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How long will the encryption bear market last when bitcoin falls below $30000?

2022-05-15 04:31:23Sina Finance blockchain

   As central banks raise interest rates 、 Curb inflation , Global financial markets have continued to decline in the past few months , Encrypted finance is also difficult to survive .

   Beijing time. 5 month 10 The morning of 8 spot ,BTC Finally fell below 3 Million dollar psychological gateway , Create near 10 Month low ,24 Hour drop 11%, The highest decline in other cryptocurrencies was generally in 20% above . The coin Coin data display , In the past 24 Hours in total 10.5 A $100 million explosion .

  NFT The market has also been affected , Popular blue chip BAYC、Azuki etc. NFT Floor price 24 The hourly decline was more than 20%, And reduced liquidity , Trading volume plummeted .

   Besides , The share prices of crypto listed companies also fell in a waterfall , Common in 10% above . among Coinabse Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 32%, Set a new low in history 70.19 dollar , At present, it is maintained at 73 Near the dollar , a IPO Offering price (250 dollar ) fall 70.8%; The largest bitcoin holding listed company MicroStrategy Stocks 24 The highest drop in an hour 25.55%, Temporarily to 225.52 dollar .

   The market howled , Someone shouted ‘ The crypto bear market has come to ’, Choose to cut meat and leave ; There are also people who go against the market to copy the bottom , Keep going long Web3. Has the encryption market really entered the dark moment ?Web3 Do you still have a chance to return blood in the short term ?

   One 、 Market resumption : Bitcoin is falling 3 Million mark

   And ‘312’、‘519’ The two sharp falls are different , Bitcoin's cyclical decline , Indeed ‘ Cut meat with a blunt knife ’, It lasted nearly two months .

  3 month 28 Japan , Bitcoin hit a new high this year 48200 dollar , And is about to break through ‘ The dividing line between cattle and bears ’——200 Daily moving average (MA200). At the time , Under the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine , Global financial markets generally perform poorly , The bitcoin is full of expectations , And think it can get out of the independent market , Even break through... Within a year 10 Million dollars .

   However , Extreme prosperity forebodes the beginning of decline. , This expectation was soon beaten in the face by reality .

   After hitting a new high this year , Bitcoin in 45000 It's been around the dollar for nearly a week , until 4 month 5 Japan , Officially established the downward direction , Opened for a long time 1 More than a month of overcast decline . All April , Bitcoin's highest one-day decline was only 6%, Most of the time, the decline is only 2% about , Long and empty forces surround 4 Compete at the $10000 level , But the rebound time is less , It also seems to indicate the rout of bulls today .

  5 month 5 Japan , Bitcoin began to accelerate its downward trend , Successively falling below the important support level , And in 5 month 9 The power of Japanese short sellers reached its peak ; In the past 24 Hours , Bitcoin from 34000 The dollar fell below 3 Ten thousand dollar mark , At the very lowest 29725 dollar , The biggest drop 12.5%;5 Since the month , The largest cumulative decline of bitcoin 25.6%; As of press time ,BTC Bounce back to 31000 The dollar line .

   Apart from bitcoin , Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have also been hit hard . among ETH 24 The biggest drop in an hour 13%, Fall through 2200 dollar , The largest cumulative decline in the year 43.4%;BNB 、SOL、XRP、ADA Wait for the top ten cryptocurrencies in the market , The general decline is 15% above ; suffer UST The impact of anchor release ( At one point the price fell to 0.66 dollar ),LUNA Prices in the past 24 Cut your back in an hour , The highest drop 63%, It is currently located in 16 About $ .

   Affected by this , The market value of the whole encryption market , In the past 48 Hours shrink 1300 Billion dollars , Temporarily to 1.5  Trillions of dollars , fall 8%; Since the beginning of the year , The total market value of encryption has shrunk 8300 Billion dollars , fall 36%.

   According to the currency Coin data , In the past 24 In total, the whole network burst positions every hour 10.5 Billion dollars , share 28.94 Ten thousand people have become victims of warehouse explosion , The biggest single position explosion 2326 Thousands of dollars ; In the past 30 God , The whole network has burst positions in total 70 Billion dollars . contrast ‘519’ Burst data (69.1  Billion dollars , about 58 Ten thousand people burst their positions ), It can also be seen that the development of derivatives market is becoming mature .

   actually , A month before the crash , Derivatives users have taken the initiative to reduce leverage . according to The Block The April encryption market analysis data released shows that ,BTC/ETH There was a double drop in the open positions of futures and options , The trading volume of bitcoin futures contract and Ethereum futures contract is also declining , The monthly trading volume of bitcoin futures fell to 1.03 Trillions of dollars , Decline to 20.2%.

   In terms of chain transactions , According to the data of the master of okoyun chain , Cut in DeFi Mortgage lending 24 The hourly clearing volume reaches 7000 Thousands of dollars , Near establishment 90 Sky high ; Cut in DeFi The lock volume is continuous 6 Daily decline , a 2022 The annual peak fell by more than 35%.

   Besides , The user's transaction enthusiasm is greatly reduced , Today's panic and greed index is 10( Yesterday was 11), The level of panic is higher than yesterday , The level is still extreme panic .

   Affected by the sharp decline of the market ,NFT The market is also beginning to get cold . In yesterday's decline ,BAYC The number of pending orders surged , But the trading volume is low , In order to cash out as soon as possible , Some users choose to sell at a low price NFT, As a result, the floor price continues to move down data display ,BAYC、Azuki Blue chip NFT The price of series flooring used to be 24 The hourly decline was more than 20%. among BAYC series NFT The floor price once fell to 89.9 ETH, Trading volume has fallen over the past week 50%;MAYC series NFT The floor price fell to 17.98 ETH,Azuki series NFT The floor price fell to 10.5 ETH.

   Encryption related listed companies were also affected by the falling market , Share prices generally fell in 10% above . The first share of mining machinery, Jianan Technology (NASDAQ: CAN) Temporarily to 3.18 dollar ,48 The highest drop in an hour 25.3%; Encryption platform Coinabse Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 32%, Set a new low in history 70.19 dollar , At present, it is maintained at 73 Near the dollar , a IPO Offering price (250 dollar ) fall 70.8%; The largest bitcoin holding listed company MicroStrategy Stocks 48 The highest drop in an hour 25.55%, Temporarily to 225.52 dollar ; Tesla shares fell 9%,Robinhood Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 11.3%.

   According to  Coindesk  news , Financial services companies focusing on cryptocurrency Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Loss in the first quarter 1.117 Billion dollars , And the same period last year ( First quarter ) Yes 8.582 Billion dollars in revenue .

   Two 、 Against the background of inflation and interest rate hike ,Crypto Fell as frequently as US stocks

   Every time the encryption market goes down , The market should explore the causes . This time, , The algorithm stabilizes the currency UST‘ goog ’, Become a ‘ Back pot man ’.

   These two days , A picture is widely circulated in the encryption community , teasing UST The breakaway belt collapsed the whole encryption market : At first , They use air LUNA Pledge generation UST, I didn't talk , Because I didn't LUNA…… Finally, because UST Take off the anchor and smash BTC Bring down the whole market , But no one stood up to speak for me .

   According to the sky eye data monitoring on okiyun chain , Marked as Terra The of ecological non-profit organizations Luna Foundation Guard(LFG) Your address is at 10 Transfer out again on the morning of the th 28,205.5 Bitcoin , The balance of the address has been cleared up to the time of sending the document , It seems to have confirmed the rumor of smashing the plate . But then LFG Express , Will issue 15 US $billion loan , To help stabilize UST Price , And there are rumors that Jump、Alameda Wait for the company to provide 20 US $100 million rescue UST. Recommended reading 《 Turn on the death spiral or The stress test is over ?UST Can it be saved 》

   in my opinion ,UST This breakout is just a black swan event of the downward trend of the encryption market , It is far from a condition to promote the collapse of the whole market . As I said before , Bitcoin's downward trend began with 3 late , Largely due to changes in external macroeconomic policies : As central banks , In particular, the Fed raised interest rates , Global financial assets have entered a panic selling stage , Encrypted finance is difficult to do alone .

   To curb rising inflationary pressures , Central banks have tightened monetary policy , Raising interest rates has become the most important event in the global financial markets in the past few months , Among them, the Fed has paid the highest attention to raising interest rates .

   This year, 1 Since the monthly interest meeting , The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates continues to disturb the US stock market ;2 month , The U.S. Department of labor released the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) gen 40 Annual high , Increase external expectations of interest rate hike again ; However , until 3 Mid month , The boots finally landed .

  3 month 17 Japan , The Federal Reserve announced an increase in interest rates 25 BPS ( namely 0.25%), Raise the target range of the federal funds rate to 0.25%—0.5%, This is a 2018 The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since . More Than This , The Fed also revealed more radical measures , It is expected to raise interest rates at the six policy meetings this year , In order to increase efforts to slow down 40 The highest level of inflation in years , Besides 5 The reduction of 9 Trillion dollar balance sheet process .

   Worried that the Fed's measures to control inflation may lead to economic recession and liquidity crisis , In order to avoid risks, US stock investors began to sell off their financial assets , The three major stock indexes of US stocks have fallen sharply in the past few months : Dow from 36800 The historical high has fallen to the current 32120 spot , The biggest drop 12.7%; Na refers to... From the beginning of the year 15832 The point fell to the current 11688 spot , The biggest drop 26.1%; The s&p 500 The index is close to 5000 The high point fell to 3,988 spot , Fall through 4000 mark , The biggest drop 20.1%.

   especially 5 month 5 Japan , The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision again , Raise the benchmark interest rate 50 BPS to 0.75%-1.00% Section , by 2000 year 5 The biggest interest rate hike since January , At the same time 6 The reduction plan starting in January . This interest rate increase , It triggered a new round of panic selling , U.S. stocks hit a record 52 Zhou Xindi , The encryption market has also been affected .

   Over the past two years , Bitcoin and US stocks , Especially S & P 500 The relevance of . The root cause is , The implementation of quantitative easing policy under the epidemic situation , More traditional funds begin to pay attention to and invest in bitcoin , Treat it as an emerging asset class in order to gain asset appreciation , This has also contributed to the bull market in the encryption market in the past two years . However , With the global interest rate hike, monetary tightening , Traditional funds began to sell highly volatile assets , With good liquidity Crypto And U.S. stocks have become ‘ sacrifice ’, Co seismic , Both opened the falling market .

   actually ,Crypto Sell off , It is also verified in the data analysis on the chain . The data of Oko cloud chain shows that , since 5 Since the beginning of the month , Include Coinbase Many encryption platforms, including, continue to flow into large bitcoin , At present, the capital inflow of bitcoin exchange is a record 5 high ; According to the analysis platform on the chain  Santiment  The data of , A lot of Ethereum tokens are flowing into the exchange , In the past two weeks ,330000 ETH( Value is close to 8.25 Billion dollars ) Has been transferred to the cryptocurrency exchange wallet , The increase in inflows may indicate that reduced demand leads to increased selling pressure .

   In addition to the unstable macro environment of global financial markets , Cryptofinance itself has also entered the bottleneck of development , Stock funds are drained , Few incremental entrances .

  2021 year ,NFT The market is booming , Record trading volume . according to L‘Atelier The report ,2021 year NFT Sales reach 176 Billion dollars , The month on month growth is about 210 times ,NFT The number of buyers ranges from 7.5 Wan to 230 ten thousand . meanwhile ,NFT Trading also creates good profits for investors , Investors through NFT Reap profit 54 Billion dollars .

  NFT Continued high trading enthusiasm , It also continued into the second quarter of this year , The floor price of several blue chip projects has continuously hit a new high , And new projects emerge one after another , Continuously draw stock funds from the market . According to blockchain analysis company  Nansen  The data of , Since the beginning of April , The address of a professional investor is already in NFT Invested in 4864 ETH, And got it. 17581 ETH The return of , stay NFT Net profit from the transaction 12717 ETH.

   actually , It's not just NFT,GameFi、 Meta universe 、X To Earn And other new projects have sprung up , With all kinds of fake coins 、 Air currency has replaced a lot of value currency (BTC、ETH、 Stable currency ). In a bull market , This kind of play boosts the formation of foam , Everyone is making money ; In the bear market , The foam burst quickly , Eventually lead to the collapse of the whole market .

   3、 ... and 、 When to get out of the bear market ?

   The price of bitcoin has hit nearly 10 Month low , There is a big drop below ‘519’ Low trend . About the future trend of encryption Finance , At present, there are great differences of views in the market .

   Pessimists believe that , The encryption market has entered a bear market , The market may fall further .

   Blockchain analysis company  Glassnode  Recent research says , According to the Mayer multiplier (Meyer Multiple) Index analysis , At present, it is still in a bear market . This indicator shows that , It may have passed the initial stage of the late bear market , And has entered the second half of the bear market . However , According to the previous cycle , It also suggests that it may take some time , The market has not provided enough demand and price appreciation , To achieve sustainable profits and capital inflows .( notes : Mayer multiplier is one of the most well-known indicators of bitcoin , The index is price and 200 Simple ratio between daily moving averages , It provides a powerful and reliable indicator of long-term bottom and top formation for the bitcoin cycle .)

   Cryptocurrency investment platform based on algorithm Mudrex CEO  Edul Patel  Express , The rise in interest rates has caused individual and institutional investors to pause thinking about the prospects of the encryption market . He said :“ This downward trend is likely to continue in the next few days . Bitcoin may continue to test 3 $10000 level .”

   Cryptocurrency trading platform Luno Pte Vice president for development and international affairs  Vijay Ayyar  Express , The overall market is still under pressure from inflation and growth concerns , If bitcoin breaks through 30000 dollar , Fear of further falling to 25000 dollar , Then there will be any “ major ” rebound .

   without doubt ,3 Million dollars is the psychological gateway for many institutional investors and encryption investors , At the same time, it is also the bitcoin position cost line of many listed companies .Odaily Last year, planet daily counted the positions of eight listed companies (, The average bitcoin holding cost is 26029 dollar , Compared with last year's market low 28800 Dollars are not far apart ; and 5 month 10 The price of bitcoin once fell below MicroStrategy Cost price (30700 dollar ) It also rebounded rapidly after , It also seems to indicate that the support of this point is strong .

   in addition , Considering that cryptofinance is affected by US stocks , The two may rebound at the same frequency in the future .Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz Forecast on the recent earnings conference call , The encryption market will continue to decline , He doesn't think encryption recovery will happen in the next two months . He added , Cryptocurrency will compete with NASDAQ 100 The index remains highly correlated , He said “ Very confident ”, Once the stock market finds “ Some kind of bottom ”, Bitcoin will rebound .

   that , When will U.S. stocks rebound in the end ? According to the Bank of America's latest report , In the past 140 The US stock market has experienced a total of 19 The second bear market , The average fall 37.3%, The average duration is 289 God . Although past performance does not fully represent future performance , But if we take historical performance as a reference , The Bank of America team calculated that , The current bear market will start this year 10 month 19 End of the day , Then S & P 500 The index will reach 3000 spot , The Nasdaq composite index will reach 10000 spot . One brought by Bank of America “ The good news ” yes , At present, many US stocks have fallen to the bear market area . In other words , Bitcoin and the whole crypto finance will be in the coming months , There may not be a big positive reversal .

   however , Optimists believe that the price of bitcoin has been seriously underestimated , The bear market is coming to an end .

   Encrypted asset management institution Amber In the latest analysis report, it is pointed out that :“ From the data analysis on the chain , Falling prices have caused some long-term holders to stop losses , And redistribute bitcoin to new buyers . Although we see realized losses dominate the market , But the current price is lower than 200 Daily moving average 80%, In the history of bitcoin trading, there are less than 15% At or below 200 Daily moving average 80% Price , This is a noteworthy indicator that bitcoin is currently undervalued .

   Ark Fund (ARK Invest) founder Cathie Wood( Sister wood ) Think , Express , There is a growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets , This shows that the bear market will soon end .“ Cryptocurrency as a new asset class , It shouldn't look like NASDAQ , But it does look like . It is now highly correlated . You know you're in a bear market , Maybe when everything starts to look similar , It's almost over , We are seeing the surrender of one market after another .”

   Despite the current market downturn , She still has long-term confidence in cryptocurrency , Because with ARK Like other investment categories in , She believes cryptocurrency will grow exponentially with the peak market and society . according to Wood That's what I'm saying , Blockchain is one of the industries that provide exponential growth opportunities , She thinks these industries ( Artificial intelligence and blockchain technology ) some time 7 To 8 The total valuation will increase during the year 21 times .

   analysts PlanB Tweet scale ,BTC The moon line RSI lower than 50, It indicates that the price may test in the short term 26000 dollar ; however , According to its 2019 year 3 Published in S2F Model ,PlanB Believe in BTC Prices will continue to grow in the coming years .

   Four 、BTC Forever ,Web3 Immortal

   In the past decade or so , Bitcoin has experienced more than one slump , Market panic is also expected , But eventually bitcoin survived tenaciously , So investors don't have to be overly pessimistic . What we should be thinking about , How to really Web3 Do big , Attract more incremental ( user 、 Money ) admission .

   From the perspective of bitcoin , Although the holder includes retail traders 、 High net worth traders 、 Some hedge funds and professional funds , But the basic plate is still not big enough . The proportion of listed companies equipped with bitcoin as asset reserve is very small compared with the whole traditional financial market , The asset volume is even less than 1%; Besides , Nor do sovereign wealth funds hold BTC. This means that when cryptocurrencies fall , There are not enough buyers to support the market . Only when the basic disk of bitcoin is large enough , To really resist risks .

   From the perspective of global market distribution ,Web3 In Europe 、 beautiful 、 The development of the Asian region is becoming more and more mature , In other underdeveloped areas, there is still a high development potential that can be tapped .

   Take Africa as an example , Due to the extreme lack of banking services , Cryptocurrency has become an important alternative to cross-border payment . data display ,2020 In, the African continent has developed into a cryptosystem P2P The second largest area of trading , Nigeria 、 Kenya and South Africa have become active areas of encrypted transactions in Africa ;2021 year , Africa continues to occupy a central position , The adoption rate of cryptocurrency has soared 1200%, Kenya has been in... For the second year in a row P2P Ranked first in the world in terms of transaction volume . The United States Insights Company reports show , The adoption rate of cryptocurrency among the bottom population in Africa is also the highest in the world .

   Although the spot market fell , But judging from the recent financing ,Web3 It is still an important track for institutions with heavy positions .The Block  Statistics display , The encryption industry 4 In a total of 244 Investment and financing transactions , Record high . Besides , Several new venture capital funds launched , Include Dragonfly Capital、Union Square Ventures and Framework Ventures New fund .

   To make a long story short , At a time when global financial markets are generally depressed ,Web3 Still the most dynamic industry , And it is also the most important air outlet in the next decade . As the slogan of old venture capital Sequoia Capital says , There will continue to be people ‘All in Crypto’.( Mars Finance )

editor : Zhang Jingdi

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