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Web 3.0 summit round table: grey dialogue economics Nobel Prize
2022-06-24 06:01:37【Article summary】
2022 year ,Web3.0 Become a global topic that can not be ignored , Supporters argue that Web3.0 It is a real technological revolution , Make the distribution of value more fair and reasonable , Will have a significant impact on the world economy through encryption technology , Opponents believe that whether from the technical level or from the level of economic sovereignty ,Web3.0 Reshaping the value distribution of the entire Internet and production relations is just an ideal Utopia , Whatever is certain is that this battle is about Web3.0 The collision will fill the whole 2022 year .
So from the world famous cryptocurrency Fund Grayscale Capital management partner 、 Nobel Laureate in economics who has always been skeptical or even opposed to digital currency 、 The chairman of the board of directors of the New York Mercantile Exchange, who did not agree with the government's regulatory policies, was waiting for Web3.0 Different perspectives and discussions , What kind of sparks and profound thinking will be generated , It's worth looking forward to .
2022 year 2 month 20 Japan ,Shadow Killers union Silicon Valley Crypto Club（ Silicon Valley encryption club ） and Duke MBA Blockchain Club（ Duke University MBA Blockchain Club ） The theme of the joint event is 《Web3.0 Summit round table ： Grey dialogue economics Nobel Prize 》 Live online activities .
The event invited 2007 Nobel Laureate in economics Eric Maskin professor 、 Chairman of the board of directors of the New York Mercantile Exchange William Purpura、 Gray capital management partner Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary as well as IOVC partner Shuo Chen Participate in the dialogue together . The following is the live content ：
Q1: Many people think that , In today's use of the company's wealth distribution , So that wealth is concentrated in only a few In people's hands . And with the web3 The rise of , Many people think that this decentralized distribution method can make more More people enjoy the wealth created . What do you think of this view ？
Eric: I am totally opposed to the idea that digital currency can make wealth more fair . although Many people believe that digital currency can make the distribution of wealth more balanced , But in my opinion , The fact is that All the opposite . Because today , Even the most mature digital currency category , Still have huge volatility . Mature professional investors , Like this huge fluctuation . And more ordinary investors are more likely to be This huge fluctuation hurts , They don't know when to buy , When to sell . For this has great Volatile assets , Time is everything . Compared with mature professional investors , Ordinary junior investors are In front of assets with great volatility , It is easy to become poorer .
We all know , There are thousands every day Tens of thousands of projects have become worthless . For these projects , They are more like Ponzi schemes . If you enter Early , It is easy to gain huge profits , If you get in late , It is ” Beat the drum to spread the flowers “ The last one of them Ring , Professional investors tend to enter early , Ordinary investors are the last to enter the market .
However , My suspicions about digital money do not just stem from investment ⻆ degree .
At present, there is a voice that , It can make Some digital currencies issued by so-called decentralized organizations replace those issued by the government , Like the dollar , euro . I think this is a very bad thing , Because you need to realize , A reality that cannot be ignored yes , The monetary policy of the government often plays a role in regulating the macroeconomic cycle . When the economy is in the doldrums , The government will stimulate economic development through monetary policy ; When the economy overheats , The government will tighten up Money supply to help cool the economy . Over the past hundred years , Because of the existence of monetary policy , economic cycle Become more gentle and stable . If the digital currency issued by these so-called decentralized organizations replaces Legal tender issued by the government , Our business cycle will become like 19 Lose stability in the 21st century .
another Some people think , People no longer need to go to the bank to save money , Or no bank transfer is required , Thus we Even banks don't need . But what I want to say is , Banks have always played an important role in the economic system : Entrepreneurs borrow money through banks . Although today entrepreneurs can raise money in other ways , Such as crowdfunding . But the bank has organizational experience that other organizations do not have . Banks can more accurately Find out which businesses can continuously generate profits , Crowdfunding can't do this , Because crowdfunding Organizations are often unprofessional , They are easily misled .
therefore , I firmly believe that banks should not This should be replaced by . As for transfer , I agree that today people can transfer and receive money through digital currency paragraph . But even this advantage , It is also likely to disappear . When the government started issuing digital currency , Under the government credit endorsement , This remaining advantage will soon disappear .
There are many reasons why I do not support digital currency , For example, environmental problems caused by high energy consumption 、 The legality of the transaction, etc . But I think the challenge of digital money to monetary policy and banking system , Is the most important reason that makes me a skeptic of digital currency
Ray: We are the largest digital money fund in the world , We don't just have institutional investors , There are thousands Million individual investors .⻢ Professor Skinner is right , The volatility of digital assets is very large . However , From ash Degree fund ⻆ Let's see , Any new type of asset , Are highly volatile , So the teaching of the market Education is particularly important . Through the education market , To fill the gap in investors' cognition , Make investors more Better understand and enhance the understanding of this new asset . Investors need to look at time , Of the amount invested dimension , And the ⻆ degree , To understand the assets they invest in . today , There are still many digital goods Currency investment is pure speculation , But I am full of confidence in the future . Grayscale Fund believes that in the future One day , Yes 25-30 Billion bank users will be transformed into digital currency users , And from Profit from a completely decentralized network . Digital money allows them to... At any time , To anyone in the world Place remittance . therefore , We have full confidence in the future of the financial network based on digital currency Full confidence .
William: It is an inevitable trend that regulation will eventually enter the field of digital currency . One thing we all see yes , Very junior investors are investing in assets they don't know at all , This is what they should not be involved in And the field . therefore , Regulation is necessary in this field .
Eric: I admit, just like Ray As I said before , People can transfer money easily and cheaply Often meaningful things , However, the achievement of this goal does not necessarily need to be issued by decentralized organizations Digital currency . The digital currency issued by the government can achieve the same purpose . I prefer the government to issue For the reason of digital currency , As I just said , The importance of monetary policy to the economy . It makes me worry The worry is , Today, more and more people think that the government is a troublemaker , Not the solution of the problem person . We think ⺠ The elected government has the responsibility and obligation to solve these social problems , And we should give them this right force , Instead of trying to create a new form of decentralization . A decentralized form of organization , It can solve part of the problem , But for some key issues , such as , Climate or income inequality , There is nothing more appropriate than a government solution .
William: Contrary to the professor's point of view , I think the government is a troublemaker , Especially from the perspective of monetary policy ⻆ In terms of degree . For example, the United States today , There are more than 30 Trillions of dollars in treasury bonds . Let's look at our superelevation today The inflation rate of , These things happen under the guidance of the government . Let's face it Be realistic , Environmental protection and economic development are in conflict in some cases . such as , In the past 100 years , Oil creates more wealth than any other asset . Today, , As a result of the environmental protection policy Oil production has been reduced , The American economy has paid a heavy price . We spend more than any other country Money to buy oil . No matter who the government is , I think excessive regulation will bring about a series of problems . Many times Hou , The government thinks they are doing the right thing , However, the government's intervention was contrary to the past . in my opinion Come on , Instead of letting the government intervene , Let people ⺠ Make your own decisions and solve your own problems . On monetary policy for , Look at our national debt today .
Q2: Grayscale hold 6 Tens of millions of dollars MANA Digital currency , This is the goods under the concept of a meta universe The coin , How do you see this ?
Ray: In the existing games of the market , The creator and owner of the assets in the game are both game companies . and stay MANA In this kind of Chain Project , Gamers can create and own assets in the game , Thus in Get a piece of the game . This is a very critical point . Grayscale fund through the establishment of MANA trust , To provide financial instruments , So that ordinary investors can also get decentral land The development of this project Financial return . from ⻓ Look forward to , We think , The opportunities in the field of the metauniverse are enormous . We see that every year people spend more time and money in the virtual world ⻓. in fact , There is an organization indicating that 2025 , The virtual world will create more than 4 Hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue . We think this new technology It can change all aspects of our work life and social life . The future meta universe is based on decentralization , This form of organization will really provide people with financial autonomy and social autonomy .
Eric: I still have to stand back to the skeptics ⻆ To look at this problem . in my opinion , We are in the real world There have been enough troubles in , People should not be distracted by the creation of virtual worlds . I suggest that government organizations and public ⺠ Spend more time solving problems in the real world , Such as environmental problems and income inequality , Instead of spending more time solving problems in the virtual world .
Q3: Web3 How does this new distribution approach work under current regulatory conditions ?
William: In my opinion, this is the area where the government can do something right , Proper supervision is necessary To the . As long as the regulation is appropriate and reasonable , The government should play a very important role in guiding these emerging areas use .
Ray: I agree with . In today's market , Within the current regulatory framework , There are already some web3 attribute The emergence of financial products . Issued by grayscale fund MANA Trust is one of them .MANA trust Itself is to SEC Reported , ad locum , Regulators have played a very positive role , Their savings After ensuring the authenticity and integrity of the disclosed information , So as to protect the interests of public investors .
Eric: I am not a supporter of this financial product . And the potato market 、 Small ⻨ Different markets , In the financial market In the field , Any minor problem may become a financial bomb .2008 The financial crisis of That's confirmed . The problem of loan repayment in the real estate market , Under the constant amplification of financial leverage , destroy The whole financial market . therefore , For the government , To maintain control of the financial market , Financial leverage Put on the lid , bring 08 It will not happen again .
Q4: What are the biggest opportunities and challenges you see in digital currency ?
William: The greatest opportunity is , We can't deny it , The economic growth brought about by this new technology ⻓ potential . The biggest challenge comes from , Whether non professional investors have enough knowledge to participate in this market . such as Talk about myself , I am using stable currency for global remittance at the same time , Yes The currency This new type of asset is right and wrong Always cautious . And for ordinary investors , You must have a good understanding of the assets you are buying . take 2015 For China's stock market in , The whole market shows a unilateral upward trend , It seems that everyone is making money . And we all know that , Unilateral markets are unsustainable .2008 Dubai real estate market around So it is with , The annual return on real estate transactions can reach 40%. So the foam came into being . 2015 year 3 China's stock market in October , Every day is born 400 Million newly opened stock trading accounts , and These investors have never traded stocks before , Even two-thirds of the people do not have a high school education , Six to seven percent of people are even illiterate . However , The peak of the rise of China's stock market appears in 2015 year , At that time, the market was full of irrational investors , Finally, China's regulatory department ⻔ intervention , Use administration The order forced a cooling down of the stock market , To save most people from losing their money . For bitcoin this high For volatile assets , Different ⻆ The view of color is different : Traders prefer high volatility The assets of the , Because it is easier to profit from it , And investors need to look at volatility more rationally , So as to avoid Loss free .
Ray: obviously , I am an investor , Not a trader . I will use more ⻓ Look at digital goods from a prospective perspective The coin , Embrace its height ⻛ Risk . And what really gets me involved is , Take advantage of this new technology , Build a pre An unprecedented opportunity for the financial system . This new financial system has the potential to serve more people , In especial People who are not served in the traditional financial market . In today's state led financial system and In the world of monetary policy , Such an opportunity is particularly rare and exciting . I think the real ⻛ risk lie in , Investors don't spend enough time raising awareness , Learn about this field , Because here In three emerging areas , There are a lot of “ The bad guys ”( speculator ) In this field , It will mislead , Let investors lose money . The panic caused by such investment losses , It will prevent the innovation of Technology New development . If technological innovation is slowed down by fear of new things , That is the greatest regret .
Eric: The innovation I want to see is that one day we can see the emergence of digital dollars and digital euros issued by the government .
William: As you said , The government does have the opportunity to make a difference in this field . Two hours ago , My partner , It was also a former White House staff , Writing a recommendation letter for a candidate , And the Candidates are applying for digital currency related positions in the government . In my submission , It is impossible for the government to issue digital currency Avoided , And at this point , China has already taken the lead in other countries .
Q5: Technology is just a basic tool , Not all . It's like DAO Organize this form , people We use blockchain technology , To create an autonomous organization . We can see what happens with this technology Innovative forms , Including corporate governance innovation using this technology . We saw some very interesting Try , For example, in traditional financial markets , Investors will gain by participating in a large number of stocks at a specific time The right to vote and make decisions on specific corporate matters , This is also the case DAO The organization began to emerge present . some time , We will see more and more similar things happen . In this new DAO Under the organizational form , What do you think of insider trading ?
Shuo: Speculation due to insider trading leaks , It has never been absent from the traditional financial market too . Even today , We still see a lot of speculative transactions stimulated by rumors , such as Game Stop. and DAO The organization has its own characteristics in this respect , For example, all the organizational proposals And organizational decisions are open and transparent . Within the organization , The voting participants according to their real needs , Make these issues public 、 Autonomous voting . Such issues involve all aspects of the organization , From one individual Bug Repair of , Changes to the organizational governance framework , Even the upgrading of organizational economic model . vote Behavior is transparent , Everyone can see how many people voted on each topic , Each participation All the voting results can be found on the Internet , Even the voting mechanism is open and transparent . the With , I Believe , More transparent governance mechanism driven by blockchain Technology , Is the opportunity to improve the whole Organizational efficiency . In my submission , The improvement of corporate governance transparency is beneficial to retail investors , After all, not every Everyone has the ability and time to read the company's quarterly financial statements .
Eric: The real contribution of technology is not to enhance the transparency of the market , But to protect the privacy of the market , Thus, it is suggested that High market efficiency , Because not all information needs to be open and transparent . For example, in the auction scene Next , A company or organization that participates in an auction , Internal information must be disclosed as required , And this disclosure It is against the interests of the company . The birth of blockchain technology , So that these companies or organizations participating in the auction , Be able to participate in the auction while protecting their own company information . therefore , My idea is just the opposite , The real value of this technology is in protecting privacy , Instead of increasing market transparency .
Shuo: What we all agree on is , The world will develop in an increasingly efficient way , Whether this One kind of efficiency is to bring more privacy and more transparency , We go to the market and give more time to Give us the answer .
Off court questions ：
Duke Q: With the rise of the meta universe , What private enterprises can do to better participate in ?
Answer from Ray: Private enterprises should do everything they can to participate in the meta universe In the tide , just as Facebook It's like that , Change the brand name . Because in the future , these Customers of private enterprises , All in the metauniverse .
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