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How long will the encryption bear market last when bitcoin falls below $30000?

2022-05-15 04:31:23Sina Finance blockchain

   As central banks raise interest rates 、 Curb inflation , Global financial markets have continued to decline in the past few months , Encrypted finance is also difficult to survive .

   Beijing time. 5 month 10 The morning of 8 spot ,BTC Finally fell below 3 Million dollar psychological gateway , Create near 10 Month low ,24 Hour drop 11%, The highest decline in other cryptocurrencies was generally in 20% above . The coin Coin data display , In the past 24 Hours in total 10.5 A $100 million explosion .

  NFT The market has also been affected , Popular blue chip BAYC、Azuki etc. NFT Floor price 24 The hourly decline was more than 20%, And reduced liquidity , Trading volume plummeted .

   Besides , The share prices of crypto listed companies also fell in a waterfall , Common in 10% above . among Coinabse Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 32%, Set a new low in history 70.19 dollar , At present, it is maintained at 73 Near the dollar , a IPO Offering price (250 dollar ) fall 70.8%; The largest bitcoin holding listed company MicroStrategy Stocks 24 The highest drop in an hour 25.55%, Temporarily to 225.52 dollar .

   The market howled , Someone shouted ‘ The crypto bear market has come to ’, Choose to cut meat and leave ; There are also people who go against the market to copy the bottom , Keep going long Web3. Has the encryption market really entered the dark moment ?Web3 Do you still have a chance to return blood in the short term ?

   One 、 Market resumption : Bitcoin is falling 3 Million mark

   And ‘312’、‘519’ The two sharp falls are different , Bitcoin's cyclical decline , Indeed ‘ Cut meat with a blunt knife ’, It lasted nearly two months .

  3 month 28 Japan , Bitcoin hit a new high this year 48200 dollar , And is about to break through ‘ The dividing line between cattle and bears ’——200 Daily moving average (MA200). At the time , Under the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine , Global financial markets generally perform poorly , The bitcoin is full of expectations , And think it can get out of the independent market , Even break through... Within a year 10 Million dollars .

   However , Extreme prosperity forebodes the beginning of decline. , This expectation was soon beaten in the face by reality .

   After hitting a new high this year , Bitcoin in 45000 It's been around the dollar for nearly a week , until 4 month 5 Japan , Officially established the downward direction , Opened for a long time 1 More than a month of overcast decline . All April , Bitcoin's highest one-day decline was only 6%, Most of the time, the decline is only 2% about , Long and empty forces surround 4 Compete at the $10000 level , But the rebound time is less , It also seems to indicate the rout of bulls today .

  5 month 5 Japan , Bitcoin began to accelerate its downward trend , Successively falling below the important support level , And in 5 month 9 The power of Japanese short sellers reached its peak ; In the past 24 Hours , Bitcoin from 34000 The dollar fell below 3 Ten thousand dollar mark , At the very lowest 29725 dollar , The biggest drop 12.5%;5 Since the month , The largest cumulative decline of bitcoin 25.6%; As of press time ,BTC Bounce back to 31000 The dollar line .

   Apart from bitcoin , Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have also been hit hard . among ETH 24 The biggest drop in an hour 13%, Fall through 2200 dollar , The largest cumulative decline in the year 43.4%;BNB 、SOL、XRP、ADA Wait for the top ten cryptocurrencies in the market , The general decline is 15% above ; suffer UST The impact of anchor release ( At one point the price fell to 0.66 dollar ),LUNA Prices in the past 24 Cut your back in an hour , The highest drop 63%, It is currently located in 16 About $ .

   Affected by this , The market value of the whole encryption market , In the past 48 Hours shrink 1300 Billion dollars , Temporarily to 1.5  Trillions of dollars , fall 8%; Since the beginning of the year , The total market value of encryption has shrunk 8300 Billion dollars , fall 36%.

   According to the currency Coin data , In the past 24 In total, the whole network burst positions every hour 10.5 Billion dollars , share 28.94 Ten thousand people have become victims of warehouse explosion , The biggest single position explosion 2326 Thousands of dollars ; In the past 30 God , The whole network has burst positions in total 70 Billion dollars . contrast ‘519’ Burst data (69.1  Billion dollars , about 58 Ten thousand people burst their positions ), It can also be seen that the development of derivatives market is becoming mature .

   actually , A month before the crash , Derivatives users have taken the initiative to reduce leverage . according to The Block The April encryption market analysis data released shows that ,BTC/ETH There was a double drop in the open positions of futures and options , The trading volume of bitcoin futures contract and Ethereum futures contract is also declining , The monthly trading volume of bitcoin futures fell to 1.03 Trillions of dollars , Decline to 20.2%.

   In terms of chain transactions , According to the data of the master of okoyun chain , Cut in DeFi Mortgage lending 24 The hourly clearing volume reaches 7000 Thousands of dollars , Near establishment 90 Sky high ; Cut in DeFi The lock volume is continuous 6 Daily decline , a 2022 The annual peak fell by more than 35%.

   Besides , The user's transaction enthusiasm is greatly reduced , Today's panic and greed index is 10( Yesterday was 11), The level of panic is higher than yesterday , The level is still extreme panic .

   Affected by the sharp decline of the market ,NFT The market is also beginning to get cold . In yesterday's decline ,BAYC The number of pending orders surged , But the trading volume is low , In order to cash out as soon as possible , Some users choose to sell at a low price NFT, As a result, the floor price continues to move down .NFTGo.io data display ,BAYC、Azuki Blue chip NFT The price of series flooring used to be 24 The hourly decline was more than 20%. among BAYC series NFT The floor price once fell to 89.9 ETH, Trading volume has fallen over the past week 50%;MAYC series NFT The floor price fell to 17.98 ETH,Azuki series NFT The floor price fell to 10.5 ETH.

   Encryption related listed companies were also affected by the falling market , Share prices generally fell in 10% above . The first share of mining machinery, Jianan Technology (NASDAQ: CAN) Temporarily to 3.18 dollar ,48 The highest drop in an hour 25.3%; Encryption platform Coinabse Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 32%, Set a new low in history 70.19 dollar , At present, it is maintained at 73 Near the dollar , a IPO Offering price (250 dollar ) fall 70.8%; The largest bitcoin holding listed company MicroStrategy Stocks 48 The highest drop in an hour 25.55%, Temporarily to 225.52 dollar ; Tesla shares fell 9%,Robinhood Price of stock 48 The highest drop in an hour 11.3%.

   According to  Coindesk  news , Financial services companies focusing on cryptocurrency Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Loss in the first quarter 1.117 Billion dollars , And the same period last year ( First quarter ) Yes 8.582 Billion dollars in revenue .

   Two 、 Against the background of inflation and interest rate hike ,Crypto Fell as frequently as US stocks

   Every time the encryption market goes down , The market should explore the causes . This time, , The algorithm stabilizes the currency UST‘ goog ’, Become a ‘ Back pot man ’.

   These two days , A picture is widely circulated in the encryption community , teasing UST The breakaway belt collapsed the whole encryption market : At first , They use air LUNA Pledge generation UST, I didn't talk , Because I didn't LUNA…… Finally, because UST Take off the anchor and smash BTC Bring down the whole market , But no one stood up to speak for me .

   According to the sky eye data monitoring on okiyun chain , Marked as Terra The of ecological non-profit organizations Luna Foundation Guard(LFG) Your address is at 10 Transfer out again on the morning of the th 28,205.5 Bitcoin , The balance of the address has been cleared up to the time of sending the document , It seems to have confirmed the rumor of smashing the plate . But then LFG Express , Will issue 15 US $billion loan , To help stabilize UST Price , And there are rumors that Jump、Alameda Wait for the company to provide 20 US $100 million rescue UST. Recommended reading 《 Turn on the death spiral or The stress test is over ?UST Can it be saved 》

   in my opinion ,UST This breakout is just a black swan event of the downward trend of the encryption market , It is far from a condition to promote the collapse of the whole market . As I said before , Bitcoin's downward trend began with 3 late , Largely due to changes in external macroeconomic policies : As central banks , In particular, the Fed raised interest rates , Global financial assets have entered a panic selling stage , Encrypted finance is difficult to do alone .

   To curb rising inflationary pressures , Central banks have tightened monetary policy , Raising interest rates has become the most important event in the global financial markets in the past few months , Among them, the Fed has paid the highest attention to raising interest rates .

   This year, 1 Since the monthly interest meeting , The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates continues to disturb the US stock market ;2 month , The U.S. Department of labor released the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) gen 40 Annual high , Increase external expectations of interest rate hike again ; However , until 3 Mid month , The boots finally landed .

  3 month 17 Japan , The Federal Reserve announced an increase in interest rates 25 BPS ( namely 0.25%), Raise the target range of the federal funds rate to 0.25%—0.5%, This is a 2018 The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since . More Than This , The Fed also revealed more radical measures , It is expected to raise interest rates at the six policy meetings this year , In order to increase efforts to slow down 40 The highest level of inflation in years , Besides 5 The reduction of 9 Trillion dollar balance sheet process .

   Worried that the Fed's measures to control inflation may lead to economic recession and liquidity crisis , In order to avoid risks, US stock investors began to sell off their financial assets , The three major stock indexes of US stocks have fallen sharply in the past few months : Dow from 36800 The historical high has fallen to the current 32120 spot , The biggest drop 12.7%; Na refers to... From the beginning of the year 15832 The point fell to the current 11688 spot , The biggest drop 26.1%; The s&p 500 The index is close to 5000 The high point fell to 3,988 spot , Fall through 4000 mark , The biggest drop 20.1%.

   especially 5 month 5 Japan , The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision again , Raise the benchmark interest rate 50 BPS to 0.75%-1.00% Section , by 2000 year 5 The biggest interest rate hike since January , At the same time 6 The reduction plan starting in January . This interest rate increase , It triggered a new round of panic selling , U.S. stocks hit a record 52 Zhou Xindi , The encryption market has also been affected .

   Over the past two years , Bitcoin and US stocks , Especially S & P 500 The relevance of . The root cause is , The implementation of quantitative easing policy under the epidemic situation , More traditional funds begin to pay attention to and invest in bitcoin , Treat it as an emerging asset class in order to gain asset appreciation , This has also contributed to the bull market in the encryption market in the past two years . However , With the global interest rate hike, monetary tightening , Traditional funds began to sell highly volatile assets , With good liquidity Crypto And U.S. stocks have become ‘ sacrifice ’, Co seismic , Both opened the falling market .

   actually ,Crypto Sell off , It is also verified in the data analysis on the chain . The data of Oko cloud chain shows that , since 5 Since the beginning of the month , Include Coinbase Many encryption platforms, including, continue to flow into large bitcoin , At present, the capital inflow of bitcoin exchange is a record 5 high ; According to the analysis platform on the chain  Santiment  The data of , A lot of Ethereum tokens are flowing into the exchange , In the past two weeks ,330000 ETH( Value is close to 8.25 Billion dollars ) Has been transferred to the cryptocurrency exchange wallet , The increase in inflows may indicate that reduced demand leads to increased selling pressure .

   In addition to the unstable macro environment of global financial markets , Cryptofinance itself has also entered the bottleneck of development , Stock funds are drained , Few incremental entrances .

  2021 year ,NFT The market is booming , Record trading volume . according to L‘Atelier The report ,2021 year NFT Sales reach 176 Billion dollars , The month on month growth is about 210 times ,NFT The number of buyers ranges from 7.5 Wan to 230 ten thousand . meanwhile ,NFT Trading also creates good profits for investors , Investors through NFT Reap profit 54 Billion dollars .

  NFT Continued high trading enthusiasm , It also continued into the second quarter of this year , The floor price of several blue chip projects has continuously hit a new high , And new projects emerge one after another , Continuously draw stock funds from the market . According to blockchain analysis company  Nansen  The data of , Since the beginning of April , The address of a professional investor is already in NFT Invested in 4864 ETH, And got it. 17581 ETH The return of , stay NFT Net profit from the transaction 12717 ETH.

   actually , It's not just NFT,GameFi、 Meta universe 、X To Earn And other new projects have sprung up , With all kinds of fake coins 、 Air currency has replaced a lot of value currency (BTC、ETH、 Stable currency ). In a bull market , This kind of play boosts the formation of foam , Everyone is making money ; In the bear market , The foam burst quickly , Eventually lead to the collapse of the whole market .

   3、 ... and 、 When to get out of the bear market ?

   The price of bitcoin has hit nearly 10 Month low , There is a big drop below ‘519’ Low trend . About the future trend of encryption Finance , At present, there are great differences of views in the market .

   Pessimists believe that , The encryption market has entered a bear market , The market may fall further .

   Blockchain analysis company  Glassnode  Recent research says , According to the Mayer multiplier (Meyer Multiple) Index analysis , At present, it is still in a bear market . This indicator shows that , It may have passed the initial stage of the late bear market , And has entered the second half of the bear market . However , According to the previous cycle , It also suggests that it may take some time , The market has not provided enough demand and price appreciation , To achieve sustainable profits and capital inflows .( notes : Mayer multiplier is one of the most well-known indicators of bitcoin , The index is price and 200 Simple ratio between daily moving averages , It provides a powerful and reliable indicator of long-term bottom and top formation for the bitcoin cycle .)

   Cryptocurrency investment platform based on algorithm Mudrex CEO  Edul Patel  Express , The rise in interest rates has caused individual and institutional investors to pause thinking about the prospects of the encryption market . He said :“ This downward trend is likely to continue in the next few days . Bitcoin may continue to test 3 $10000 level .”

   Cryptocurrency trading platform Luno Pte Vice president for development and international affairs  Vijay Ayyar  Express , The overall market is still under pressure from inflation and growth concerns , If bitcoin breaks through 30000 dollar , Fear of further falling to 25000 dollar , Then there will be any “ major ” rebound .

   without doubt ,3 Million dollars is the psychological gateway for many institutional investors and encryption investors , At the same time, it is also the bitcoin position cost line of many listed companies .Odaily Last year, planet daily counted the positions of eight listed companies (https://www.odaily.news/post/5168385), The average bitcoin holding cost is 26029 dollar , Compared with last year's market low 28800 Dollars are not far apart ; and 5 month 10 The price of bitcoin once fell below MicroStrategy Cost price (30700 dollar ) It also rebounded rapidly after , It also seems to indicate that the support of this point is strong .

   in addition , Considering that cryptofinance is affected by US stocks , The two may rebound at the same frequency in the future .Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz Forecast on the recent earnings conference call , The encryption market will continue to decline , He doesn't think encryption recovery will happen in the next two months . He added , Cryptocurrency will compete with NASDAQ 100 The index remains highly correlated , He said “ Very confident ”, Once the stock market finds “ Some kind of bottom ”, Bitcoin will rebound .

   that , When will U.S. stocks rebound in the end ? According to the Bank of America's latest report , In the past 140 The US stock market has experienced a total of 19 The second bear market , The average fall 37.3%, The average duration is 289 God . Although past performance does not fully represent future performance , But if we take historical performance as a reference , The Bank of America team calculated that , The current bear market will start this year 10 month 19 End of the day , Then S & P 500 The index will reach 3000 spot , The Nasdaq composite index will reach 10000 spot . One brought by Bank of America “ The good news ” yes , At present, many US stocks have fallen to the bear market area . In other words , Bitcoin and the whole crypto finance will be in the coming months , There may not be a big positive reversal .

   however , Optimists believe that the price of bitcoin has been seriously underestimated , The bear market is coming to an end .

   Encrypted asset management institution Amber In the latest analysis report, it is pointed out that :“ From the data analysis on the chain , Falling prices have caused some long-term holders to stop losses , And redistribute bitcoin to new buyers . Although we see realized losses dominate the market , But the current price is lower than 200 Daily moving average 80%, In the history of bitcoin trading, there are less than 15% At or below 200 Daily moving average 80% Price , This is a noteworthy indicator that bitcoin is currently undervalued .

   Ark Fund (ARK Invest) founder Cathie Wood( Sister wood ) Think , Express , There is a growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets , This shows that the bear market will soon end .“ Cryptocurrency as a new asset class , It shouldn't look like NASDAQ , But it does look like . It is now highly correlated . You know you're in a bear market , Maybe when everything starts to look similar , It's almost over , We are seeing the surrender of one market after another .”

   Despite the current market downturn , She still has long-term confidence in cryptocurrency , Because with ARK Like other investment categories in , She believes cryptocurrency will grow exponentially with the peak market and society . according to Wood That's what I'm saying , Blockchain is one of the industries that provide exponential growth opportunities , She thinks these industries ( Artificial intelligence and blockchain technology ) some time 7 To 8 The total valuation will increase during the year 21 times .

   analysts PlanB Tweet scale ,BTC The moon line RSI lower than 50, It indicates that the price may test in the short term 26000 dollar ; however , According to its 2019 year 3 Published in S2F Model ,PlanB Believe in BTC Prices will continue to grow in the coming years .

   Four 、BTC Forever ,Web3 Immortal

   In the past decade or so , Bitcoin has experienced more than one slump , Market panic is also expected , But eventually bitcoin survived tenaciously , So investors don't have to be overly pessimistic . What we should be thinking about , How to really Web3 Do big , Attract more incremental ( user 、 Money ) admission .

   From the perspective of bitcoin , Although the holder includes retail traders 、 High net worth traders 、 Some hedge funds and professional funds , But the basic plate is still not big enough . The proportion of listed companies equipped with bitcoin as asset reserve is very small compared with the whole traditional financial market , The asset volume is even less than 1%; Besides , Nor do sovereign wealth funds hold BTC. This means that when cryptocurrencies fall , There are not enough buyers to support the market . Only when the basic disk of bitcoin is large enough , To really resist risks .

   From the perspective of global market distribution ,Web3 In Europe 、 beautiful 、 The development of the Asian region is becoming more and more mature , In other underdeveloped areas, there is still a high development potential that can be tapped .

   Take Africa as an example , Due to the extreme lack of banking services , Cryptocurrency has become an important alternative to cross-border payment . data display ,2020 In, the African continent has developed into a cryptosystem P2P The second largest area of trading , Nigeria 、 Kenya and South Africa have become active areas of encrypted transactions in Africa ;2021 year , Africa continues to occupy a central position , The adoption rate of cryptocurrency has soared 1200%, Kenya has been in... For the second year in a row P2P Ranked first in the world in terms of transaction volume . The United States Insights Company reports show , The adoption rate of cryptocurrency among the bottom population in Africa is also the highest in the world .

   Although the spot market fell , But judging from the recent financing ,Web3 It is still an important track for institutions with heavy positions .The Block  Statistics display , The encryption industry 4 In a total of 244 Investment and financing transactions , Record high . Besides , Several new venture capital funds launched , Include Dragonfly Capital、Union Square Ventures and Framework Ventures New fund .

   To make a long story short , At a time when global financial markets are generally depressed ,Web3 Still the most dynamic industry , And it is also the most important air outlet in the next decade . As the slogan of old venture capital Sequoia Capital says , There will continue to be people ‘All in Crypto’.( Mars Finance )

editor : Zhang Jingdi

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