current position:Home>Hashed research: we need to rethink the future airdrop mode

Hashed research: we need to rethink the future airdrop mode

2022-06-23 22:48:30Chain catcher

Encryption projects often use airdrops to distribute free tokens to community members , But what's the effect ?

  Airdrop helps the project distribute tokens to community users , And may be part of a marketing plan , To improve users' understanding of their core products or new products .

Users usually get airdrops when the agreement is about to go online or during the retrospective period after using the agreement , No money is required but certain criteria must be met to qualify for .

But how much impact do these airdrops have on the original tokens of the project ?

This study focuses on the 2020 year 9 Of the month Uniswap ($UNI) To 2022 year 4 Of the month Evmos ($EVMOS) Of Within a year and a half 31 Price performance of different token airdrops .

This is not an exhaustive list of all airdrop events within this time frame , Instead, try to cover as many airdrop events as possible that meet these parameters :

  • The original token and Genesis airdrop are launched at the same time ( for example TGE There was no air drop after )

  • The project is based on Gitbook / Roadmap for public documentation

  • The project has announced its intention to reward existing users by airdrop / Further promote their products / Decentralized token supply ownership

  • Airdrop tokens have been around long enough to provide meaningful data points

First , Let's look at the distribution of the percentage of supply allocated to airdrop tokens for each item :

image

On average, , The project party will 7.5% The token supply of is allocated to airdrop —— Use median calculation to prevent outliers from interfering .

The allocation of airdrops by most project parties is lower than 10% , Second, there is 26% The allocated amount of the project party is 10-20%,23% The allocation of the project party is greater than 20%.

image

by comparison , The project side tends to allocate about to the investors 10% Total token supply of , Assign approximately to team members 15%, So for projects that decide to air drop , Set aside 7.5% The supply of tokens is a large proportion .

So why allocate such a large percentage to airdrops ?

Token airdrop has multiple benefits for the project :

  • If the project is about to go online , Founders may want to use airdrop activities to expand marketing and visibility . Successful airdrop will be an effective way to get more users' attention in a short time , At the same time, it gives users time to study the rationality of the project .( for example APE、EVMOS、LOOKS)

  • If the project has been running for some time , Airdrop is a good way to reward early adopters and community members , At the same time, the token mechanism will be incorporated into the daily governance process .( for example COW、DYDX、ORCA)

Price performance after token airdrop (100 God )

Although the airdrop strategy may realize the intention of the above project parties in the short term ( For example, increase DAU、 increase TVL、 New wallet interaction ), However, the long-term incentive effect of the original token may not be consistent .

Let's take a look at the price performance of each token after Genesis airdrop :

image

It looks like a crowded chart , The token prices in the figure have been normalized to 1.0(y Axis ), The number of days after the air drop of each project is scaled ( x Axis ).

If the price of the airdrop token is in the 1 Heaven is 1.0. Chart display ,100 Days later , the height is 74% The transaction price of the original token of the project is lower than that of 1 Sky price .

Only 7 The transaction price of items is higher than their issuing price ,$ORCA(Solana Upper DEX) With 4.8 Times the issue price and $RAIDER( A utility based NFT RPG game ) With 2.4 Times the issuing price, which is excellent .

Other items ——$GTC、$1INCH、$JUNO、$OSMO and $UNI—— Trading at a price lower than the issue price 2 times .

The figure below further details how... Over time :(i) The average price performance of airdropped tokens deteriorated , as well as (ii) In the sample transaction, more and more air dropped tokens are priced lower than their first day price .

image

  • The first 5 God , The average price of airdropped tokens is 0.99( With the first 1 The deviation of days is -1%),55% The transaction price of is lower than the issue price .

  • The first 50 God , The average price of airdropped tokens is 0.87( With the first 1 The deviation of days is -13%),70% The transaction price of is lower than the issue price .

  • The first 100 God , The average price of airdropped tokens is 0.64( With the first 1 The deviation of days is -36%),74% The transaction price of is lower than the issue price .

Price performance after token airdrop (200 God )

In a longer time frame ( After airdrop 200 God ), The result is no different .

The figure below shows the downward trend of the air drop token price over a longer period of time , The average price is from 5 Days of 0.99 Down to 0.44.

image

Most projects (72%) The average price of continues to be lower than its published price , Although some noteworthy projects have performed well .

$UNI Issued in 2020 year 9 month , and 2021 Second quarter ( The first 200 God ) comparison , In terms of daily trading volume , It has become the most mainstream in all public chains DEX.

  • Token holders can participate in governance initiatives , This is a favorable factor for the price after the token airdrop

  • Although not shown in the chart , But at the moment, $UNI The transaction price of is still higher than its original airdrop price 1.5 times

$RAIDER stay 2021 year 8 In June, an unconventional air drop method was adopted , The team passed the successful NFT Sales start , And in a few weeks later in Polygon The first version of P2E RPG game .

  • To 2022 First quarter ( The first 200 God ), The project has built a strong community and a large base of active players , Thus obtained by Delphi、DeFiance、3AC and Polygon Common lead 600 Ten thousand dollar financing

  • This is the price increase after the token airdrop 6.5 Times the reason

  • However , The external environment of the declining encryption market has hit the encryption game industry the most severely , As a result, its user indicators continue to decrease , At present, the price of the token has fallen to... Of its original airdrop price 0.44 times

although $UNI and $RAIDER It has been shown that airdrop tokens may perform well over a longer time span , But the overall sample shows Airdrops usually do not have a beneficial effect on the long-term price of tokens .

The founders want to allocate project tokens to participate in governance 、 Pledge or use it in the hands of community members .

According to the initial data on the chain or through the user index, the token can be dropped effectively , If there are rumors that the project will be airdropped , Will attract a lot of speculative air drop hunters ( for example Paraswap、Hop Protocol、Optimism).

The following figure shows each airdrop token in 200 The average number of price combinations in a day .

image

According to the historical average , stay 200 Within days , Only the two-day average price is better than the issue price —— The first 4 God (+1%) And the 18 God (+4%).

This indicates that the best time for users to sell airdrop tokens will be as early as possible , It is better to 1 Day and day 5 Between days ( Red shadow area ), Because the price fluctuation is very small during this period .

If the user does not want to participate in the project or does not like its token Economics , So selling the airdrop token as soon as possible seems to be the best strategy .

But in some cases , The team airdropped the token before it gained enough attraction , Users may not be optimistic about the project and decide to sell the airdrop token on the day of airdrop . Later, when the project side improved , These users realized that they had participated in the project and owned shares .

The best time to buy the airdrop token again is after the airdrop 5 To 6 Months ( Shaded green areas ), The lowest average price is 0.33 times ( From... Of the price on the release date -67%).

for example , If the user is on the... Day after airdrop 150 Sky buying $UNI and $OSMO, And in the first place 200 Day sell , Will be obtained separately +42% and +59% Net income . This strategy may be applicable to the projects that play their own value after several months of airdrop , Assessment indicators include the level of activity in their communities 、 And the ecosystem foundation ( for example The etheric fang 、Cosmos) Communication relationship , And the speed of the agreement in planning and delivering the roadmap .

Conclusion

If you're a developer / Project founder , Consideration should be given to allocating tokens in a different way than airdrop or to increasing product visibility .

From the historical data , Airdrop is harmful to the long-term price trend of the project token . This paper does not discuss the effectiveness of airdrop on other project parameters , For example, the growth indicators of users 、 New wallet interaction 、TVL Increment, etc . But even if airdrops are effective in these areas , Are you willing to bear the selling pressure of early airdrop holders , To achieve this goal at the expense of the price of tokens ?

Alternative airdrop solutions :

  • Release airdrops according to the time ( stay 3 Linear airdrop within months , And let users apply every week )

  • Release airdrops according to the task ( Let users complete some milestone tasks and issue airdrops )

  • Release airdrops according to the combination of time and milestones ( According to the user's participation in the agreement, airdrops will be issued within a specific period of time )

If you are a retail holder who has received an airdrop , The following aspects need to be considered :

Whether the token is required to interact with this agreement ? If it is ,HODL.

Would selling it now have a major impact on me ? without ,HODL.

If you can continue to use the agreement without tokens ( for example Paraswap DEX Aggregator ) And can get great value at the time of sale ( for example dYdX Airdrop ), Then you may sell the airdrop immediately after the project party increases liquidity !

copyright notice
author[Chain catcher],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
https://en.netfreeman.com/2022/174/202206231913584707.html

Random recommended