current position:Home>The data map on the chain dispels the heavy fog of BTC: compromise or persistence?

The data map on the chain dispels the heavy fog of BTC: compromise or persistence?

2022-05-15 04:31:05Sina Finance blockchain

   Bitcoin investors are on the brink of profitability , The short-term price trend may cause them to fall back into loss . meanwhile , With the constructive convergence of macro indicators , The picture of the bottom of the potential bear market is more clearly showing in front of us .

   In the face of inflationary pressure 、 Tightening monetary policy 、 Complex uncertainties and risks , Global markets continue to shrink . This week, , Stocks 、 The bond and crypto markets are noticeably weak , Bitcoin trading price fell to 37,614 dollar , Reached 4 New low in the month .

   Despite the decline in trading volume this week , But relatively speaking , At present, the bitcoin market is still surprisingly strong . Although S & P 500 The index and Nasdaq reached a new low of bearish trend , But bitcoin prices still fluctuate in the range , We still don't see the macro direction of bitcoin rising or falling . For all that , The correlation between bitcoin and traditional markets is still close to an all-time high , And people continue to use bitcoin as a risky asset , This view is still an important resistance to rising prices .

   A large proportion of bitcoin investors hold positions at a loss , They are potential followers of upward and downward currency prices . However , meanwhile , Many long-term macro indicators show that , Historically, the undervalued price level of bitcoin is playing a role , Reached a rare value beyond the late stage of the bear market . In this weekly report , We will explore the obvious difference between the drivers of bearish short-term price trend and the medium and long-term basic trend of bitcoin .

   The currency 2022 Trend chart of the 18th week of the year

   Looking to the edge of bitcoin profitability

   In recent weeks , We have discussed how a considerable portion of the bitcoin supply is redistributed and sold to 3.3 Wan to 4.2 The new owner of the $10000 price range . However , As the global market continues to decline , The risk of these new investors falling into floating losses continues to grow .

   at present , Whether it's the address 、 Entity or supply , The proportion of profits held is 70% Hovering around ( signify 30% It's a floating loss holding ). The last bear market low occurred in 2018-19 year , as well as 2020 year 3 month , At that time, the decline in market profitability was much more serious , Only 45% to 57% Your position is profitable .

   thus , We can build a case to further analyze ; If additional 10% Our market is suffering from floating losses ( The result is 60% Our market is profitable ), What's going to happen ? This gives us an example , The market is reaching a similar low as the previous cycle “ Pain threshold ” The price you need to reach before . This “60% Floating profit threshold ” It also explains the observable upward trend of these reserve prices over time ( Bitcoin lost in past cycles 、 Human factors such as hoarders ).

   Bitcoin supply , Income statement of entity and address

   With the help of URPD indicators , We can observe the price of the last move of the current bitcoin supply .

   As of this writing , Bitcoin is priced at 3.85 Thousands of dollars , The market needs to fall to 3.36 Thousands of dollars , To make another 190 Ten thousand bitcoins fell into floating losses (10% Supply of ). This will achieve our example “ Pain threshold ”, namely 60% Profit from the supply of , And make the past 16 Almost all buyers in the last month fell into a loss (2021 year 5 Month to 7 Buyers at monthly lows are the only exception ).

   Bitcoin position price allocation table

   The group most likely to sell bitcoin in panic is short-term holders (STH), We found that this group has accumulated a lot of bitcoin in the past three months . If we look at STH-MVRV ratio (Z-Score), We can observe the size of their unrealized profit margin .

   In the chart below , We can see the following :

  STH The basic cost of the chain is 46,910 dollar ,STH The average floating loss of bitcoin held is -17.9%.STH-MVRV The oscillator is now... Different from the average -0.75 A standard deviation , This shows that for STH For the group , This is a statistically significant financial distress index .STHs More serious profitability is not uncommon , But only during the worst sell-off in a bear market ( The oscillator is below the blue line ).

  STH-MVRV Ratio table

   Opposite the short-term holder , Long term holders (LTHs) Also selling chips , This is also a new high in the history of bitcoin , This trend seems to continue . This signal can be obtained from TXMC see :

  1. Long term holders react to prices ( Blue ): This indicator shows the average purchase price of all bitcoins in the long-term holder group , It is currently declining at the most significant rate in bitcoin history . This shows that 2021-22 Long term holders of annual cycles are selling , And redistribute their bitcoin , Especially in the past 3 Months is particularly obvious .

  2. Selling price of long-term holders ( Pink ): This indicator shows the average purchase price of bitcoin sold by long-term holders on the same day . This indicator is significantly higher this week , In line with the spot price , It also shows that long-term holders panic selling when they break even .

   These two indicators add important content to the following argument , namely :2021-22 Investors who recently joined the long-term holder group in are shipping , And fear that the currency price will fall further .

   Comparison between selling price of long-term holders and cost base

   Describe the selling characteristics of long-term holders

   We can further describe the characteristics of these long-term holders , And use various chain tools to narrow the typical currency age range of their positions . First , We will look back on Glassnode A new indicator being built in the engine room , The indicator shows two traces .

  1. oscillator ( gray ,30 Japan DMA indicators ) It shows how much of the bitcoin number sent by long-term holders to the trading platform is profitable . We can see , since 2021 year 9 Since the month , This indicator has fallen sharply , Now hovering in 60% about ( Added weight to our previous pain threshold estimation ).

  2. The price chart is colored according to the original profit margin relative to last year , Red indicates a high relative loss , green / The blue logo focuses on the relative profit .2014-15 year 、2018-19 Years and 2021-22 The bear market in is quite obvious , Long term holders have realized serious losses in many months .

   The only long-term holder who can achieve a loss and trigger this result is 2021-22 Long term holders with higher costs in the annual cycle , This shows that they are now dominant in the selling behavior of long-term holders .

   Profitability of foreign exchange inflows of long-term holders

   Let's take a look 1 More than years of revival supply , It captures 2021 year 5 All bitcoin chain transactions purchased before the sale in mid June . What we can see is , This indicator is actually declining , And close to the relative low . Usually , Very low readings of the supply of the recovery occurred in deep bears , under these circumstances , Accumulation is the preferred behavior of long-term holders .

   Bitcoin resumed supply and remained active 1 In the above (14 Days moving )

  Binary Coin-days Destroyed This observation is largely confirmed , The trend and obvious signs are almost the same as the recovery supply index . stay 7 On the daily average ( Hourly resolution ), Indicates that there are 18.5 The price of the coin broke in an hour 7 ma . let me put it another way , stay 89% In the time of , Long term holders choose to hold , There was no sell-off in the secondary market .

   These two indicators further support this view , At present LTH The seller's pressure is mainly caused by 155 Days and 12 Bitcoin owners between months ( also called 2021-22 Buyers in ) Driven .

  168 Hourly moving average data

   Fundamentals at the bottom of the bear market

   On chain tools can provide us with an assessment of current investor behavior ( Above, ), It can also provide basic valuation tools , Help us map and manage various market cycles .

   The figure below shows the realized profits ( green ) And losses ( Pink ) A variation of the , The calculation method is to divide the two by the realized market value . This effectively brings investors into / The dollar value brought out of the market is the same as the relative market size , It is convenient for us to compare each cycle . thus , We can roughly determine three market stages :

  1. bull market ( Green area ), There is enough demand flowing into , Investors can make huge profits , Go straight to the top of the market cycle ( Net capital inflow ).

  2. bear market ( Red area ), The opposite is true , Falling prices have led to investor losses being dominant ( Net capital outflow ).2019 year , It can also be said that 2021 end of the year , We observed a brief bullish rebound in which investors sold for profit .

  3. Return to the early bull market ( Orange area ) At this stage of doubt , The market shifted from sideways to up , It is a typical stage of re accumulation or doubt , The realized profits began to continue to exceed the losses .

   In the current market , We are still in a bear market , The market has not provided enough demand and price appreciation , To achieve sustainable profits and capital inflows . If realized profits start to consistently exceed losses , At the same time, the price is stable , This may indicate a transition to phase III .

  14 God EMA Index

  Mayer Multiple Is one of the most famous bitcoin indicators , It's also people's favorite indicator . This shock index is price and 200 Simple ratio between daily moving averages . Simple though it is , But it provides a powerful and reliable indicator of long-term bottom and top formation for the bitcoin cycle .

   ad locum , We have drawn a 0.8 Mayer multiplier of ( Green line ), As a historical “ underestimate ” level . The basis for adopting this multiple is , Less than 15% Bitcoin trading time is at or below this level , It provides us with a higher probability view . because 200 The bitcoin price of the daily average is 47,275 dollar , Its 20% Our discount price is now at 37,820 dollar .

   be relative to 0.8xMM The price of , The bear market bottom line of the historical cycle usually goes through two stages , First, in the early stages of the bear market (#1), Then determine the bottom of the second stage of the bear market again after the major downward event (#2). at present , The market is hovering in the price range at this critical stage , form 2021-22 Year bitcoin cycle No 2 Stage .

  Mayer Multiple indicators

   Reserve risk indicators provide another macro evidence of the bottom of the bear market , It's a shock indicator , When accumulating and hoarding money becomes the first choice , This indicator is seriously dragged down . historically , Reserve risk is in the late bear market ( Before the bottom is formed ) Once fell below 0.0025 Threshold ( green ), And reappeared in part of the subsequent bull market .

   This indicator shows that , We have passed the initial stage of the late bear market , May have entered the second half of the bear market . However , According to the previous cycle , It also suggests that it may take some time , Or currency prices continue to decline .

   Reserve risk

   In order to demonstrate the view that the hoarders are still unaffected , Value day destruction (VDD) Multiples fluctuate near relative lows . This shows that , Compared with last year , The value and range of bitcoin destroyed now are very small . This is binary (CDD) Index 、1 The risk indicators of supply and reserve for more than years provide a convergence point , That is, long-term investors ( hold 1 In the above ) Their main behavior is to hold money .

   According to this indicator , A bear market begins with 2021 year 5 About month , And close to the duration in the previous cycle .

   Value destruction multiplier

   Last , We will evaluate RVT ratio , It is the ratio of market value to online trading volume ( In dollars , And Application 28 Japan DMA Index ). This oscillator is NVT A slow rate , But variants with higher beliefs , It has the following characteristics :

   The upward trend and high value have been bear markets in history , Marks the volume of transactions ( And network utilization ) Relative to the valuation on the chain ( Overvalued ) Falling . The bottom of a bear market usually occurs in RVT value >30 when , And confirm by reversing to the downward trend . Downward trends and low values have historically been bull markets , On the contrary, it indicates that the network utilization is increasing relative to the valuation on the chain ( Undervalued ). A sustained sideways trend is a sign of relative balance , It usually indicates that the current market trend is sustainable .

   be relative to 2021 year 7 month , The oscillator has now reached a low high point , And is turning into a downward trend . If this trend is maintained , It indicates that there may be an influx of settlement volume on the chain , And the growth of network utilization . This has historically been conducive to price increases .

  RVT ratio

   Conclusion and conclusion

   Bitcoin's current market structure is still in an extremely delicate balance , Short term price actions and online profitability tend to be bearish , The long-term trend is still constructive . Shipments from long-term holders seem to continue , This week we added further evidence and Analysis .

   It remains to be seen whether macro forces and relevance to traditional markets will drag bitcoin down , However, many basic indicators have reached or close to the underestimation point , This is worth noting . From the technical analysis (Mayer Multiple) To bitcoin circulation vitality analysis ( Reserve risk ,VDD Multiple ), Even fundamental network health and utilization (RVT Ratio), There is constructive integration among many macro indicators .

   An unexpected important event , With the relative changes of bitcoin short-term and long-term trends , Whether it's down or up , Will make bitcoin one of the most attractive assets in the macroeconomic environment .

  ( Mars finance compiler )

editor : Zhang Jingdi

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