Bloomberg 2022 encryption Outlook: the United States may accept cryptocurrency next year

source ： Bloomberg intelligence （Bloomberg Intelligence）

compile ：Corn

primary coverage ：

1、 The currency 、 The etheric fang 、 Cryptocurrency 、 The Federal Reserve and 2022 The power of deflation in

2、2022 Three cryptocurrency backbones ？ dollar 、 The etheric fang 、 The currency

3、 Whether bitcoin is 2021 A new bull market opened in ？ Updated trends

4、2022 year , What might stop Ethereum's bull market ？ Higher prices

Inspired by China's ban and stable currency （ Most of them are centralized stable coins ） and NFT And the proliferation of revolutionary technologies , With proper regulation and the impact of related bullish prices , We expect the United States to 2022 Accept cryptocurrency in . Stable currency It may be wrong naming , Because most of them are anchored to the dollar . The unlimited supply of fiat money should keep prices up , Especially the limited supply of bitcoin and Ethereum .

about 2022 year , Perhaps the more profound problem is , Block bitcoin 、 What are the factors that make Ethereum and money stable ？ However, we expect to overcome most of the volatile factors through wider adoption , for example 2021 Approaching year 50% Amendment . With the normalization of stock market returns and the continued decline of the US economy , Bitcoin and Ethereum in the US Treasury yield portfolio may shine .

The currency 、 Bonds and the Federal Reserve

The currency 、 The etheric fang 、 Cryptocurrency 、 The Federal Reserve and 2022： The power of deflation

The Fed has renewed its push to eliminate pressure , The decline in bond yields may indicate 2022 The macroeconomic environment in is conducive to the top cryptocurrency —— Bitcoin and The etheric fang . To 2021 end of the year , Crypto assets and stocks show different intensities , This may indicate 2022 The performance of digital assets will continue to be excellent in .

Figure 1 ： Is it a dream for the fed to tighten policy ? Bitcoin may present the answer

Whether bitcoin expects the fed to end the game ？

Reverse the fed in 2022 The main force behind the expected tightening in is the decline in the stock market , This may be a win-win for bitcoin . Cryptocurrency as a benchmark , It is moving towards digital value storage , However, it is still in the price discovery mode , It is a risky asset , Has been rising with the tide of equity . If the stock market falls , Bitcoin will face initial resistance , But to a certain extent , Falling share prices put pressure on bond yields and stimulated the central bank to increase liquidity , Cryptocurrency may be the main beneficiary . Figure 1 depicts federal funds in... During a year 2022 The expectation of raising interest rates in . The Fed's attempt to maintain the tightening cycle failed , Especially since 2015 Since the annual interest rate hike , This fact shows that the United States will move towards negative yields after Japan and Europe .

The general decline in bond yields is related to bitcoin

Although it is generally believed that the yield is higher , But US Treasury bonds and long-term bonds still cannot be maintained at 2% above , This may be a major indicator , Indicates that 2022 The transition to a more deflationary environment in was favorable for the bitcoin .2020 year 2 month , Long term bonds fell below... For the first time 2% Threshold , Showing the severity of the pandemic . Most risky assets are in 3 The month followed . Figure 2 shows , U.S. Treasury yields may follow in the footsteps of Japanese and European Treasury yields , Enter the negative range . The upcoming digital reserve assets may be the most prominent beneficiaries .

Figure 2 ： Bitcoin may be the main beneficiary of low returns

Funds have shifted from traditional analog gold to bitcoin and Ethereum .2022 The main problem in is the exchange or acceleration of these capital flows . As bond yields fall , We prefer funds to The currency And etheric fang .

Does cryptocurrency have an advantage over the stock market ?

2021 The different intensity of the year compared with the stock market and the support of the sharp decline , These may be 2022 In, the further appreciation of cryptocurrency asset prices laid the foundation . since 2020 Since the crash in , The overall stock market has never appeared 10% The callback , by comparison , The cryptocurrency market is 2022 May have a comparative advantage in . Figure 3 shows , Although S & P 500 The index is 11 Fall at the end of the month , But the Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index is still recovering . Cryptocurrency is a risky asset , But its core —— Bitcoin and Ethereum , They may be transitioning to value storage .

Reducing supply is a key attribute shared by the two cryptocurrencies . In the period of early adoption and migration to the portfolio , Digital assets may have an advantage over the expanded stock market , However, there is a risk of fluctuation , Especially when the Fed reduces liquidity .

Figure 3 ： Different intensities of encrypted assets and stock market

dollar 、 The currency 、 The etheric fang

2022 Three encryption backbones —— dollar 、 The etheric fang 、 The currency

Cryptocurrency represents a better way to trade 、 A stronger ecosystem and an asset class that will continue to exist , Crypto dollar is the most important part of the digital currency revolution , It is also the backbone of encryption . The bull markets of bitcoin and Ethereum look as persistent as the rising market value of the stable currency anchored to the dollar .

2022 Bitcoin of 、 Ethereum and stable coin

Past performance does not predict future results , But when new asset classes outperform existing assets , Opponents have no choice , You can only join . We think this process is 2022 The year will play a major role , Because if the fund manager continues not to allocate the cryptocurrency Portfolio , Then they will face greater risks . Figure 4 shows , since 2019 Since the end of , The Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index (BGCI) Increased by about 1200%, And standard & Poor's 500 The index increased by nearly 90%. Such excellent performance is usually accompanied by volatility ,2021 year BGCI near 60% The decline may be 2022 It laid the foundation for further appreciation in .

Figure 4 ： Encryption dollar diffusion and promotion BGCI

BGCI yes 80% Bitcoin and Ethereum . We expect ,2021 A stable trend for the year will be in 2022 Annual acceleration , That is the spread of stable currency . Chart display , The market value of the stabilization currency has exceeded 1300 Billion dollars .

The dollar dominates cryptocurrencies

And about 15000 Compared with competitors competing for speculative leadership , The strong stable currency lianyute and Ethereum are expected to remain in the leading position of the ecosystem .Binance Coin、Solana and Cardano It has replaced the near top... A year ago XRP、Bitcoin Cash and Chainlink. Figure 5 depicts the rising trajectory of cryptodollar market value and bitcoin and Ethereum . In our view , There is a lot of speculation in this field , just as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin As indicated , But the top three should continue to maintain their position ： Stay dominant .

Figure 5 ： Cryptocurrency bull market

Ethereum's percentage of the total has been rising , Especially from... A year ago 10% It's up to 20% about . Most stable coins run on the Ethereum platform .

Digital asset bull market ： Stable currency

can 24 Hours for dollar trading and delivery and instant settlement , And earn much higher interest than the European dollar , This is the property of stable currency , It also has an impact on digital assets such as Ethereum . This perked up the dollar , And affected most financial assets . In a rapidly digital world , The shift to trading through digital currencies can be unstoppable . Figure 6 shows the top five stable coins （Tether No. 1 ） The market value of is compared with bitcoin and Ethereum . according to Coinmarketcap The data of ,Tether The transaction volume of is usually more than the total transaction volume of bitcoin and Ethereum .

Figure 6 ：2019 Changes in market value since the end of the year

The bumps on the road are predictable , But the emergence of central bank digital currency has made natural progress , And the world is chasing dollars .

Bitcoin bull market

Whether bitcoin is 2021 A new bull market opened in ？ An updated trend

near 2022 year , The key problem facing bitcoin is , Has it reached its peak or is it just in a solid bull market . We think it's the latter , And see that benchmark encryption is developing towards becoming a global digital collateral .2022 The key support level in may be 5 Around ten thousand dollars , Resistance level at 10 Around ten thousand dollars .

The currency of the 2022 At the beginning of the year ：4 ten thousand -7 Thousands of dollars

As we can see , Bitcoin in 2021 The annual amendment is about 50% The reason is that the fundamentals are bullish , And possibly in 2022 Consolidate rising prices in . Overcome China's ban on cryptocurrency mining and energy consumption, and improve the basis of the benchmark index , Its price comes from 7 The rebound since the end of the month proves this . Most mining operations have moved to safer places in the United States and Canada , The energy use of the world's largest decentralized network shows its strength . Figure 7 depicts the new bull market we see , Especially since 7 Monthly low of about 3 The bull market since $10000 .

Figure 7 ： Bitcoin in 2021 The fall in eliminated excessive speculation

Good support is in 4 Around ten thousand dollars , Slightly lower than 7 Since 20 Weekly moving average and trend line .7 About US $10000 is the initial resistance level and... At the upper end of the trend channel 20 The distance above the weekly mean .

Bitcoin is expected to be in 2022 reach 10 Ten thousand dollars ?

The price of bitcoin seems to be 10 On the $10000 track , We think it's more a matter of time , Especially considering the economic basis of increasing demand and decreasing supply . There are numerous examples of , Bitcoin in 2022 The process adopted by the mainstream in will continue . The United States 、 Exchange traded funds in Canada and Europe （ETF） And Futures 、 Migrate to 60/40 The combination of and El Salvador's fiat currency status herald a bull market in the global market . Figure 8 depicts the decline in the supply of bitcoin and the rise in prices, as well as the seemingly mild volatility .

Figure 8 ： The popularity and supply of bitcoin have declined

It is normal to expect the volatility of mature assets to decline , This is our view of the benchmark cryptocurrency . The annualized volatility is slightly lower than 80%, Looks like it's with 2018 The years are about the same , But the price is much higher , This shows the migration of the mainstream .

Bitcoin may not be just a digital version of gold

If the past pattern repeats , The potential path for bitcoin prices is to stabilize at an ounce of gold 100 About times , And volatility returns to its downward trajectory . Figure 9 illustrates a good reason why cryptocurrency prices remain rising relative to metals , Because bitcoin 260 The daily volatility is 2021 After reaching an all-time low at the beginning of the year, there was an early recovery . stay 2016 end of the year , This relative risk indicator forms a similar bottom , Because the ratio of bitcoin to gold is 2017 Break through at the end of the year 1 Double resistance , achieve 10 times . The supply is reduced （ halve ） yes 2020 Year and 2016 Another factor of the same year .

Figure nine ： Bitcoin and gold 100 Times as much as —— Volatility

We think , Some unexpected factors will hinder this technical index , This is the basis for bitcoin to maintain its appreciation path relative to gold .

A consolidated 、 Mature bitcoin bull market

We think bitcoin will be in 2022 The year ushered in a pause 、 Corrected and revitalized bull market . Figure 10 shows the benchmark cryptocurrency in 11 month 18 The daily price is about the same as that at the end of the first quarter . With the increase of market depth and adoption rate , The decline in volatility is the continuing trend we see , At the same time, prices also tend to rise .2021 The beginning of the year was a milestone for the bitcoin , Unlike most major asset classes （ S & P in particular 500 Index ） comparison , Cryptocurrency 260 Day volatility fell to its lowest level ever . To 2021 year , The benchmark cryptocurrency rose about 100%, It should be slightly lower than the average price this year 50,000 Around the dollar, we began to find the support layer .

Figure ten ： Bitcoin was flat in the fourth quarter compared with the first quarter （ Mark the time ）

About... In the second quarter 50% The decline in should help consolidate the foundation , We think bitcoin is going to 10 The potential ratio of US $10000 to US $10000 remains at 5 The potential of less than $10000 is greater .(11/19/21)

Ethereum bull market

2022 year , Higher prices may stop Ethereum's bull market

Demand is increasing , The supply is decreasing , Ethereum's position as a digital center of Finance and money is the basis for further price appreciation . Ethereum is in 2021 Has always been the best performing major encryption asset , We expect a decline of about... In the first half of this year 60% after , This trend will continue .

The price range of Ethereum bull market is 4000-5000 dollar

Ethereum enters 2022 year , Increased usage , Supply is falling , At the same time, it has withstood a sharp adjustment this year . The key question is , How much higher prices may it take to recover from excessively rising prices , And before finding a responsive buyer , How deep is the support rate of the second largest cryptocurrency likely to decline . Figure 11 depicts a new bull market we see , This is falling to 7 Monthly low of about 60% In the background of . This callback helped establish 4000 The dollar is the key resistance level ,2000 The dollar is the support . What used to be resistance has now become support ,4000 The dollar could become 2022 The key fulcrum of the year .

Figure eleven ： There is no reason to complicate the bull market

As an irreplaceable token (NFTs) And the main denominator of the platform token used for cryptocurrency , Ethereum is in 2021 Its practicability was established in , We expect 2022 The year will be based on this . Success leads to competition , But the result is that the so-called Ethereum killers come and go, wave after wave .

Ethereum is bitcoin ETF The biggest beneficiary of

Since the launch of the first trading fund to track bitcoin on the US exchange , The fact that Ethereum has been doing well may indicate , The second largest cryptocurrency will usher in a more lasting bull market . from 10 month 19 Japan Proshares Bitcoin strategy ETF（BITO） From the day before launch , Ethereum's share price rose about 20%. Bitcoin fell about 8%. Ethereum seems to be in the early stages of becoming Internet collateral , And build DeFi、 Financial technology and NFTs The center of the platform .

Figure twelve ： American bitcoin ETF Performance since launch

stay 2021 In the context of the change of the agreement in , Reduced supply increases the base below Ethereum prices . If the Chicago Mercantile Exchange （CME） The increase in trading volume of futures contracts and open interest can be used as a guide , So tracking bitcoin Futures ETF It should be just a matter of time .

Cryptocurrency 、DeFi And the rise of Ethereum

Ethereum is leading the way in digitalization 、 General certification 、DeFi、 Financial technology and NFTs Take the lead in the wave . Figure 13 depicts the price of the second largest cryptocurrency , And Coinmarketcap The total market value of cryptocurrency assets is roughly parallel . majority NFT Priced in Ethereum , This means that the expanding ecosystem represents a response to ETH The needs of . Bitcoin is gradually becoming a global digital reserve asset , Ethereum is being used as collateral for the Internet .Tether Is the most widely traded encrypted asset . The popular game of making money while playing 《Axies Infinity》 Run on the Ethereum network .

according to Etherchain.org The data of ,8 Early to 10 month 26 Japan , There are about 63 m ETH（ About the normal supply of 50%） Get off the shelf , And since 2020 year 8 The average monthly supply since January is about 41 m .

Fig13 ： The etheric fang - Encryption platform , Internet collateral

Ethereum has gained depth and dominance . Success leads to competition , There are many potential Ethereum killers , But we see that this second-largest cryptocurrency has withstood the challenge to its leadership .

Ethereum supply may plummet

There may be many problems when upgrading new technologies , But we see , With the continuous decline of supply increment , The market is maturing , If economic rules apply , It's positive for Ethereum's price . Figure 14 depicts in 8 After the agreement to remove tokens from circulation was changed at the beginning of the month , The supply of new Ethereum is decreasing faster . This is the first time , Between the number of new Ethereum tokens and the total amount of outstanding money 52 The weekly rate of change is expected to fall to... For the first time 4% following . The demand for the second largest cryptocurrency is not so direct , But the supply may be lower than bitcoin , Bitcoin has fallen less than this year 2%.

Fig14 ： The supply trend is conducive to the rise of Ethereum price