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Bloomberg 2022 encryption Outlook: the "fate" of bitcoin, Ethereum and encrypted dollar
2022-02-03 04:58:44 【Odaily_】
Bitcoin and Ethereum will be adopted more widely in the market and overcome the problem of market fluctuation .
This article is from Bloomberg Intelligence, Original author ：BI Senior commodity analyst Mike McGlone
translator | Moni
Produce | Odaily Star daily （ID：o-daily）
In encrypted dollars and non homogenous tokens (NFT) Stimulated by the diffusion of revolutionary technology , We expect the United States to 2022 Fully accept cryptocurrency and introduce appropriate supervision in , These will have some impact on the price rise . It should be noted that , The word "stable currency" may cause misunderstanding , Because most stable currencies are actually pegged to the dollar , So we think it may be more appropriate to call it cryptodollar . Due to the quantitative easing policy, the US dollar money supply has increased significantly , Therefore, the price of cryptocurrency should continue to rise , In particular, bitcoin and Ethereum, the two cryptocurrencies with limited supply . that , What on earth might trip a moving 「 The Three Musketeers: One for All! 」—— The currency 、 Ethereum and crypto dollars ？ This may be 2022 An issue that needs more in-depth discussion in , But we expect , Bitcoin and Ethereum will gain wider market adoption and overcome most market fluctuations （ such as 2021 In, the encryption market appeared close to 50% The callback ） problem . Besides , Stock market returns tend to normalize 、 And the continued decline in US Treasury yields may also affect bitcoin and Ethereum .
The currency 、 Bonds and the Federal Reserve
The currency 、 The etheric fang 、 Cryptocurrency 、 The Federal Reserve and 2022 Deflationary forces in . The Fed may reassess its quantitative easing strategy , The decline in bond yields may indicate 2022 The macroeconomic environment in is conducive to the two head cryptocurrencies bitcoin and Ethereum . stay 2021 At the end of the year , Crypto assets and stocks show different intensities , This may indicate 2022 Digital assets will continue to perform well in .
Does bitcoin expect the fed to end the currency game ？ Some people think that 2022 In, the Fed will still not adopt monetary tightening policy , This is because they are worried that the stock market will fall , Compared with the special currency , This situation may be a positive . As the benchmark of cryptocurrency industry , Bitcoin is becoming a digital value store , But it should be noted that , Bitcoin is still in price discovery mode , So it's still a risky asset . If the stock market falls , Bitcoin is bound to face growth resistance , But with falling share prices putting pressure on bond yields and encouraging more central bank liquidity , Cryptocurrency may be the main beneficiary .
Our chart depicts 2022 Future pricing of one-year federal funds , The foundation is expected to have higher interest rates . in fact , The Fed's attempt to sustain the tightening cycle has failed , Especially since 2015 Since the annual interest rate hike , It shows that the United States is bound to follow Japan and Europe towards negative yields .
Will the Fed's contraction be a dream ？ Bitcoin may tell you the answer
Bond yields go against the consensus of decline . Although it is generally believed that long-term bond yields on US Treasuries are higher , But in fact, the index can not be maintained at 2% above , This figure may be beneficial to bitcoin in 2022 In, it became the main asset in the deflationary environment . The yield of us long-term bonds is 2020 year 2 It fell below... For the first time in June 2% Threshold , The main reason was the outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. , It also leads to most risky assets in 3 The month followed by a sharp decline . Our chart depicts that US yields may follow Japan and Europe into a negative region , This means that the upcoming digital reserve assets may be the most prominent beneficiaries .
Due to lower Treasury yields , Bitcoin may be the main beneficiary
Funds in the market have shifted from gold to bitcoin and Ethereum , about 2022 For the year , The problem focuses on the reversal or acceleration of liquidity . As bond yields fall , We prefer cryptocurrencies to be more liquid .
Compared with the stock market , Does cryptocurrency have any advantages ？ Different strength from the stock market and 2021 The basis for the sharp decline in may be 2022 In, the further appreciation of cryptocurrency asset prices laid the foundation .2022 The market may have a comparative advantage in . Our chart depicts that although S & P 500 The index is 11 There was a decline at the end of the month , but Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index Still rising . It should be noted that , Encryption is still a risky asset , But the main assets —— Bitcoin and Ethereum —— May be moving to value storage .
Supply reduction is a key attribute shared by bitcoin and Ethereum . Whether it's the early adopters of these two cryptocurrencies , Or someone who recently moved to their own portfolio , It should be noted that although digital assets may have an advantage over the expanded stock market , However, there is a risk of fluctuation , Especially when the Fed reduces liquidity .
Different intensities of encrypted assets and stock market
Encrypted dollars 、 The currency 、 The etheric fang
Who is the 2022 Year of 「 The Three Musketeers: One for All! 」? answer ： Encrypted dollars 、 Ethereum and bitcoin . Encrypted dollars represent a better way to trade 、 A stronger ecosystem 、 And an asset class that will continue to exist , It is the most important part of the digital currency revolution , It's also the third leg of the encryption stool . The other two “ Musketeers ”—— Bitcoin and Ethereum —— The performance in the bull market looks as long as the stable currency tracking the dollar .
2022 Bitcoin of 、 Ethereum and crypto dollars . Past performance does not predict future results , But when a new asset class outperforms existing assets , There seems to be little reason to refute , You seem to have only one choice —— To follow up . We think , In this case 2022 It is expected to play a major role in , Because if the fund manager continues to own encrypted assets , Because if the encrypted asset is not configured in the portfolio , Instead, they may face greater risks . According to our chart data ,Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) since 2019 It has risen by about... Since the end of the year 1,200%, And standard & Poor's 500 The index rose close to 90%. Such a good performance is usually accompanied by fluctuations , It is worth noting that ,BGCI stay 2021 It fell by nearly 60%, But this situation may be 2022 Lay the foundation for further appreciation in .
Crypto dollar proliferation and rising BGCI Index
stay BGCI In the asset allocation of the index ,80% It's bitcoin and Ethereum , So we expect to 2022 The cryptocurrency market trend will be further stabilized in , There may even be a surge , Follow up our chart data shows , The market value of cryptodollar has risen to 1300 Over US $100 million .
The dollar has always dominated cryptocurrencies . And about 15,000 Compared with cryptocurrencies competing for speculative leadership , Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to continue to maintain a leading position in the encryption ecosystem .BNB、SOL and ADA Has replaced a year ago XRP、BCH and LINK Close to the head . Our chart depicts the rising trajectory of cryptodollar market value and bitcoin and Ethereum , In our view , There is still a lot of speculation about changes in the field of encryption , As the firewood Dog Coin and Dog Coin Show , But in the top three positions , There shouldn't be much change .
The encrypted dollar will continue to maintain a bull market
Ethereum's market value as a percentage of encryption market value has been rising , From a year ago 10% Up to 20% about , This is because most encrypted dollars run on the Ethereum platform .
Head digital asset bull market ： Encrypted dollars . The encrypted dollar attribute mainly includes real-time settlement and round the clock transaction 、 Transfer dollars 、 And earn much more than the euro / US dollar interest , In this regard , Encrypting dollars will have a huge impact on digital assets such as Ethereum , It also boosted the dollar and affected most other financial assets . In a rapidly digital world , Trading through digital tokens may be the general trend . Our chart will be the top five encrypted dollars （Tether No. 1 ） The market value of is compared with bitcoin and Ethereum . according to Coinmarketcap The data of ,Tether The transaction volume of is usually more than the total transaction volume of bitcoin and Ethereum , Don't forget to ,Tether In fact, it is also an Ethereum token .
since 2019 The change trend of encryption market value since the end of the year
Fluctuations in the encryption market are expected , After all, the emergence of central bank digital currency has happened organically , But from the data , The encryption market has shifted to the dollar .
Bitcoin bull market
Whether bitcoin is already 2021 A new bull market opened in ？ An updated trend . We are about to enter 2022 year , The key problem facing bitcoin now is , Has bitcoin reached its peak or is it just a solid bull market . We believe it is the latter , And in such a market environment , Bitcoin is moving towards becoming a global digital collateral .2022 year , The key support of bitcoin may be 50,000 About $ , Resistance level at 100,000 About $ .
2022 The price range of bitcoin in may be 40,000 USD to 70,000 dollar . As we can see , Bitcoin in 2021 In, about 50% , But the fundamentals are still good , And it could be 2022 Prices rose again in . China has completely banned cryptocurrency , But energy consumption has improved the fundamentals of bitcoin , stay 7 This is evidenced by the rapid rise in prices after reaching the bottom in January . Now most mining operations have been transferred to the United States and Canada , The energy use of the world's largest decentralized network shows that bitcoin still has great power . Our chart depicts from 7 Month low 30,000 The new bull market seen since the dollar was around .
Bitcoin in 2021 The problem of speculative surplus in has been eliminated
The support of bitcoin should be 40,000 About $ —— Slightly lower than 20 Weekly moving average , At the top of the trend channel , We find that the initial resistance level is about 70,000 Dollar position .
Bitcoin will be in 2022 reach 100,000 US dollars ? Bitcoin seems to be walking in 100,000 On the track of the dollar . We think it should only be a matter of time , Because it has an economic foundation , First, the market demand increases , Second, the supply of bitcoin . There are many examples of , In the process of being adopted by the mainstream , Bitcoin will be in 2022 Continue to move forward in . The United States 、 Canada and Europe have launched bitcoin exchange traded funds and futures , El Salvador identified bitcoin as legal tender , All these indicate that the global adoption of bitcoin will be improved . Our chart depicts the decline of bitcoin supply and the rise of price and volatility , Overall, the market performance is still relatively mild .
As adoption increases and supply decreases , Bitcoin is still bullish
If an asset matures , Then it is normal for volatility to decline , That's what we think of bitcoin . At present, the annual volatility of bitcoin is slightly lower than 80%, This is the case with 2018 The years are about the same , But now bitcoin is cheaper than 2018 Years are much higher , This shows that the mainstream is embracing bitcoin .
Bitcoin may not be limited to playing the role of the golden digital version . If evaluated according to the traditional model , The potential development path of bitcoin price may be stable at the price of gold per ounce 100 About times , And the volatility will be lower and lower . According to our chart data , Compared to the price of gold , Bitcoin prices continue to rise , The currency of the 260 The sky wave rate has reached 2021 The lowest level since the beginning of the year . stay 2016 end of the year , The currency of the 260 The sky wave rate, a measure of relative risk, fell to the bottom , after 2017 There was a bull market in , and 2020 Years and 2016 There is a similarity between the years , It's a year when the supply of bitcoin is halved , It's just 2021 year , Bitcoin has set a new record high .
The price of bitcoin may stabilize at the price of gold per ounce 100 About times
We think , Compared with gold , The fundamental support of bitcoin remains on the appreciation path .
A consolidated 、 Mature bitcoin bull market . stay 2022 At the turn of the year , We saw a pause 、 The revised and updated bitcoin bull market is how we see bitcoin approaching 2022 year . With the increase of depth and adoption , In the long run , The volatility of bitcoin will decline , And the price will rise .2021 Beginning of the year , Bitcoin has set a milestone ： Unlike most major asset classes （ S & P in particular 500 Index ） comparison , The currency 260 Day volatility fell to its lowest level ever .2021 year , The price of bitcoin has risen by about 100%, The average price of bitcoin this year is slightly lower than 5 Around ten thousand dollars .
2021 In the first 4 Bitcoin in the quarter and the fourth quarter 1 No change from quarter to quarter
In the second quarter of this year , Bitcoin fell by about 50%, But it actually helps consolidate the fundamentals , We think , stay 2022 year , Compared with maintaining at 50,000 Below US dollar , Bitcoin breakthrough 100,000 The potential of the dollar is greater .
Ethereum bull market
What might happen in 2022 Stop the Ethereum bull market in ？ The answer may be unexpected ： Higher prices . at present , The market demand is increasing , Supply is falling , The central position of Ethereum in the field of Finance and currency digitization is the basis for its further price appreciation . Ethereum has always been 2021 The best performing major encryption assets in , It fell about in the first half of the year 60% after ,ETH Start to turn cattle in the second half of the year .
The price range of Ethereum bull market may be 4000-5000 Between US dollars . Get into 2022 year , Ethereum may have two trends ： Increased adoption and decreased supply .2021 year , Ethereum has withstood significant adjustments , The key question now is how long it may take for Ethereum prices to come back . According to our analysis , There may be a new bull market in Ethereum , Of course , The analysis is based on Ethereum falling to 7 Against the backdrop of monthly lows , It was finally established 4,000 The dollar should be a key resistance level for Ethereum , and 2,000 The dollar is the key support .
You'll find that , The future resistance level is the current support level ,4,000 The dollar could become 2022 The key fulcrum of the year .
There is no reason to complicate the bull market
Ethereum is still NFT And the preferred platform for encrypting dollars , This situation is already 2021 Show and play around , We expect 2022 Based on this, we will successfully breed greater market competition . Of course , We've all seen a lot of people who call “ Ethereum killer ” The cryptocurrency of , But in the end, it still failed to shake the position of Ethereum .
Who is bitcoin ETF The biggest beneficiary of ？ answer ： The etheric fang . Since the United States launched the first exchange traded fund to track bitcoin , Ethereum's performance is getting better and better , This fact may indicate that Ethereum's bull market will last longer .10 month 19 Japan .Proshares Bitcoin strategy ETF (BITO) Officially launched , Ethereum rose about... That day 20%, Bitcoin fell by about 8%. Ethereum seems to be in the early stages of becoming Internet collateral , Besides , Ethereum is also becoming DeFi、 Financial technology and NFT Building the center of the platform .
Bitcoin launched from the United States ETF The performance of Ethereum since
2021 year , Ethereum protocol has changed （EIP-1559）, In this context ,ETH The supply began to decrease . after , Therefore, the trading volume and open positions of Zhishang TaiFang futures contract increased , If we regard it as an indicator , So the regulator approves Ethereum based on futures ETF It should only be a matter of time .
encryption 、DeFi And the rise of Ethereum . Leading the way in digitalization 、 Tokenization 、DeFi、 Financial technology and NFT In terms of waves , Ethereum is always in the leading position . According to our chart analysis , The price of Ethereum is the same as that from Coinmarketcap The total market value of encrypted assets remains roughly parallel . majority NFT All priced in Ethereum , This means that with NFT The ecosystem is expanding , The market is right ETH There will be more demand for . Bitcoin is gradually becoming a global digital reserve asset , Ethereum is being used as collateral for the Internet . At present, the most widely traded encrypted assets （Tether） That is, encrypted dollars and Ethereum tokens , And now the most popular game of making money while playing Axie Infinity It also runs on the Ethereum network .
The etheric fang – Encryption platform 、 Internet collateral
Ethereum has won depth and dominance . The success of Ethereum will stimulate market competition , Then there are more potential Ethereum killers , But we see , Ethereum can cope well with market adjustment , And continue to maintain its market leadership .
Ethereum supply may enter a free fall state . There may be many problems in Ethereum upgrade , however , Ethereum's incremental supply began to decline , It means that Ethereum will become more mature —— If the rules of economics apply —— This situation is obviously beneficial to the rise of Ethereum price . The following figure depicts Ethereum EIP-1559 After implementation , from 8 At the beginning of the month, the supply began to decrease , and ETH The rate of destruction is becoming faster and faster , Comparison between the number of new Ethereum tokens and the total amount outstanding 52 The weekly rate of change is expected to fall to... For the first time 4% following . Although the market demand for Ethereum is not so direct , But eventually its supply may be lower than bitcoin .
The supply trend is conducive to the rise of Ethereum price
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