current position:Home>TVL suffered the biggest decline in a single week and NFT market belief collapsed

TVL suffered the biggest decline in a single week and NFT market belief collapsed

2022-05-14 16:34:38Foresight Research

Market view

Macro liquidity

The overall monetary liquidity is tight . The United States 4 month CPI The data rose more than expected , Still in 1982 Years since 40 Near the annual high . The Fed will remain tough on this , It is possible to raise interest rates at each of the next two meetings 50 BPS . Under the vision of both maintaining economic growth and controlling inflation, a soft landing , The Fed has turned this war of resistance into a protracted war .BTC Because of the large scope of institutional capital , Lead to synchronous fluctuations in U.S. stocks , It is difficult to have an independent market in the short term .

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Indicators on the chain

Market panic has spread to long-term holders . There has been a relatively large reduction of long-term holders , Reduced from the high point by nearly 60,000 Of BTC. The current profit rate has come to 54%, Nearly half of BTC All in a state of loss .

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The data on the chain shows ,BTC The biggest pain point 14600 dollar , Liquidation scale 4.3 Billion dollars ; The pain point of the second liquidation 22300 dollar , Liquidation scale 3.4 Billion dollars .ETH The biggest pain point 930 dollar , Liquidation scale 10.0 Billion dollars ; The pain point of the second liquidation 1640 dollar , Liquidation scale 2.7 Billion dollars . In the past BTC At the end of each bear market cycle , There will be a landmark liquidation .

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BTC Long term market indicators

Long term trend indicators MVRV-ZScore Based on the total market cost , Reflect the overall profitability of the market . When the index is greater than 6 when , It's the top section ; When the index is less than 2 when , It's the bottom section . The current indicator is 0.8, It can be seen that although it has not reached the bottom of history , But enough to underestimate . Decline in the green range , They are basically historical bottoms , Such as 2015 year 、2018 year 、312, It is a rare opportunity to copy the bottom .

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BTC Short term market indicators

Futures fund rate : normal level . rate 0.05-0.1%, There are many long levers , It's the short-term top of the market ; rate -0.1-0%, There are many short levers , It's the short-term bottom of the market . The current average rate is close to 0, It's normal , The capital rate gradually turned negative .

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Futures long to short ratio :1.4. Multiple space ratio returns to normal value . The data of long space ratio fluctuates greatly , The reference meaning is weakened .

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Contract position : Contract position deleveraging 30%, lower than 519 Of 60%. From the perspective of never equalizing the contract , There should be a large-scale passive reduction .

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BTC Trend analysis

BTC Fall through 30000 Gateway , There are huge transactions in the market , The downward trend remains unchanged in the short term .BTC distance 21 year 11 The month fell to an all-time high 60%, contrast 15 Years and 18 Bear market in , The decline ranges are 86% and 84%. From the historical cost of the market 24000, Mine machine shutdown price 23000 Wait and see ,BTC It's still a long way from the lowest point in history .

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Plate up and down Top 100

This week, BTC A sharp decline 28%.Terra Of UST A serious anchor breaking event occurred , And because of selling BTC and ETH Reserves lead to BTC and ETH tumbling , This matter has also attracted Yellen's attention . The probability in a bear market is BTC Lead the rebound , Then after consolidation, Zhongshan stronghold coins were sucked to make up for the fall , Greatly improve BTC Market share .

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Market data

Total lock volume of public chain

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In addition to the decline at the market end ,UST The credit collapse caused the whole market to Staking Of concern , Most agreements have been hit hard , Among them, the loan agreement is the most affected , One week TVL The total fell 84.48B, The decline reached 42.89%; Its effect on TVL The impact is far greater than “3.12” and “5.19”, The largest decline in a single week in history , The total decline is the largest .

Each public chain TVL Proportion

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This week, Terra The chain basically disappeared ,ETH Chain reset TVL The proportion increased to 64.26%, Increase in proportion in one week 9.2%, Basically restored to 21 October 2010 level ; In addition, the biggest beneficiaries are BSC and Tron, The proportion increased respectively 1.55% and 1.17%.Terra There may be some new challengers , In the short term, small public chains deserve attention .

Lock volume of each chain agreement

ETH Lock volume

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BSC Lock volume

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Solana Lock volume

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Avalanche Lock volume

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Polygon Lock volume

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Fantom Lock volume

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Terra Lock volume

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Summary of this week's agreement

This week basically faces the whole agreement TVL Both showed a large decline , Among them BSC Chain agreements have the least impact , The lowest decline .

ETH Gas fee History

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Currently, the cost of online transfer is about $7.87,Uniswap The transaction cost is about $26.84,Opensea The transaction cost is about $29.43, The trading volume on the chain has increased significantly , Especially in 5 month 12 Japan , Daily average Gas super 200, It is the highest daily average in the past six months , Chain transactions are expensive .

NFT Changes in market data

NFT The market value of the index

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NFT Market transaction overview

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NFT“ Smart money ” Purchase order

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There was a credit collapse on the market side this week ,NFT The market is also accompanied by a collapse of faith , With Azuki An article by the founder exploded “ Scandal ”,Azuki NFT Fell in response , Against the highest income NFT Project halo , Considered most likely to exceed BAYC Project , The floor price appears within three days 18ETH To 7ETH In the fall , At the same time, it also drives the whole NFT A sharp decline in market value . The short-term items of concern are Otherdeed for otherside, The project consists of BAYC The founding team of Yuga Labs On 5 month 1 in Opensea On sale , In the form of Dutch auction, a total of 55000 pen , The purchase needs to be made by using ETH On Apecoin Make payment , The popularity of the sale led to Gas The fee once reached 10000gwei, And in 6000gwei Stop 3 Hours , A single stroke Mint Cost up to 1500 dollar , According to the cast at that time 305APE Price calculation , About equal to 2.15ETH, The total amount of financing for this sale is 3.2 Billion dollars , After the sale, in Opensea At one time, the price on the market also reached 10ETH above , But it is also affected by NFT Market and ETH Currency price diving affects , at present Opensea The floor price is 3ETH, The selling price was close to the US dollar at that time .

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Latest financing of the project

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disclaimer :Foresight Ventures All articles are not used as investment advice . Investment is risky , Please assess your personal risk tolerance , Make prudent investment decisions .

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