current position:Home>519 last year, 510 this year - from the perspective of chain analysis, will Luna really fall into the death spiral?

519 last year, 510 this year - from the perspective of chain analysis, will Luna really fall into the death spiral?

2022-05-14 21:19:37SharkTeam

02022 year 5 month 7 Japan , Sell a lot of value in whales 2.85 $ UST after ,LUNA / USD stay 5 month 7 solstice 5 month 8 It fell between the dates 20%, achieve 61 dollar , The lowest level in three months . Because of this sell-off ,UST Briefly lost the exchange rate linked to the US dollar , Fell to 0.98 The low dollar .

2022 year 5 month 10 Japan UST The stable currency is again sharply decoupled from the US dollar , Fell to 0.68 dollar , Set a new low in history .LFG(Luna Foundation Guard) Announce that it will 15 Billion of bitcoin reserves “ The loan ” To professional market makers to keep the anchor .UST and LUNA In revealing LFG Will lend 15 $ BTC and UST after ,LFG Our public bitcoin and Ethereum wallet have been exhausted . With a lot of money invested ,UST Prices are gradually picking up , Has returned 0.9 More than $ .image.png

Actually , This is no longer UDT First appearance “ Take off the anchor ” The state of .2021 year 5 month 19 Japan (519), The market fell sharply .UST Just because of the spiral liquidation, there is a price “ Take off the anchor ” The state of , Once off anchor 10% above , Almost into the vicious circle of confidence collapse .

many times “ Take off the anchor ” The appearance of the situation shows that ,“ bear market ” Under the dual threat of market conditions and deliberate attackers ,Luna The risk of falling into a death spiral is high .image.png

2022 year 1 month ,MakerDAO cofounder Rune On twitter :Terra Ecological stability currency UST and abracadabra Ecological stability currency MIM It's a real Ponzi scheme (solid ponzis). Twitter users 0xHamz The post described what might happen UST Decoupling and LUNA The worst case of the death spiral .

2022 year 3 month , In response to ,LFG Declare to reserve 100 Billion dollars BTC To deal with possible UST Decoupling .

this ,2022 year 5 month 7 Day and 5 month 10 Japan ,UST Again “ Take off the anchor ”,LFG Our public bitcoin and Ethereum wallets are exhausted .

Addresses and data don't lie ,SharkTeam Let me show you from the perspective of chain analysis LUNA How did the death spiral come into being , How big is the risk , When will ?

One 、 Why is there a death spiral , Under what circumstances will there be a death spiral ?

(1) business model : The algorithm stabilizes the currency (UST/Luna) And high interest rates (Anchor

This is from Terra Business model .Terra The core design idea of ecology is around how to expand and stabilize the environment UST Usage scenarios and payment requirements ,UST The operation of the uses a dual Token Design ,Luna: government 、 Pledge and verification Token,UST: A stable currency pegged to the original dollar . The simple understanding is that whenever a UST Cast , You have to burn a dollar worth of Luna, And Luna Help maintain... Through arbitrage mechanisms UST Pegging to the dollar : If $UST The price for > 1$, There is a chance to destroy $Luna , Casting $UST, And take the difference linked to as profit ; If UST by < 1$, It can be for $Luna Burn up $UST To restore the hook , In less than 1 Buy... For us dollars 1 UST And get value 1 The dollar Luna, Then sell $Luna Reap profit .

Anchor Protocol( hereinafter referred to as Anchor) yes Terra The official in the 2021 year 3 Month launched DeFi platform , The essence is Lending, And Compund similar . but Ancho The particularity of is the extremely high APY(Annual Percentage Yield, Annualized rate of return ), Remain at all times 20% about . Under the stimulation of aging , The user to UST The demand for food has skyrocketed , This is also UST The core of our business . stay Terra In the ecological ,Anchor As “ State banks ” Role , Promised 20% Ultra high current yield , To absorb public deposits ( With UST In the form of ).

(2) Revenue and expenditure model : To make ends meet , Bury the hidden danger

Anchor The main income comes from borrowing interest + Loan collateral PoS Bonus income ( At present for bLUNA and bETH)+ Liquidation penalty ;Anchor The main expenditure of is about 20% Annualized deposit interest ,Anchor It also provides a higher price for the borrower ANC Token subsidy , In order to maintain ANC The token price of ,Anchor There are also additional ANC Token price maintenance cost , I.e. solution ANC The selling pressure of tokens .

This is UST and Luna Revenue and expenditure model , According to the current UST and Luna Body mass , It needs to bear an additional operating cost of about $1 billion a year , The light on Anchor Obviously, I can't afford the expense . therefore , stay 2022 year 2 month , stay Anchor When the reserve pool is about to run out ,LFG Declared as Anchor Grant money 4.5 Billion UST, To enrich its reserve pool . This confirms one point :Anchor Unlike other loan agreements , Its essence is Terra A component of the planned economy , Its current business operation is not for profit , It's a matter of Terra Officially funded 、 by UST Scenario products that provide subsidies for scale expansion .

(3) The emergence of the death spiral

Through the above analysis , It can be seen that Terra The complete logic is : adopt Anchor Self made scenes 、 Create stable currency demand ; Demand driven UST Casting scale , Attract users ; Users keep coming in , Create ecological data performance (TVL、 Number of addresses 、 Number of items, etc ) And gradually push up Luna Price ; The project party or foundation passes Luna Cash out funds , And subsidize , Maintain high annualized returns , In this cycle .

If the above cycle is stable ,UST yes Luna The engine of ,Luna yes UST The stabilizer , more Web3 Project and user influx , The two interact , When the trend is good , Form a positive spiral .

But when Luna The market value becomes lower relative to the stable currency 、 Trading depth decreases , The collateral will be insufficient , The risk of losing the anchor of the stable currency will become greater , The higher the cost of maintaining consensus , Fall into the death spiral . such as , The market as a whole fell sharply ,Luna When you can't escape , Or when someone can stop Luna When it comes to price , The death spiral will appear .

(4) How high is the threshold for the emergence of the death spiral , What is the risk ?

Of course, the project side is aware of the importance of maintaining circulation and subsidy sources , Measures are also being taken to increase production reserves .Anchor Adding new mortgage assets :bLuna、bETH、wasAVAX、bATOM, This will also help increase Anchor The profits of the . Introduce anchor dynamic rate , According to the proposal , The anchor rate of return will be at a monthly rate 1.5% It's going down , The minimum APY Set to 15%, Will be in 3 Reach... Within months , But if Anchor Of APY Lower than people want , People are right. UST and Luna Demand will fall ,UST The demand becomes smaller , Will cast more Luna, Luna The price of... Fell .

therefore , The death spiral may come from the overall decline of the market ,Anchor APY falling , Targeted blocking Luna There are three cases of price . So far ,Terra The emergence of the death spiral is almost inevitable , High risk . Of course ,LFG The establishment of BTC Included in the UST Under actions such as reserves and redemptions ,Terra Ecology is also trying to maintain a positive business cycle , But in extreme markets , Whether we can effectively deal with more sudden complex situations and prevent moving towards the death spiral , All this still needs time to verify .

Two 、 From the perspective of chain analysis ,UST The cause of this breakout

stay 5 month 7 No. to 10 Number , Whale users terra1yl8l5dzz4jhnzzh6jxq6pdezd2z4qgmgrdt82k 3 Sold... Within days 1.96 Billion UST; Whale users terra195wtjmpjxhp336mclqfsyk2plvs8mw3lhsc5nc 3 Sold... Within days 1.76 Billion UST.image.png among ,terra1yl8l5dzz4jhnzzh6jxq6pdezd2z4qgmgrdt82k Yes 4525 ten thousand UST To the money security exchange :image.png

except UST Take off the anchor , from 5 month 9 Sunday night ,Luna There has also been an unconventional sharp decline in the price of . Under the double blow , Yes UST The market panic of breaking off the anchor has gradually formed , hold UST Drag into the death spiral .image.png

You can see ,UST and Luna All the price drops are due to the sudden unconventional collapse of prices , There is a great possibility of selling the giant whale account , Is aimed at Terra There is a great possibility of ecological precision blocking . Specific performance: :

(1) A single player is Curve and Binance A lot of work has been done on 2.85 $ UST Sell off .

(2)Luna A lot of short positions on the .

(3) Hundreds of twitter Posts continue to discredit Terra and UST ecology .

But I have to say that , Except for the loss of the project party , A large number of ordinary investors have suffered huge losses .

3、 ... and 、 From the chain analysis , What is the strength of the project party , Are there any similar risks in the future ?

end 5 month 9 Japan ,LFG The total holding value is about 35 Billion of bitcoin reserves , Designed for extreme situations , Only for emergency rescue , Only in LUNA When the stabilization mechanism fails , Will use the emergency reserve . This means that UST Sold off in large quantities 、LUNA In the extreme case of a sharp decline in prices , Bitcoin as a and Terra Foreign exchange reserves with weak economic relevance , by Terra Intervene in the exchange rate ( Stay anchored to the dollar ) Added a policy tool , Like this time .

LFG Bitcoin wallet :bc1q9d4ywgfnd8h43da5tpcxcn6ajv590cg6d3tg6axemvljvt2k76zs50tv4q stay 5 month 10 Nissan has made two large transfers , Respectively 28205BTC and 42530BTC, among ,28205BTC The funds for the transaction went directly to the suspect Binance The address of your wallet .image.png

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according to Terra Project founder Do Kwon describe ,BTC The sale of can be for the purchase of UST funding , So as to stabilize UST The price of the currency .LFG The capital flow of bitcoin address conforms to Do Kwon What is described is the strategy . About BTC The source of the , according to cointelegraph news , stay 5 month 5 Japan ,LFG Just through Genesis OTC and Three Arrows Capital bought 37863BTC For service UST Currency price stability .image.png

ChainAegis The platform is also good for LFG The fund balance history of the address is recorded :image.png

You can see ,2022 year 3 Since the month ,LFG We have been increasing our understanding of BTC The amount of reserves , Up to 42350BTC. It's just 5 month 10 day ,LFG The address used up all the accumulated BTC reserve , And transferred in and consumed... On the same day 28205BTC. By the end of time , The address outputs a total of 70736BTC, Used to stabilize 5 month 10 Japanese UST Price crash , At present UST The price goes back to $0.9 above , Lower point ($0.6879) A sharp rebound , But distance 1 There is still a gap in the anchored price of the dollar , The problem of breaking off the anchor is still not completely solved .

Comprehensive, , from LFG Our ability to save the market and Luna From the development background , The ability of the project side and the foundation is very strong . Under the shadow of death, the business spiral model exists , This is not an equal war , Attacker calls 10 Capital less than US $100 million is building momentum in combination with public opinion ,Terra The project side needs to pay several times of capital investment and experience to transfer the situation . therefore , It is still very likely that similar risk events will occur again in the future , I hope you can invest carefully .

SharkTeam We will also continue to track and identify the biggest beneficiaries , Strive to restore the whole story . image 2021 Year of 519 equally ,2022 Year of 510 It's also a milestone , The value of our in-depth analysis and understanding .

About us : SharkTeam Our vision is to fully protect Web3 The security of the world . The team members are located in Beijing 、 nanjing 、 Silicon valley , It is composed of experienced security professionals and senior researchers from all over the world , Proficient in the underlying theory of blockchain and smart contract , Provide, including threat modeling 、 Smart contract audit 、 Comprehensive services including emergency response . We have worked with key players in various fields of the blockchain ecosystem , Such as Huobi Global、OKX、polygon、Polkadot、imToken、ChainIDE And establish a long-term cooperative relationship .

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