current position:Home>Intensive reading of MESARI cryptocurrency annual report (Part I)

Intensive reading of MESARI cryptocurrency annual report (Part I)

2022-02-02 10:04:10 Bi Chake

Believe in care Crypto My friends have recently come from various channels , More or less noticed Messari This annual report on cryptocurrency .

Let's start with a brief introduction Messari This company ,Messari Is a company headquartered in New York , Founded on 2018 Blockchain data analysis startups in ,Messari The company uses open source tools to build a set of blockchain database , The stored data information includes the funds of each blockchain project 、 Development history 、 Management structure 、 And supply planning , It aims to increase the transparency of financial disclosure in the cryptocurrency market through strong data analysis .Messari So far, it has become the world's top cryptocurrency market analysis institution , So its annual report , Have to see .

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But this report is too long , This article tries to refine this report , Extract what I think is more valuable , Share with you , Of course, this extraction is more subjective , A lot of people are not interested in just one stroke .

First, let's talk about the overall reading method of this report :

1、 If you just want to get a general idea , Look, refining is enough ;
2、 If you are a deep practitioner in this industry , Or intend to be deeply involved in this field , I suggest you read it carefully , Here is the original link https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf;
3、 The content of the article is only for the interpretation of industry reports , Any project involved 、 Tokens, etc. are not used as any financial advice .

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Chapter one Top ten investment topics in the encryption market
1、 The collapse of institutional trust
Today, 70% Of Americans no longer agree with Congress , Cryptocurrency is the vote against centralized institutions .
2、 Encrypted world /Web3 The arrival of is inevitable

Chris Dixon Call it “ Using tokens as a medium , The Internet, which is jointly owned by the builder and the user ”.

Eshita take Web1 To Web2 To Web3 The evolution of is described as from “ Read only to write read , Then to write 、 read 、 Have ”.

Whatever model you like , In the long run , The user is in web3 The profit from the is higher than web2( Monopolized Internet economy ) Of .

DeFi Provides... For savers 5% Annual income of , Wall Street has only 0.5%.

NFT( Heterogeneous token ) The emergence of provides creators with greater opportunities to make money , Not like Hollywood 50% Share of .

and GameFi and SocialFi The emergence of broke the monopoly situation , Internet leading enterprises will lose 100% Market share , At the same time, the institutional risk is also reduced .

Cryptocurrency market to 2030 There will be an order of magnitude growth in . therefore , I divide the follow-up trend into three situations :
1、 The most likely is , In the market 2022 It will experience explosive growth before the end of the first quarter of the year , Then into a shallow but long and painful bear market ;
2、 The whole industry soared , Directly create 20 Trillion dollar bubble , And last for a whole year (2022), Comparable to the current prosperous Internet industry — — Although it sounds more like a joke , But considering the loose monetary policy around the world 、 The government deficit has been expanding and the development momentum of cryptocurrency market is surging , It's not impossible .
3、 The market rose slowly and steadily , Until forever .(“ Supercycle ” theory ).
3、 Bridge 、NFTs as well as DAOs
These three are Web3 Particularly underdeveloped areas , It is also the growth point in the later stage .
4、 Decoupling of the encryption market
This section comes from Ari Paul An article from , The main idea is 4 Years ago ,Defi and NFTs It basically doesn't exist ,” Decentralized file storage ”、” Smart contract platform ”、” privacy ” The relationship between cryptocurrency and others is fragmented . Now? ,defi yield farmmer perhaps NFT Speculators can become a full-time career , You even need a small team to follow up every track , To keep up with the pace of the market .”
5、 permanent ( risk ) capital : admission , Elimination and growth , Never leave
In the context of negative interest rates , The allocators of large capital are continuously improving the efficiency of asset allocation , Most people can no longer ignore the encryption market .
6、 Where is the upper limit of the encryption market ?

We all know “ crash ” Coming soon , This cycle may be smoother than before , But as we said before, the market still exists “ Waste heat ”, So before the crash , How much room is left for the market to rise ?“ Touch the top ” What is your signal ? yes Shiba Inu market caps The market value of 300 Billion dollars ? Or times square NFT Where's your billboard ?

Now let's talk about what I think “ Touch the top ” The signal of , Start with bitcoin .
1、 The currency : The best judgment may be made by Coin Metrics Popularized “market value to realized value”. This is a ratio , The market value of bitcoin in free circulation ( The amount of money in circulation in the past five years ) With its “ Cash value ”( The sum of the last circulation price of each bitcoin on the chain in the current time ) Compared to get . whenever MVRV achieve 3 when , It's the best time for you to benefit ( When MVRV Fell to 1 Following time , You can sell a kidney to buy )

If history repeats , What it will mean ? This year's MVRV Reach... Again 3 when , The price of bitcoin will reach 100,000–125,000 US dollar level !

2、 The etheric fang :ETH Can surpass in this cycle BTC Do you ? The answer is unlikely .

3、Solana Other public chains : Market competition has two points , Business development ( Application creation and deployment ) And ecological drainage ( Whether developers can be attracted to build projects on non Ethereum blockchain ).

4、DeFi:DeFi Our long-term expectations are excellent , So you can short banks ( Proceed with caution ).

5、NFTs: The development prospect of this field is quite good , The expected scale is terrible . But to a greater extent, it just shows NFT The caster still has a great chance , And there is still a lot of room for market infrastructure construction , Can't explain most specific NFT Investability of the project .

7、 The bear market is long

After the market collapse, we must first return to our original heart , Do you still believe in everything in the encrypted world , You need to meditate on the following questions .

1、 Whether the centralized world is really going to decline ?
2、 some time ,Web3 Is it worthy of our expectation to fight against the traditional world “ chip ”?
3、 The components of the new field we envision ( Bridge 、DAO、NFTs) Whether it is still worth a lot of investment in the next stage ?
4、 In the next downlink cycle , Is it easier to find projects with strong fundamentals ?
5、 Is there still enough money available to fund interesting projects ?
6、 Do you still believe that the encryption market is 5–10 The market will return to the bull market during the year ?

If you still believe in all this , Please put on your helmet , Embrace the cold winter , And pay attention to these “ Winter survival skills ”: Leverage as soon as possible , Look at the timing of tax payment , Timely cash , Don't try to speculate “ Touch the top ” Time .

About leverage : If you are not a professional trader , Your leverage is just a transfer of funds in the eyes of professionals .

About taxes : stay 12 month , Remember to sell and cash , Because you still have to bear taxes . If you are in the 2021 year 1 month 1 Start holding 10,000 dollar , By trade , stay 12 month 31 Daily holding 10 Thousands of dollars , And then in 2022 year 1 month 1 Daily loss to 25000 element . Then you owe the government more money than you hold (@chirsisme remarks : This may also be the reason why most people choose to drop their bags at the end of the year , Because taxes don't cross a year ,12 You need to pay taxes in a month ).

About bears : Please don't short .
Another thing is to remind speculators , They will feel that this is a great time to buy low-priced currencies in a bear market . But the market can collapse more than you think , The price of the currency will fall lower than you think , The bear market will be longer than you think .

8、 Public choice :Coinbase Open the door to the traditional market
Cryptocurrency IPO and ETF The birth of cryptocurrency is more important to attract institutions and strengthen the mainstream recognition of cryptocurrency , Rather than helping retail investors get returns .
9、 Imitation disk and wind direction
The encryption market is often social and memetic .(@chirsisme remarks : Recognize this attribute of the encryption market , Just ask us before the next bull market , Be sure to find one or more emerging SHIB)
10、 information disclosure ( Non investment opinion )
Here's a list of messari The position of the analyst team and the outlook of the market sector next year , More people , Miscellaneous items , There's no need to talk one by one . I'll refine it as follows :

Look forward to :DeFi1.0 Project “ The Renaissance ”; Decentralized Cloud Computing (RNDR、AKT etc. ), All Multi Chain ecology and two-tier applications , Ethereum expansion solution ( especially ZK-Rollups),

web3(AR、GRT、AKT、LPT、POOL、Akash、Mirror)、NFT(RARI、RARE、NFTX、Fractional.art),

Data availability layer (Ceramic、 Celestia), Liquidity pledge agreement (Lido、Rocket Pool、Acala、Umee)

Bearish :ATOM,monolith, All Ethereum killers are overvalued , So bearish .
forecast :RON>SLP But it's hard to say ( once Ronin Of LM Reward exhaustion ,SLP It's hard to last ).

Chapter two 10 A person worthy of attention
1、WAGMI
We’re all going to make it, And the people ( This is the buzzword borrowed by the author , We can understand that we pay attention to others first )
2、 Big shot :Samani, CMS, Su Zhu
Kyle Samani Of Multicoin Capital,Su Zhu Of “ Three arrows capital ”,CMS Holding company .
3、Emilie Choi, Coinbase
Coinbase Ventures Of Emilie.
4、Devin Finzer, OpenSea, Created a track — NFT marketplace, Others imitate
5、Dan Robinson & Dave White, Paradigm
White hat hackers and tech investors , help UNI Built V3,Paradigm Not just an investment institution , Made too many contributions
6、Jeff Zirlin “The Jiho”, Axie Infinity, It is also a track leader
7、Jay Graber, Bluesky & Tess Rinearson, Twitter
8、 Blockchain Association Kristin Smith Associations and Katie Haun,a16z.a16z There is a microphone with great influence
9、Hester Peirce Commissioner, ,SEC
She's more like the commander of the night watchman , Against white walkers without souls — — SEC chairman Gensler.Gensler My mission in life is to be the Minister of Finance , And by all means , Even if it means weakening an emerging industry , It has set the American scientific and technological community back ten years .
10、Do Kwon, Terraform laboratory .

The third chapter About bitcoin 10 Think about it
1、 Bitcoin has been accepted by institutions ;
2、 Ethereum is likely to surpass bitcoin next year 20%;
3、 Short meme,Zcash and Monero;
4、BTC Store multiple chains , And become other L1 Our reserves ;
5、 image Rune Such a cross block chain bridging protocol will release more point-to-point exchange ;
6、 In the next five years , Locked in something like ETF Of the tools BTC The total amount will remain at... Of the supply of circulating bitcoin 10% following ;
7、 It is predicted that the mining industry will return to the mainland in the middle of this year (70% The confidence of the )( This may be that the author doesn't know much about China , We all know that , Next to impossible )

Chapter four Cryptocurrency policy in the United States

( This section talks about the impact of various political territories of the United States on the cryptocurrency market , Can be ignored )
1. American battlefield
Republican regulators ( up to now ) When it comes to cryptocurrency , It seems more compassionate and reasonable . Democrats , Is hostile to cryptocurrency .
2. Real risk and self-regulation
Most of the real policy risks posed by cryptocurrencies , It can be solved , We have many remarkable opportunities , Can build a good relationship with policy makers , And eliminate the crisis before it occurs .
3. The financial stability board (FSOC) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) The dominant position
In the U.S. , Cryptocurrency is regulated by the financial services oversight commission (FSOC) And its 10 At the mercy of two voting members . And the Federal Reserve (Fed)、 The Ministry of Finance 、 The commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)、 The securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)、 Occ (OCC)、 Federal Deposit Insurance Commission ( FDIC)、 Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPB) And other institutions that are not directly related to cryptocurrency .

The Ministry of Finance : Stephen · Mnuchin is not an ally of cryptocurrency , Janet · Yellen is more opposed to cryptocurrency .

Securities and Exchange Commission : Gary - Gensler (Gary Gensler) It's not friendly to the encryption market .

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission : None of the current members is friendly to cryptocurrency , The vacant seats have not been filled quickly . This is a DeFi The rhythm of law enforcement action is about to begin ?
Office of the general auditor of the United States currency : Next term OCC The chairman may be a real Communist , And we know that the Ministry of finance is promoting the regulation of stable currency issuers as banks .
Consumer Financial Protection Agency : The CFPA is Elizabeth Warren's child , And she hates cryptocurrency , And I hope the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will crack down on cryptocurrency “ Abuse ”.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation : chairman Jelena McWilliams Encryption friendly , unfortunately , Compared with other institutions , The FDIC has little role in cryptocurrency .

4. Encryption Alliance ( Private encryption organizations )
Token Center :OG Think tanks , Bitcoin centric .
Blockchain Association : Top trade associations , Ripo is a member ,Messari It's also .Binance US Become a member , But it led to Coinbase Your defection .
Encryption Innovation Committee : The new Trade Association , from Paradigm Take the lead .
a16z The policy team : Huge number of employees and top consulting talents 、 Huge financial resources 、 Influential founder and encryption Fund GP, Represents the a16z The policy team has a broad portfolio .
Digital chamber of Commerce : They are one of the oldest advocacy groups in Washington .
The fifth part Market infrastructure

1、 Bitcoin futures ETF
This thing is bullshit :State-Sponsored Pieces of Shit
For structural reasons ( Futures should be extended continuously ) Investors have to pay more every year 5% - 10% Cost of
SEC The chairman is a big liar , have no idea of Crypto Products
GBTC The annual management fee is 2%,DCG Fully owned ,GBTC Not really ETF, It's a closed plate .GBTC The premium can be as high as... In the first quarter 20%, The latter are all negative premiums over -10%
Barry Silbert (DCG Boss ) and Gary Gensler(SEC chairman ), The two colluded to pit the investor's money , Come up with GBTC Such products .
2、 To loan
Crypto Our lending needs regulation
4、 CeFi and TradFi
Traditional finance will eventually enter Crypto, But there may be no chance at that time , Regulatory considerations put them under a lot of constraints ;
Crypto The original company of centralized finance in China is the biggest winner
Compared with what traditional financial companies provide Crypto service , Investors won't wait .Genesis,Binance,FTX,Coinbase These companies have a higher priority than Goldman Sachs ,CME,Fidelity
5、 Central exchange
First tier :Coinbase,FTX,Binance
The second tier :Kraken,Huobi,Kucoin,Gemini,OKEx,Bifinex
Local exchanges :Upbit- South Korea ,bitFlyer- Japan ,Bisto- Latin America ,Coinswitch Kuber- India ,Luno- Africa, etc
Coinbase There are many advantages : Steady growth , First mover advantage , Free publicity brought by the first listing , Capital advantages, etc . In the future, they will Web3 Your attempt will be very interesting : wallet 、DAO、NFT etc.
Binance Maximum , But being chased by global regulators .CZ Slowly and finally ready to find a place to stabilize in terms of compliance , Probably Binance Will accept a government investment , Maybe Singapore
FTX The fastest growing . Derivatives are doing very well , Products made by traders for traders , bought Blockfolio, Donate money to the president of the United States , Do product publicity in sports , To make the Solana wait .
6、Crypto Stocks
Chatting Republic, An early equity investment platform for qualified investors only
Republic And a new product ,Initial Litigating Offerings
Republic Make concerted efforts to provide relevant services under the compliance supervision of the United States
7、Staking
Hosting and hosting services , also Staking Cloud services (Coinbase Cloud) It's all big tracks , And many traditional institutions have entered Crypto Then the first stop of interest , When it comes to safety, it's very critical .
8、Coinlist
Coinlist Our financing projects have performed very well , For investors, the rate of return is very high . But it's not open to Americans . Most of the events even won ETH.
9、RegTech
This part mainly talks about , If the Crypto And concerns . So some compliance related technologies / Data companies are a better place to understand Crypto. These companies include Chainalysis,Elliptic,Ciphertrace,TaxBit wait .
10、 Innovation of payment
Each time USDC When you transfer money, you'll be moved to cry , Why can it be so convenient !
Several items were mentioned , With the author's own investment :Juno,Superfluid,Gitcoin,The Giving Block,Valiu
There has also been a lot of progress in other areas of payment :Coinbase and Visa cooperation , Launched Coinbase Card,BlockFi Announce bitcoin rewards for credit cards ,Stripe To make the Crypto The team also put Paradigm Of Matt Huang Joined the board of Directors ,Mastercard and Bakkt Cooperation and so on
11、 The impact of US dollar crypto stable currency on national security
This part mainly talks about the importance of stabilizing the dollar , In particular, it exports US dollar stable currency all over the world , Help the United States continue to maintain its dominant position . So the United States / The Fed should make good use of private dollars , It's the dollar stabilization currency
12、DCEP
Isn't this a perfect tool for the authorities to track and monitor everyone's financial records ?
But if DCEP It has a two-tier structure , A layer of transparent pool structure , The pool structure is opaque , Anonymity . Then the second floor has a good chance .
13、Fedcoins & In the west CBDC
Hesperian CBDC You will lose . The main reason is that the speed is slow , There is not such a good multi sectoral collaboration to promote , There is no force to promote and large-scale pilot projects
CBDC It's a sharp weapon to steal privacy , And steal everyone's savings through negative interest rates
14、 USDC and Jeremy(USDC Of Founder)
Jeremy Namely Crypto God of dollars
Compliant dollar stable currency perfect access Crypto ecology — USDC & PAX
USDC On all major platforms :Binance,Coinbase,Kraken,FTX etc.
USDC In compliance 、DeFi The compatibility of 、 Central exchange 、 Multi Chain Collaborative Development and even the acceptance of traditional industries are second to none
15、 Novi(Facebook Of Crypto Payment business )
Paxos and PayPal cooperation , Integrated into Venmo Inside ;Paxos As USDC There is a great need for alternatives to
Novi There are also plans to accept Paxos Of USDP

copyright notice
author[Bi Chake],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
https://en.netfreeman.com/2022/02/202202021004039288.html

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