheric fang biggest activists should actually be（Somewhat unusually）希望 ETHPoW Chain can survive,At least for a while,So that they can be ETHPoW Token In the market to sell and get more ETH（或美元）.这样他们就可以在 ETHPoW In the next few years before dying slowly,From their think is「愚蠢」的 ETHPoW Supporters there to make money.因此,Many may sell its as soon as possible ETHPoW Token,The price may be weak.
On top of this there is a layer of thought,第三层.In fact everyone should do（No matter whether there is the etheric fang）Is to buy as soon as possible after the occurrence of the merger ETHPoW Token.Will be explained below.
ETH 分叉 token 的价值
为了出售 ETHPoW 来获得 ETH,Need to wait in the merged centralized trading platform support ETHPoW.虽然像 FTX 和 Binance Such a centralized trading platforms could soon launch related products,But still need some time,At least a few hours or days to support ETHPoW 存款.And how well they are going to have to,因 ETHPoW All the work force and a block of time on potentially unstable,They need to protect themselves from the double flowers attack.
另一方面,In theory, no matter what happens,一旦合并发生,Users should be able to go up in the chain centralized trading platform to buy ETHPoW.无论您对 ETHPoW 的看法如何,You must think the Token 比 ETHPoW All the other ERC-20 Token 更好吗？
Let's correspond to some thinking on the etheric lane today Token：
ETHPoW 上的 USDC – 毫无价值,因为 Circle 将选择 ETH2,因此 Token 将不可赎回,正如上文所述.
ETHPoW 上的 USDT – 也毫无价值
在 ETHPoW 上的 Wrapped Bitcoin – 毫无价值,Because the trustee will choose ETH2,因此 Token Will not be able to exchange for COINS
ETHPoW 上的 BNB – 一文不值,因为 Binance 将选择 ETH2
ETHPoW 上的 Uniswap – ETHPoW 链上 Token The long-term viability of the suspect.Token 可能会比 ETHPoW Faster crash
ETHPoW 上的 stETH – Due to no mortgage on the chain,因此这些 Token 可能一文不值,如上文所述
ETHPoW 上的所有其他 ERC-20 Token——在 ETHPoW The value of the chain may have very limited
因此,Are traded on the centralized trading platform before,The best strategy may be actually buy as much as possible ETHPoW.Then in the centralized trading platform to sell ETHPoW.这就像 ETHPoW On the free call option.
With the past these potentially controversial block chain bifurcate,The etheric fang merging provides an exciting opportunity.一个可能的「无风险」 on the chainTrading ideas as follows：
1. 在合并之前,Will all of your dollars into your own etheric lane in the wallet USDC
2. 合并后,立即在 ETHPoW Chain sold on you USDC,在 UniSwap 或 Curve Link such as centralized trading platform for ETHPoW Token
3. Once the centralized trading platform open ETHPoW 存款,将所有 ETHPoW Sell for $
For the deal,You could almost risk-free profit.Zero risk is considered only certain types of risk（Such as price changes）.
当然,Actually perform the transaction is actually quite complex and risky,And there are a few problems need to manage：
Transactions should be carried out in a short period of time,Because there may be a to use the opportunity of competition.支持出售 ETHPoW The funds flow in the pool may soon dried up.
You need to manage their key,Instead of using the depository.如果有的话,Any third-party custodian is unlikely to be soon after the break up in ETHPoW 上支持 ERC-20 Token.
Basically used to interact with decentralized trading platform infrastructure can support,并且仅在 ETH2 上运行.因此,You may need to run their own etheric fang node and directly with the ETHPoW Trading platform smart contracts on the interact.对于一些交易者来说,This can be quite complex,But the difficulty is the place where possible profit opportunities.在 ETH1 Before the fork may need to practice.
You may need to make sure that your USDC 卖出/swap Orders not in ETH2 Chain again.May need to create a split intelligent contract.
Liquidity providers may be very quickly realize this potential risk before and after the merger and withdrawing liquidity.然而,Some of the liquidity providers may not do so,To create opportunities.
许多 DeFi Agreement depends on the price prediction,May not know this will be how to deal with ETHPoW 链.
在 DeFi There may be more advanced strategies to try,Including leveraged、Borrowing or provide liquidity,我们暂不讨论.
The etheric fang merger happens when any chain branch may be right 2016/17 Era of interesting regression.尽管 ETHPoW Facing many technical challenges,But as long as the chain to survive,There will be around its Token The enthusiasm of the narrative,Leading centralized trading platform may open its trading.Encryption space is still full of narrative and the noise.ETHPoW Will bring a lot of things worth excited,我们预测 ETH 兑 ETHPoW Trading will become popular after the splitting of transaction on,At least until the dawn of another interesting dynamic is so.Looking forward to the race began！
author[Golden finance],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
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