according to Adamant Capital founder Tuur Demeester That's what I'm saying , The currency （BTC） The potential decoupling from the Nasdaq composite index may occur in 24 It will be... In six months BTC Price pushed up to 100,000 dollar .
Bitcoin outperformed technology stocks
Demeester Describes the growing market valuation of bitcoin relative to the U.S. stock market index dominated by technology stocks , It emphasizes the strength of bitcoin for a period of time The ability to break through later .
“ It may be in the future 24 Do this again within months ,” He wrote , The following chart is cited .
according to BraveNewCoin Bitcoin liquidity index (BLX) Tracked data ,BTC More than ten years after its birth , Its price has changed from 0.06 The dollar rose to as high as 69,000 dollar .
This is equivalent to the bitcoin price from 2010 It has increased by about... Since 6450 ten thousandfold . by comparison , The return rate of NASDAQ in the same period is close to 650%—— from 2020 year 6 month 22 Japanese 20.99 spot , To 2022 year 2 month 18 Japanese 171.54 spot . result , The market value of bitcoin is from that of NASDAQ 286.8 Billion dollars to 7550 Billion dollars .
Will bitcoin be decoupled from technology stocks again ？
so far , The history of bitcoin has witnessed its strong correlation with U.S. technology stocks in several periods . for example , According to Bloomberg , Earlier this month , The efficiency of cryptocurrency and NASDAQ has reached 0.73, Almost close 2020 Five year high in 0.74.
There was a sell-off in the broader risk market ,BTC The price is from a record 69,000 The dollar fell last month 33,000 Below US dollar . meanwhile , The federal reserve (Federal Reserve) Decided to raise the benchmark interest rate sharply in response to rising consumer prices , The interest rate is 2022 year 1 It will reach 40 The highest point in years .
VanEck Associates Director of digital asset research Matthew Sigel Bitcoin is expected to fall along with NASDAQ and other US stock indexes , Although the situation is more serious . However , He pointed out that , The volatility of bitcoin has been in a downward trend in recent years . by comparison , NASDAQ 100 The fluctuation range of the standard deviation of the index is higher than its five-year average .
The outlook shows , Bitcoin has gradually improved , Become a reliable hedge against rising inflation . therefore , Its relevance to risky assets such as technology stocks may decline .
Data analysis company CoinShares Director of research James Butterfill To Bloomberg ：“ At present it is relevant ,” And added that cryptocurrency “ Very sensitive to concerns about rising interest rates ”. He pointed out that ：
“ But if there are policy mistakes , For example, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates too much , Or not big enough , Then there is the problem of inflation , What will happen ? This may actually be more supportive of the bitcoin , The supporting effect on stocks will be weakened .”
Besides , Hedge funds focused on cryptocurrencies Pantera Capital CEO of Joey Krug It is expected that decoupling will take place in “ In the next few weeks ” happen , And point out that “ Cryptocurrencies will start trading on their own ”.
BTC Of The price target is 10 Thousands of dollars
Demeester Pointed out that , Although the pressure of the correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq makes it difficult , But it still has the ability to 5 Million dollars , This is what it might do to 10 One of the main reasons for the million dollar dash .
This price target is in line with Goldman's 2022 Expectations at the beginning of the year . The global management of value 1.2 The trillion dollar investment giant pointed out that , If bitcoin occupies part of the market share of the traditional safe haven asset gold , Its value may reach 10 Thousands of dollars . Now , The market value of bitcoin is only slightly lower than that of gold 6%.