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Ethereum: The Status of Mergers, Merged MEVs and Miners

2022-08-03 03:28:11chinadefi

以太坊:Status of the merger,合并后的MEV和矿工

未标题-3

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提要

  • The merger clearly changed Ethereum's monetary policy,Ethereum issuance decreased by approx.90%.在6-12个月内,Validator's principal(32个ETH)And new issues will be lack of liquidity,并将被“卡”在信标链上.Deflationary monetary policy and stakingETHAn increase in demand could lead to circulationETHSupply shrinks significantly.
  • From the etheric lane community comments hinted at9Soft targets for month consolidation.A range of market indicators show,Markets expect the merger to happen at least by the end of the year.Binance Rate's Pricing Says,The merger is estimated to be market9happens before the end of the month.
  • 以太坊MEVwill change after the merge.Most validators will runMEV-boost——免费的开源软件,使获得MEVRewards become democratized.但是,due to several factors(MEV平滑、多区块MEV潜力、DoS缓解),Validator pools and centralized entities may continue to gain validator market share in the near term.Ethereum developers are working on developing solutions,to solve this problem at the protocol level.
  • 自以太坊成立以来,Miners have always been a key component of Ethereum.把他们“踢”Go out is very difficult to.The largest after the merger GPU Mineable Blockchain Ethereum Classic Unable to cope with the etheric fang hash to the flow of work force.Because of the lack of alternatives,Some miners have already expressed their supportETHPoW分叉.We expect the fork will likely generate a lot of headlines,但从长远来看,its value is negligible.

介绍

合并即将到来.The etheric will transition to the rights and interests of a certificate from the work,At the same time improve its security and sustainability.然而,About what the merge actually does,How it affects various stakeholders,and the question of when it will actually arrive.This report covers the current status of the merger,Key impacts before and after the merger,and a range of measures to gauge market sentiment.

The current state of the merger

Two test network in real timeRopsten和Sepolia已经成功合并.此外,There are ten largely successful shadow forks on the mainnet.These practical runs exposed multiple smallbug,这些bugMost have been repaired.Goerli Will be the last testnet to merge,预计将在 8 月 6 日至 12 日左右进行.

如果一切顺利,预计主网合并将在9月19day and week.But it's not a definite date.Tim BeikoTimeline proposed in Ethereum consensus layer call is a soft target,不是最终目标.此外,Estimating merger time is difficult.在测试网上,Merge activates faster than expected.尽管如此,The timeline presented below can serve as a good rough approximation.

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​ 资料来源:PoS Perpetrators of telephone #91

What Consolidation Can and Can't Do

Consolidation does not significantly increase transaction throughput and decreasegas费用.It just changes the consensus mechanism from proof of work(PoW)更改为权益证明(PoS).在其他条件相同的情况下,Since the block production rate will13秒提高到12秒,Fee will be slightly lower.

Combined the pledgeETHcannot be withdrawn.The Shanghai hard fork is expected to take place after the merger 6-12 个月内启动,The staked tokens can only be withdrawn on the beacon chain after the fork ETH and issue new ETH.然而,transaction tips andMEVThe fees will flow immediately after the merger.We will clarify how withdrawals work later in this report.

Merge does not support on-chain governance.一些PoSBlockchain has on-chain governance,Its rules and upgrades are governed using some form of on-chain voting(例如Cosmos和Polkadot).But after the merger of the etheric fang is not the case.Similar to Bitcoin or the current version of Ethereum,Protocol changes are discussed and decided off-chain through a social layer with broad stakers.

Merger does not mean stakers get free funds.在PoW下,The Ethereum protocol must provide sufficient incentives to compensate miners for operating expenses,and make them a tiny profit on top of that.一个普遍的观点是,by transitioning toPoS,Validators have little ongoing cost,Stakeholders can easily enjoy high yields.

But staking is not free.与其他ETHincome compared to,Validators are choosing to invest their funds in ETH and put it ETH There is an opportunity cost of capital when staking in the beacon chain.If staking is free,People will continue to acquire and hold more capital,Until such a balance.事实上,这种情况在5 - 6monthly closestETHLeveraged trading has already appeared.

The merger significantly changed Ethereum's monetary policy.The etheric fang is reward beacon miners on the chain(In each block2个ETH的速度)和验证者.合并后,To reward the miners will stop,这会导致ETHissuance will be reduced by approximately90%,其被称为“三重减半”.

Merger greatly reduces Ethereum's energy consumption and carbon emissions.在PoW模式下,Entities need to purchase energy-intensive mining equipment to secure the Ethereum network,This results in high power consumption and hardware waste.The etheric fang's current energy consumption and the energy consumption of Chile;Carbon footprint similar to Hong Kong.

合并后,Physical pledge collateral will ensure network security.In terms of access to more powerful mining equipment is no longer competitive,thus significantly reducing energy expenditure.Most forecasts suggest,Ethereum's energy consumption will decrease99.95%以上.

Expected annual energy consumption(TWh/yr)

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​ 来源:Ethereum.org, Digiconomist

重点-关键领域

“三重减半”

The merger is expected to significantly alter the flow of capital in and out of the Ethereum ecosystem.

在供应方面,Ethereum is currently incentivizing miners(PoW下)和验证者(PoS下).miners for each block2个ETHprice of producing new blocks,For this they will receive seigniorage,Rewards will also be distributed to the beacon chain verifier.合并后,Rewards to miners will stop,The issuance of Ethereum will decrease by about90%.This is why this merger is also colloquially known as“三重减半”——This is a nod to Bitcoin's halving cycle.

Ethereum can reduceETH的发行,因为与PoW相比,PoSis a more effective way of cybersecurity.在PoW下,Ethereum needs to issue enoughETHTo pay for the cost of the miners(Buy mining equipment and pay for electricity)and tiny profits.在PoS下,Ethereum only needs to pay the opportunity cost of funding.此外,PoWMiners for good behavior can only be incentivized through rewards,而 PoS Also allows Ethereum to curb misbehavior by slashing.

合并后,Deflation in Ethereum

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​ 来源:Ultrasound.money

由于诸多因素,Demand for Ethereum is also expected to increase after the merger.首先,Staking rewards for validators will increase immediately.Validators will receive PoW The miner's current transaction tip,可能会将 APR 提高约 2-4%.此外,Since they can reorder transactions,So start earning MEV(最大可提取价值).研究MEVR&D institutions with sudden behaviorFlashbots的研究人员表示,由于MEV(假设有 800 万个质押的 ETH),Validator yields may increase additionally60%.因此,If the merger happened today,Due to all the factors mentioned above,A validator can expect a total of approx.8-12%的年利率.

If the merger happened today,Total yield pledge

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​ 来源:@StakeETH, @eth2calculator, Etherscan, Beaconcha., Flashbots

注:MEVReward estimates are conservative,Because it is fromFlashbots的下限估计.

当然,This yields is not sustainable.因此,We expect to pledge after the merger ETH will increase significantly.If the pledge accounts for the totalETHratio and alternativeL1相当(Solana和Tezos: 75%, Cosmos: 64%, NEAR: 39%),Then the Ethereum staking yield will be compressed to the annual interest rate 2% 以下.

Sensitivity analysis of total pledge income after merger

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​ 来源:@StakeETH, @eth2calculator, Etherscan, Beaconcha, Flashbots

expected to affectETHOther factors include the supply and demand:

  • 成功从 PoW 过渡到 PoS 后,ETH reduces its risk.
  • Eliminate criticism of energy use,The network energy spending will fall99%.
  • Due to its staking returns,Ethereum will increasingly be seen as a financial tool,Similar to equity or perpetual bonds.
  • It was not until after the forking Shanghai hard will enable beacon chain withdrawals,Is expected in the merged 6-12 个月内启动.

上海硬分叉

Withdrawing money in the beacon chain,usually misunderstood.Merging will not enable staking on the beacon chain ETH extract and new ETH 发行.相反,It will be enabled in Shanghai upgrade,tentatively scheduled after the merger6-12个月.

然而,priority fee andMEV费用(May be more than half of the total staking reward)Can be extracted in the merged immediately.

Post-merger capital outflows?

After the forking Shanghai hard allows two separate withdrawals.Partial withdrawal first——Allows active validators to withdraw cumulative rewards,and reduce their stake balance to32个ETH.这些是很重要的,Because it allows validators to withdraw the revenue they generate without completely shutting down and reactivating validators.It also allows validators to maximize efficiency,Because when the validator's balance exceeds32个ETH时,Redundant tokens, inefficient.If some funds are not withdrawn,Earned returns become idle capital.

每个 epoch The maximum partial withdrawal amount is currently set to 256.每天包含225个epoch,因此每天有 57,600 validators can withdraw their rewards.目前,The average balance of all active validators is33.66个ETH.我们可以预计,When the upgrade in Shanghai,This number will climb to34个ETH左右,This means there will be partial withdrawals in the market:

(34-32) x (57600) = 115200 ETH / 天

(如果ETH = 1500美元,约为1.73亿美元)

这可能会持续7天(基于当前的 410k 验证者集)到14天(If the validator set increases to 800k).

The verifier can choose a full withdrawal.To ensure the security of the Ethereum network,每个epochFull withdrawals and withdrawals are limited,The current Settings for eachepoch大约6次.If all currently active validators want to withdraw,it takes more than a year.

我们预计,Most of the rewards from partial withdrawals will create new validators,rather than selling to the market,And the demand for new deposits will exceed comprehensive withdrawals may bring potential selling pressure.尽管如此,We still point out this dynamic,because it is based onPoSof blockchain networks operate differently,And can cause confusion.

结果

  • ETHIssued by around90%.
  • 在6个月到1年的时间里,Validator's principal(32个ETH)and issuance rewards will be illiquid,and got stuck on the beacon chain.
  • Through deflationary monetary policy and pledgedETH的需求,may continue to decrease in circulation ETH 供应.

构建区块

MEVIt has grown from a niche topic a few years ago to the focus of blockchain research today.MEVAffects all areas of blockchain.MEVThe full impact of this is beyond the scope of this report,So we will only briefly introduceMEVHow it affects validators after a merger.

最大可提取值(Maximum Extractable Value,简称MEV),Broadly defined as the total amount a miner or validator can increase its balance over a series of blocks given the available operations.These operations can include reordering transactions、censorship block,even try to reorganize the chain.一些常见的MEVForm including sandwich attack、Arbitrage and Liquidation.

MEVhistory and current state of

In the current state of Ethereum,Most users send their transactions to a public mempool via wallets.Searchers constantly monitor the memory pool,to find potential profit opportunities.在MEV的早期,Searchers pass high bidsgasprice to gain trading priority,To seize these opportunities.

随着MEV变得更具竞争力,leading to a prioritygas拍卖(PGA),This increases network load,进而导致gas价格波动,Problems such as inefficient use of block space.Other negative externalities are starting to emerge.Team starts building infrastructure globally,to provide faster access to various memory pools、wider access.Miners provide services that allow seekers to bypass public mempools,privately execute transactions.

Several solutions have emerged to mitigate these negative externalities.最突出的是Flashbots.

These solutions largelyMEV民主化.discover uniqueMEVOpportunity searchers can avoid revealing their tactics to other searchers,and get most of the profit.For a more competitive strategy(如套利),Miners earn through bids submitted by searchersMEV收入.

合并后的MEV

在合并之后,Validators will replace miners.But there is no built-in mechanism at the protocol level to help the validator catchMEV.如果不加以控制,This structure will make a professional company and larger entities by setting up multiple verifier and build the best blocks of strategies to better captureMEV.Other validators will not be able to compete effectively.

幸运的是,Flashbots 还创建了一个名为MEV-boostpost-merger alternative.MEV-boost Allow validators to auction their block space to the open market and maximize their staking rewards.

MEV供应链

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​ 来源:Flashbots

在这个框架下,Searchers will continue toMEVsearch for profit opportunities,and bid their bundles can be included.Builders pay aggregate all the bundles to build the highest best complete block.When it is the validator's turn to propose a block,他们会向 MEV-Boost Relay queries pay the highest payload and include it in their proposed block.

然而,MEVRewards are subject to change.例如,Periods of high volatility tend to lead to higherMEV费用.Validators who propose during these periods may receive higherMEV奖励.FlashbotsA study last year confirmed,考虑MEV因素后,Inequality among validators will increase.

无MEV(左)和有MEV(右)The inequality between the verifier

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​ 来源:Flashbots

注意,With the distance between the green line and red line MEV Extract and widen significantly.

因此,Ability to socialize by running thousands of validators/平滑MEVLarge institutions and verifier pool will benefit from it.This dynamic is related to today's work-from-homeGPUMiners join mining pools for similar reasons——Stability and predictability of income.多区块MEVpotential is a further source of strength.

Validator assignment for staking pools

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​ 来源:Beaconcha.in

until Ethereum willMEVSmooth build to the protocol layer(这是目前正在进行的工作)之前,Validator pools and centralized entities may continue to gain market share.

矿工、分叉等

Miners are an important part of the Ethereum ecosystem.They are in totalGPU上花费了大约150亿美元.合并后,All their equipment and infrastructure will be idle,and need to find alternative uses.in anticipation of the merger,GPUresale prices have halved since the beginning of the year.

因此,What miners did before and after the merger remains highly uncertain.Some arguably adversarial behavior has been observed.今年5月,在Ropsten Before the beacon chain goes live,A miner significantly increased the hash rate to reach TTD ,forcing developers toRopstenretest merge on.

In the words of the miners,这样做的理由是:“这是对ROPSTEN网络的压力测试,See what happens if the merger goes beyond plan.”

The miners Ropsten Hash rate suddenly soars

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​ 来源:bordel.wtf

在合并之前,Miners' reaction may be more drastic,This will seriously degrade the user experience on Ethereum.

例如,Miners can stealMEV.when searchers passFlashbotsWhen sending bundles to miners,Searchers trust miners will not steal/暴露/抢占先机.随着合并的临近,Miners can start doing this,They were arrested because the cost is reduced.

Miners could theoretically also start running clients,Reorganizing the Ethereum blockchain to retroactively capture MEV.These tools have been proposed in the past,But largely opposed by the community.Large mining pools have not adopted them,Mainly for its reputation and to avoid harming the Ethereum network.

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​ 资料来源:@ethermine_org

我们希望像EthermineThis way the largest mining pools will not behave maliciously.F2poolThe second largest mining pool in the world,long time ago with its sister companyStakefish进行了合并.EthermineThe beta also launched a pledge pool service.

尽管如此,Smaller miners may try to make as much revenue as possible before merging by malicious behavior.

矿工们将何去何从?

合并后,If these machines try to operate within the crypto ecosystem,The most likely candidate is Ethereum Classic,这是2016年DAOEthereum fork caused by hacker attack.就在本周,Eighth largest Ethereum mining poolAntpool承诺投资1000Thousands of dollars to develop the etheric lane classic ecosystem.

But Ethereum Classic’s daily fees are orders of magnitude smaller than Ethereum’s.此外,If miners use a lotGPU哈希率,especially if prices don't go up,then the profitability of mining these networks will inevitably decline.

GPUMineable Blockchain

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显然,其他GPURecoverable block chain cannot handle of idle after the mergerGPU.此外,Bitpro估计,GPUMiners want to stay profitable in the crypto ecosystem,那么大约95%的GPU需要被关闭.This is unlikely to happen immediately after the merge.

因此,It is possible for miners to try to keepPoW分叉.Some miners have gainedETHPoWFork support.If some exchanges support forks,while a small group of miners continue to use the fork,then the fork may live longer than expected.

即使发生这种情况,Almost all users and developers will stick to the canonicalPoS以太坊.ETHPoWForks have no meaningful philosophical or ideological backing.此外,Now the etheric fang and ecological system2016年(it happenedETH / ETC分叉)有很大不同.Real-world asset issuers,如Circle (USDC)和Tether (USDT),Will support only specification chains of COINS/赎回.Package assets(如wBTC)也将这样做.L2Heqiao will also only support assets bridged from the main chain.ETHPoWforkedDeFiHas become a kind of strange,Billions of assets will become useless overnight.

因此,We expect the fork will likely generate a lot of headlines,但从长远来看,its value is negligible.

定价?

流动性质押衍生品

Liquid Collateral Derivatives Can Be a Measure of Market Sentiment.Is the largest of the three homeLido (stETH)、币安(bETH)和Rocket Pool (rETH).

stETH和bETHToken base is being adjusted——Token balance andETH的比例为1:1,Scrip balance regularly updated to reflect the reward.因此,After the Shanghai hard fork,stETH和bETHshould converge to1个ETH的价格,because users will be able toETHarbitrage with their liquid collateral derivatives.

相比之下,rETH Designed as a value-added token.因此,rETH-ETHexchange rate will increase over time.然而,将rETH交易回ETHIt needs to depend on the liquidity of the protocol,It is limited until withdrawals are enabled.因此,rETHThe market price of the fluctuation in the past year.

Price Performance of Liquid Collateral Derivatives

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​ 资料来源:CoinGecko

在今年5月之前,由于质押ETH的需求很高,stETHtransactions are basically the same asETH持平.This further strengthened(不正确的)观点,即stETH与ETH“挂钩”,就像1 USDC 与 1 USD 挂钩一样,This gives the confidence of the market participants are leveraged its yield.在这种交易中,Participants will be theirsstETHDeposit money market agreement(最常见的是Aave)作为抵押来借入ETH,用借来的ETHpledge to getstETH,and loop the transaction again.

Several models have emerged that offer leverageETHpledged product

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从5Market turmoil events that began in the month forced large market players,尤其是Celsius和Three Arrows Capital,出售他们的stETH抵押品.stETH-ETH The lack of liquidity and crowded leveraged deals led to a lot of people try to go through a door.

Crowded trades through the same door

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​ 资料来源:沙丘(@LidoAnalytical)

市场定价

bETH The current trading price ETH 折价 2.2%,而其“灵活”的质押收益率为 2.4%.

Developers have pointed out that the Shanghai hard fork occurred after the merger6-12个月.Assuming these estimates of intermediate value,This means that the merger will be2022年9月30日左右发生.

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Taking into account liquidity factors and market technical factors,This approximation is not perfect,but can be used to measure market sentiment.The same operation can also be used forstETH,但我们使用bETHand Binance’s flexible yields to exclude counterparty risk,It is also easier to offset the opportunity cost of capital.

ETH / BTC

ETH/BTCRatios are also often used as a sentiment indicator for Ethereum,At the same time eliminating encryption currency prices may affect the whole broader macroeconomic fluctuations.自5月以来,Major Crypto Events——如Terra和三箭资本——make the situation worse,Because both assets were allegedly forcibly sold during this period.然而,自7月初以来,ETH/BTC已经上涨了20-30%,Stimulated further combine the narrative.

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​ 资料来源:币安,TradingView

Merger of beneficiaries

以ETHThe price performance of some publicly traded tokens benchmarked also provides another reading of market sentiment.

The beneficiaries of the merger include:

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自6月以来,The performance of the tokens are stronger than most of the above categoriesETH,只有几个例外.

Price Performance of Featured Tokens(以ETH为基准)

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Polymarket

PolymarketHas the largest combined prediction markets.despite incredibly low liquidity,Weakened its ability to predict,But it offers another, simpler way to gauge market sentiment toward a merger.

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目前,PolymarketParticipants believe,66%The probability that the merger will occur according to the proposed schedule,95%The probability to occur at the end of this year.

合并的风险

执行风险.Good communication between all stakeholders is the key to a successful merger.在合并之前,Validators on the consensus layer need to perform multiple actions,such as updating the correctTTD值,Keep nodes updated and in sync.User error or incorrect information can lead to node loss.Clients of the consensus layer may also have undiscoveredbug.If enough nodes fail,Ethereum may be temporarily halted.There are also execution risks for applications or exchanges running on Ethereum.

The Ethereum community has been actively working to mitigate these risks.例如,Community unites to improve customer diversity,将Prysmof validator shares from4月份的68%下降到今天的41%.这样一来,潜在bugthe consequences are greatly reduced.

Miner Risk.如上节所述,before and after the merger,Miner incentives will change.

验证者风险.A new set of cyber risks emerges after the merger.An attack is a potential denial of service(DoS)攻击.Proposers will be known in advance,This will incentivize some actors to be maliciousDOS验证者.This also acts as a kind of centralization,Facilitates treatment and mitigation DoS Risk verify pool of institutions.

complexity risk.Ethereum will effectively merge two separate networks,Expand the technical complexity.To join the beacon chain,个人需要2个客户端.要运行验证者,就需要3个.想要获得MEV奖励,就需要4个.风险在于,With the modularity and specialization of Ethereum,This trend will continue to the point of specialization,It is difficult for anyone to understand the whole picture.

Vitalik在最近的EthCCThis issue was also discussed in the speech,Calling on the community to start thinking about reducing the complexity of Ethereum.

VitalikThe ideal long-term goals(for complexity,而不是价格)

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总结

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Source:https://medium.com/amber-group/on-the-合并-44df3f966813

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