current position：Home>Blockchain game: unsustainable or is the future coming?
Blockchain game: unsustainable or is the future coming?
2022-02-03 18:01:38 【Gyro Finance】
writing / Yining
Produce / Gyro Research Institute
Axie infinity More than the total amount of transactions 30 Billion dollars , The peasant world NFT The total value once reached 18 One hundred million yuan , Game giant Ubisoft launched blockchain game platform Ubisoft Quartz, since this year on , With the meta universe and P2E Hot wave of , With its powerful narrative ability, blockchain has cut into the field of traditional games , Top VC 、 Well known giant enterprises have entered the Bureau , Burst out of great economic potential , It has aroused widespread concern in the society .
One side , The application of blockchain technology in games can effectively solve the problems of game transparency and separation of game asset ownership , It provides a new paradigm for the transformation of traditional games , But on the other hand , Chain tour's own investment attributes not only attract attention, but also breed capital market 、 A series of problems such as illegal fund-raising , Some people think that this is just a comeback of the encircling circle , In recent days , CCTV even criticized many well-known blockchain games by name , Leader Axie infinity And it's on the list .
that , What is a blockchain game ？ What is the current situation of its development ？
The birth of blockchain games ： The dual stimulation of market transformation and game pain points
game , It integrates education and culture , Carrying the high-level spiritual needs of human entertainment and relaxation . since 1952 In, the world's first electronic game tic tac toe appeared , Up to now , Video games have been around 70 Years of history , The diversity of its forms and carriers has gradually increased , It has gradually changed from the original arcade game , Host experience 、 Stand alone to the current situation dominated by end game and hand game , towards VR/AR Virtual reality games for terminals are evolving .
at present , The game industry has been in the middle and late stage of the mobile game era , Bonus period for incremental users has expired , Although in 2020 It rebounded under the influence of the epidemic in , But overall , The growth rate of the global game industry market is slowing down . according to Newzoo《2021 Global game market report 》, On the mainframe and PC The gradual shrinkage of the market , expect 2021 In, the global game market will reap from consumers 1758 $100 million in revenue , Year-on-year decline in 1.1%. Mobile games still dominate the game market , expect 2021 year , Mobile games will create 907 $100 million in revenue , Year-on-year growth 4.4%, Accounting for the revenue of the global game market 52%.
meanwhile , The game industry is highly focused , High market concentration , Tencent takes the lead , It is increasingly difficult for new tourists to break through , The competition is very fierce . according to Newzoo data display ,2020 year , Top of the world 100 Listed game companies created 1663 Hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue , Year-on-year growth 23%, Accounting for the total revenue of the global game market 94%, Increase over the same period 1%. Tencent holdings to 274 Billion dollars of game revenue ranked first .
From the inside of the game , Lack of transparency in the game industry 、 Game virtual property security problems occur frequently 、 Under the continuous strengthening of existing supervision and other factors , The industry has been in constant pain . Driven by the sudden increase of transformation pressure and the blood of existing industries , The voice of the new era of the game industry is constantly great , A new model 、 New play 、 New flow inlet is imminent .
But at this time , Blockchain , An integrated consensus mechanism 、 Intelligent contract 、 Distributed ledger of various key technologies such as asymmetric encryption mechanism , Its set transparency mechanism 、 Asset circulation reuse 、 Clear ownership and other advantages in one , Attracted the attention of the game industry .
To be specific , Traditional games are controlled by the central server , Players have poor information , Especially in terms of game props and assets , The rarity of game props is only disclosed by the server , There is the possibility of black box operation and rent-seeking . Blockchain games can achieve a more transparent game experience , Link with data through smart contract , Information acquisition can be synchronized with the central end , Comprehensively reduce information barriers , Players can participate in game design updates , And then create a fairer game mechanism .
meanwhile , In traditional games , Player data is controlled by the game platform , Low autonomy , The platform can even make differentiated targeted settings through different data , With the introduction of blockchain , Enter the chain through the player as the node , The ownership of game data is completely delegated to individuals , It can truly realize the freedom of rights and interests of personal game data .
Besides , Direct transfer of assets within the blockchain . Compared with the low security in the game world 、 Cumbersome asset outflows and transfers ,NFT The intervention of can directly endow the virtual assets in the game with real value attributes through asset tokenization , At the same time, it can be through token Conduct transaction flow , Promote the marketization of game assets . Under Marketization , User access NFT Create your personalized game equipment , And can be combined with dividend rights 、 Governance right linkage , Really convert the original user attributes into the creator role of the game , Further promote the development and improvement of game Ecology .
Last , The nature of blockchain games covers the meta universe property , It makes the industry excited , Under the dual stimulation of market transformation and game pain points , The enthusiasm of blockchain Games has risen rapidly . according to DappRadar data , By 2021 year 12 month 15 Japan , Accumulated in the whole network 1201 Game class Dapp Online deployment . from 2021 year 7 Since the month , Chain game data is growing rapidly , Players from 4 The beginning of the month 8 10000 people 12 More than one month 300 ten thousand people , Daily trading volume from 4 The beginning of the month 50 Million U.S. dollars, an increase to an average of about 2200 About $10000 .
Blockchain games are currently sought after , Whether it has really realized the fairness and transparency that people expect ？
The key to chain explosion ： Investment attributes and gold fever
In the original blockchain game , Mainly by Cryptokitties And other collection games occupy the main position , But with its continuous development , Now it is P2E The game is the core chain game 3.0 Time , That is to build a relatively complete game economic cycle to obtain benefits .
This year, , There is no doubt that is P2E The first year of the game ,Axie Infinity、Splinterlands 、Gods unchained And so on P2E Projects follow , according to BGA10 Monthly blockchain Game Report ,10 There are... On average every day in the month 120 m Unique Active Wallets Connect to blockchain games , About... Of blockchain industry activities 55%. among ,Axie Infinity It is also popular in the whole Southeast Asian market with its own strength , Driving the climax of playing and earning games , end 12 month 16 Japan , Its total transaction volume has exceeded 37.9 Billion dollars , The number of traders exceeds 113 ten thousand people , Its revenue in the third quarter of this year exceeded 7.8 Billion dollars , Its daily income is the highest, even reaching 4000 Thousands of dollars .
actually , The current hot blockchain game , The core is its investment attribute . Throughout all types P2E project , In order to build an economic cycle , The common way of playing is that players buy props or other items in advance NFT Carrier as a threshold to enter the game field , Obtain the native products released in the game through the operation in the game token, And players can token perhaps NFT Trading flow for profit .
meanwhile , The current popular chain tour generally has a short return cycle 、 It is easy to play and has many other characteristics , Under the stimulation of playing gold in the game , Players swarmed in , Investment institutions also favor this business model . according to an uncompleted statistic ,9 Since the month , Blockchain game financing has exceeded 21 Billion dollars , SoftBank 、 Sequoia China 、LD capital、 Many well-known wind investment bureaus such as Hillhouse .
Besides , Driven by the gold fever , Gold making studio, a collective derivative organization serving blockchain games 、 The chain tour guild is also booming , Such as YGG、BlackPool And other well-known chain tour community organizations , Most guilds can provide necessary conditions for players who do not have the threshold conditions of chain tour , And provide professional training for initial players , The mode of sharing from the final income obtained by players to promote the development of game Ecology . According to the new data of the chain , Since this year, 7 Since the month , Yes 20 The game guild appeared in the media , among 10 The company announced that it had obtained financing , The main market of these chain tour associations that announced to obtain financing is Southeast Asia , The total amount of financing exceeds 2 Billion dollars .
Chain travel trap ？ Economic model and compliance need to be considered
It can be seen that , Although chain travel is developing rapidly , But few people really regard it as game entertainment , It exists more as a financial investment , Profit from it through early cost and investment time , So whether this profit method is established ？
actually , When the user base is limited , most P2E The economic system of chain travel is highly dependent on the growth of new user traffic from the outside world . Famous games Axie Infinity Take an example for analysis , The following is a Axie The economic model of , The green line indicates the value flow , The yellow line indicates value creation . In its economic model , Players buy Axie NFT Enter the game , And it needs to be through consumption token SLP and AXS Conduct Axie Reproduction , The key to players' profit is through Axie Battle acquisition SLP and AXS Reproduction Axie Make a deal , At the same time, it can also pass token Own secondary market premium trading and token Profit from pledge .
It can be seen that ,Axie NFT And native token The cycle of is the key to the economic closed loop . From the beginning to the peak of game development , The growth of users can directly promote the continuous economic development . But with the continuous influx of users , The economy will enter a period of overheating , As a threshold Axie Market prices will rise , The marginal rate of return keeps decreasing , The reduction of yield will directly stimulate the growth of users , With the decline in the entry rate of new users , It's original token Demand for will also decline , If the original circulation in the market token The supply has not changed in time , Whether it's a pledge or token Price , Will also be reduced , The price reduction will further drive the return of users and trigger a spiral .
In essence , In the white paper of the game , Corresponding countermeasures have also been taken , In his opinion , if Axie There's a decline in demand for , With the user's exit , Its market price will gradually recover . Objectively , If the game economy has a huge user base , That is, when there is massive domestic demand , This stage will be similar to the Merrill Lynch clock from recession to recovery . In reality , At present, most gamers just want to invest in the game , Limited game volume ,Axie The decline in the marginal rate of return on investment will be much greater than the rise in marginal demand , And in the market SLP Supply exceeds demand , If you look at this game as a closed economic system ,SLP and AXS Is the currency of the economy , Sell Axie As an export , Reproduction is considered an investment , Pledge is savings , In the secondary market token Trading is regarded as foreign exchange trading , The economy is a highly export-oriented economy with free flow of factors , If we do not adopt deflation or increase internal consumption , At this time, you may be in “ Stagflation ” The state of .
Even though Axie We are also avoiding possible risks in various ways , For example, using SLP Combustion mechanism 、Land Continuously optimize system settings, such as game development , But according to Naavik researcher Lars Doucet Written report , end 11 Mid month ,Axie Infinity The daily income of ordinary players has fallen below the minimum wage in the Philippines .
In addition to the economic system, it is still in the development stage , The most remarkable thing is , Under the temptation of economic interests , Many imitation discs are also competing to launch . Most of these imitations have no economic logic 、 No official endorsement and technical team , Insufficient depth of funds , For the purpose of looting the capital market , In recent months , There have been multiple imitation disks of this kind ,11 month 16 Less than half a month after the hero of the daily chain youqian'an went online, it has collapsed , Guild and individual players lose a lot , But in recent days, , Chain Tour Project CryptoMines The price fell more than... In three days 90%.
in fact , From the above profit model, we can also see , Chain travel is actually quite close to the mobile mining nature in encryption , According to the insiders , In the context of China's severe crackdown on the field of encryption , Be close to 70% Former practitioners in the cryptocurrency field began to step into the chain game or chain game guild .
Whether blockchain games are unsustainable ？
From the game itself , The introduction of blockchain enhances the transparency of the game 、 Fairness and security , Give players an emerging experience as co builders , meanwhile , With VR、 Cloud computing 、 The continuous development of new generation information technology such as data twin , Blockchain game as the key entry point of metauniverse , Not only give traditional games a new traffic entry , It also brings a broad space for transformation , It has great potential .
But in terms of development , Blockchain games are still in the early and medium stages of development , In terms of Technology , Consensus mechanism involving blockchain efficiency and security 、 Privacy computing 、 Technologies such as smart contracts still need to be broken through . In terms of infrastructure , The current blockchain games are mostly in Ethereum 、WAX and BSC Load on equal common chain , Especially Ethereum ,DappRadar Statistics display , There are about 44% Your chain tour runs on Ethereum . However, the congestion of Ethereum has greatly hindered the development of chain tour , This also leads the blockchain game to Layer2 And other public chain overflow , For example, the current concern Solana Dozens of chain tour projects have been incubated , But overall , The infrastructure of blockchain games is still mostly composed of existing mainstream public chains , Diversification is still insufficient . And in terms of application , At present, the game form is still relatively single , The effect of game design is rough , Still staying at the initial stage PVP And strategy games , Not very interesting , What's more , Some games can be compared to work , In the long term , Application of foam deposition , It will greatly affect the development of blockchain games .
Besides , Regulation will also be the issue that blockchain games need to face . In our country , The cryptocurrency involved in blockchain games is expressly prohibited , Although many chain games now evade supervision in the form of edge ball , However, to really participate in blockchain games in China will still face risks .
But the optimistic thing is , The game industry has begun to experience more smoothly 、 More subtle visual effects 、 Users have made positive attempts in autonomous social networking and other aspects , With the yuan universe 、 Integral form 、 Social games 、UGC Innovation and development of content platforms and other categories , The type of game will also be RPG、RTS、AVG And other directions ,3A The chain tour of level compliance may also be just around the corner .
in the final analysis , The current chain tour is just to join NFT Relationship with pass economy 4399 Little games , Whether the game developed solely for making money is still a game , Is there any suspicion of putting the cart before the horse ,play to earn still earn to play？ Maybe in the future , When play to earn and play to fun When you can take care of both , Blockchain games can achieve sustainable development in a real sense .
Blockchain blue ocean ： Analyze blockchain games and GameFi Development history of
Chain NEW ： Chain travel financing in two months 14 Billion dollars , Jack ma, 、 Sequoia China entry
Chain NEW ： Someone hurried into the game , There is a reward of millions for catching ghosts
Chain NEW ： Capital is popular with the chain tour Union ： The previous day's monthly salary 7000, Ten million investment in the next second
Newzoo：2021 Global game market report
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